Yesterday, we said that Vegas was a clear favourite to win their Semi-Final against Montreal, but that you can’t count Montreal out.  Montreal proved that last night, as they skated to an exciting 3-2 win to even the series at 1 game apiece.  Montreal took a 2-0 lead after the first period, and stretched it to a 3 goal lead late in the second, before defenceman Alex Pietrangelo got Vegas on the board.  Bolstered by yet another sell-out crowd, Vegas had the pressure on, and finally scored again with Pietrangelo again tickling the twine with just over 5 minutes left in the game.  In an exciting last 5 minutes, goalie Carey Price again shone for the Canadiens, as Montreal held on for the hard-fought victory.  The series now heads to Montreal, where the Canadian government has given a COVID-19 quarantine exemption for both teams so that they don’t have to isolate for 14 days.  We’ve still got Vegas as the favourite to win the series, with a 64.6% chance, but that’s less than a 2-in-3 chance!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay travels to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders in the 3rd game of their series.  We’re making that semi-final a toss-up, as the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have a slight 50.6% edge of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal 3 at Vegas 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 64.6% chance of winning the series, down from 82.9%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning (▼18.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼24.1)
  • In 5 games: 20.9% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 22.2% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.5% (▲8.1)
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning (▲18.3)
  • In 7 games: 12.1% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 14.7% (▲7.8)
  • In 5 games: 8.6% (▲5.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Game 2 of the New York Islanders / Tampa Bay semi-final went last night, and Tampa Bay was able to even the series up with a 4-2 win in a penalty-filled game.  New York amassed 66 penalty minutes and Tampa Bay 42, although each team only managed one power play goal.  Tampa Bay never trailed in the game.  With the win, the series is tied 1-1 and the teams head to the old barn on Long Island for Game 3 tomorrow night.  Although we’ve got Tampa Bay rated as the stronger team, because the Islanders now have home ice advantage (3 of the remaining 5 games will be in New York), this series is pretty much a toss-up, with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team giving Tampa Bay a slight 50.8% / 49.2% edge!

In tonight’s game, Vegas hosts Montreal, with a 1-0 lead in that series.  Vegas is the top-rated team left in the playoffs, and we’re giving them an 82.9% chance of winning the series, and almost a 1-in-4 chance of sweeping the series (24.1%).  But Montreal has faced long odds before, so they can’t be counted out!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 50.8% chance of winning the series, up from 35.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning (▲15.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 17.3% (▲5.5)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▲3.6)
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning (▼15.2)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 20.2% (▲0.7)
  • In 5 games: 14.2% (▼3.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 1-0
• Vegas has an 82.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Vegas leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 24.1%
  • In 5 games: 28.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 6.9%
  • In 5 games: 2.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

In the first game of the entire NHL season to be played between a Canadian team and an American team, Vegas came out on top 4-1 to take a 1-0 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  The game was pretty close in the first period, with Vegas coming out of the period with a 1-0 lead.  But, Montreal took 3 penalties in the second period, killing any momentum they had, and were down 3-1 after that period.  In the final frame, Vegas scored once more halfway through the period, and despite Montreal pulling their goalie for the last 4 minutes of the game, neither team was able to score, and the game ended 4-1.  With the win, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Vegas an 82.9% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s game, the New York Islanders play Tampa Bay in sunny Florida for the second game of that series.  The Islanders lead the series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 64.4% chance of winning the series.

In other McDonald Power Rating news, the CFL announced yesterday that they would start the 2021 schedule on August 5th.  The truncated 14-game per team schedule will be released today, culminating with the Grey Cup in Hamilton on December 12th.  Look for the McDonald CFL Power Ratings season preview coming out in early August.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

June 14th: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4

• Vegas leads series 1-0
• Vegas now has a 82.9% chance of winning the series, up from 72.4%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 4 games: 24.1% (▲8.0)
  • In 5 games: 28.4% (▲5.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.1)
  • In 7 games: 13.4% (▼2.3)
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 7 games: 7.5% (▼1.2)
  • In 6 games: 6.9% (▼3.0)
  • In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.1)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• New York Islanders lead series 1-0
• New York Islanders have a 64.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Vegas leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 24.1%
  • In 5 games: 28.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 6.9%
  • In 5 games: 2.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 17.4%
  • In 4 games: 15.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The Stanley Cup Semi-Finals have started!  There will be one game a day, alternating between series each day.  Yesterday, the first game of the 2nd-seeded team, Tampa Bay, vs. the 3rd-seeded team, New York Islanders, was played.  In a close-fought contest, the Islanders took the lead 2-0 in the third period, then held off a late charge to win 2-1.  With the goalie pulled, the Isles took a penalty with 1:38 left in the game.  Tampa Bay took advantage of the 6 on 4 situation to pull within one with 53 seconds left, but could manage no more.  With the win, the Islanders are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win this semi-final, with a 64.4% chance of winning.

In tonight’s game, top-seeded Vegas hosts 4th-seeded Montreal in the first game of the other Semi-Final.  Vegas is a clear favourite, with the MNPR group giving them a 72.4% chance of winning the series.  But, you can’t count out Montreal, as they’ve been the underdog in their first two series and won both.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1

• New York Islanders lead series 1-0
• New York Islanders now have a 64.4% chance of winning, up from 44.2%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning (▼20.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.0)
  • In 5 games: 7.5% (▼9.0)
  • In 6 games: 11.8% (▼2.6)
  • In 7 games: 16.2% (▲0.4)
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning (▲20.2)
  • In 7 games: 11.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲4.3)
  • In 5 games: 17.4% (▲6.8)
  • In 4 games: 15.6% (▲9.0)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

June 14th: Montreal at Vegas

• Series tied 0-0
• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal at Vegas
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 16.1%
  • In 5 games: 23.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.7%
• Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 5.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 17.4%
  • In 4 games: 15.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The division finals are done, and we’ve got the matchups and schedule finalized for the Stanley Cup semi-finals!

In yesterday’s game, Vegas beat Colorado 6-3 to win the West Division final 4 games to 2.  The game was tied 3-3 late in the second period, but Vegas scored again to head into the final period 4-3, then took control of the third ahead of star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to win it 6-3, with one of those goals coming on an open net.  Vegas will now face Montreal in the semi-finals.

The semi-finals start on Sunday, when the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay.  We’re giving Tampa Bay the edge in that series, 56% to 44%, so it’s pretty close.  In the other series, we’re making Vegas a favourite over Montreal, 72% to 28%, but Montreal is well-rested and have surprised so far in these playoffs.  The Canadian government has given permission for Vegas to cross the border, so both teams will have home games.

After the Division finals, we’ve now got Vegas as our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 41.7%, followed by Tampa Bay (27.6%), New York Islanders (20.6%), and Montreal (10.1%).  Sadly, that means we’re only giving a Candian team a 10.1% chance of winning the Cup, but that’s up from 8.5% before the Division finals and down from 18.1% before the playoffs began.  Looking back at our preseason predictions, we gave a Canadian team a 21.3% chance of hoisting the prize. 

Yesterday’s Games

West Division Final

Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

• Vegas wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

Next Playoff Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

June 13th: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 0-0

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal at Vegas
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 16.1%
  • In 5 games: 23.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.7%
• Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 5.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.5%
  • In 6 games: 14.4%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 10.6%
  • In 4 games: 6.6%

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Today’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report is brought to you by the number 1: one game last night, one series finished, one team moves on, one team goes home, and there’s one series left to be decided in the Division finals!

Boston travelled to New York to face the Islanders, down 3-2 in the series.  After the first period, the game was tied 1-1, but New York scored three times in the second period to take a 4-1 lead.  The Isles tough defense shut down Boston in the final frame, holding them to only 5 shots in the third period, although they did score once to make it 4-2.  But, the Islanders scored two empty net goals late in the game to finish off the Bruins 6-2.  New York will face Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup semi-finals, the same matchup as last year when the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Lightning defeated the Islanders in 6 games.

There’s only one Division final left to be decided, as Colorado travels to Vegas tonight for Game 6 of the West Division final.  Vegas leads the series 3-2, and would prefer to close the series out at home.  We’re giving Vegas the edge in the series, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a 51.0% chance of finishing it off with a victory tonight.  The winner of this series will face Montreal in the semi-finals.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

• New York Islanders win series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

Today’s Game

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 3-2
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.4%
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.6%
  • In 6 games: 51.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

It was a goalies’ night last night in the NHL Playoffs!  In the first game of the night, Tampa Bay defeated home team Carolina 2-0 to win the Central Division final 4 games to 1.  Andrei Vasilevskiy had a 29-shot shutout for Tampa Bay.  The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Boston / New York Islanders series in the next round.

In the second game, Vegas visited Colorado with the West Division final tied 2 games apiece.  Colorado took a 2-0 lead into the third period, but Vegas scored quickly, 1:03 into the period to make it 2-1, and then tied it up at 4:07.  That was it for scoring in regulation time.  In the overtime period, Vegas made quick work of Colorado when Mark Stone scored at 0:50 to wrap up the game.  The real star of the game, though, was Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was sensational in picking up his 88th career playoff win, tying him for fourth on the all-time list with Billy Smith and Ed Belfour.  With the 3-2 series lead, we’re now giving Vegas the edge, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a slight 51.0% edge of winning Game 6 at home.

In tonight’s game, Boston visits the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum to face the New York Islanders.  The Isles lead the series 3 games to 2, and we’re giving them a 54.0% chance of wrapping the series up tonight, and a 72.4% chance of winning the series overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

West Division Final

Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)

• Vegas leads series 3-2
• Vegas now has a 69.6% chance of winning the series, up from 37.6%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning (▼32.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼32.8)
  • In 7 games: 30.4% (▲0.8)
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning(▲32.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.6% (▲0.4)
  • In 6 games: 51.0% (▲31.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

• New York Islanders lead series 3-2
• New York Islanders have a 72.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Boston 28%, New York Islanders 72%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 27.6%
• New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.4%
  • In 6 games: 54.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.4%
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.6%
  • In 6 games: 51.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

Well, the first series of the 2nd round of the playoffs is done!  In a surprise, Montreal swept Winnipeg 4 games to 0, with a 3-2 overtime win yesterday!  Montreal has now won 7 straight games, and despite being the lowest-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, they are the first team to make it through to the Stanley Cup Semi-Finals.  They will face the winner of the Vegas / Colorado West Division final.  It took overtime last night, but Tyler Toffoli scored 1:39 into the extra frame to win it for Montreal.  Winnipeg only managed 16 shots, while Montreal had 42.

In the first game of the night, the New York Islanders surprised host Boston 5-4.  That gives the Islanders a 3-2 series lead, heading back home to the old barn on Long Island.  Boston outshot New York 44-19, and New York didn’t get a shot in the last 18 minutes of the game, but did have a 5-2 lead at that point, and were able to hang on despite allowing two more Boston goals.  With the 3-2 series lead, we’re now giving the Isles a 72.4% chance of winning the series, and a 54.0% chance of winning the next game at home.

Tonight’s games feature Tampa Bay venturing to Carolina, looking to finish their series on the road, and Vegas in Colorado, with that series all tied up.  Tampa Bay, with a 3-1 series lead, have an 85.9% chance of winning the series, while in the West Division final, we’re giving Colorado a 62.4% edge to win their series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

New York Islanders 5 at Boston Bruins 4

• New York Islanders lead series 3-2
• New York Islanders now have a 72.4% chance of winning the series, up from 40.6%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning (▼31.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼30.6)
  • In 7 games: 27.6% (▼1.1)
• New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning (▲31.8)
  • In 7 games: 18.4% (▼0.7)
  • In 6 games: 54.0% (▲32.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division Final

Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay at Carolina

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay has an 85.9% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Vegas at Colorado

• Series tied 2-2
• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Boston 28%, New York Islanders 72%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 27.6%
• New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.4%
  • In 6 games: 54.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 62%, Vegas 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.8%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.2%
  • In 6 games: 19.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

Home, sweet home!  In both games yesterday, the home team won, both by scores of 5-1!

In the first game of the day, Montreal totally dominated Winnipeg, defeating them 5-1.  Montreal now has a 3-0 series lead, and we’re giving them a 93.3% chance of winning the series.  These two teams play again tonight; this North Division final was the last series to start in this round of the playoffs, and it may be the first to finish, as we’re giving Montreal a 58.1% chance of a sweep.  Bottom-ranked Montreal has won their last 6 games in a row, the same as top-ranked Colorado had done to open the playoffs!

In the other game, Vegas, playing at home in front of a raucous sell-out crowd, beat Colorado 5-1.  Jonathan Marchessault had a hat trick for Vegas, who have tied the series 2-2.  After the second game, when Colorado was leading the series 2-0, we predicted that they had an 89.3% chance of winning the series; we’ve still got them as the favourites, but those odds are now down to 62.4%.  The teams travel back to Colorado for Game 5 tomorrow night.

In the other game tonight, besides Winnipeg at Montreal, the New York Islanders take on Boston at the TD Garden.  The teams split the first two games in Boston.  We’re giving Boston a slight edge in this series, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got a 59.4% chance of winning the East Division final.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5

• Montreal leads series 3-0
• Montreal now has a 93.3% chance of winning the series, up from 80.3%

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 6.7% chance of winning (▼13.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼6.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.7% (▼6.7)
• Montreal has a 93.3% chance of winning (▲13.0)
  • In 7 games: 4.3% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 12.4% (▼6.0)
  • In 5 games: 18.5% (▼2.1)
  • In 4 games: 58.1% (▲25.6)

West Division Final

Colorado 1 at Vegas 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Colorado now has a 62.4% chance of winning the series, down from 79.2%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning (▼16.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼34.9)
  • In 6 games: 32.8% (▲7.7)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲10.4)
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning (▲16.8)
  • In 7 games: 18.2% (▲6.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.4% (▲10.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division Final

New York Islanders at Boston Bruins

• Series tied 2-2
• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division Final

Winnipeg at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 3-0
• Montreal has an 93.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Boston 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.7%
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 62%, Vegas 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.8%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.2%
  • In 6 games: 19.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 7%, Montreal 93%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 6.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
• Montreal has a 93.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.4%
  • In 5 games: 18.5%
  • In 4 games: 58.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

There were two games on the playoff slate today.  In the first game, Tampa Bay hosted Carolina in the 4th game of the Central Division final, with a lead of 2 games to 1.  In a high scoring affair, Tampa Bay won 6-4.  There were 8 goals scored in the 2nd period, 4 for each team!  Tampa Bay led 1-0 after the first, but fell behind 4-2 at one point in the 2nd.  But, they took the lead 5-4 after 2, and scored one more in the 3rd to put the game away.  Tampa Bay now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them an 85.9% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the night, Boston played the New York Islanders in the old barn on Long Island.  Home ice was kind to the Isles as they won 4-1, scoring two empty net goals late in the 3rd period.  1st star of the game was Mathew Barzal, who scored the winning goal and assisted on New York’s first goal, and was also on the receiving end of a slash to the groin by Boston’s David Krejci.  That’s never fun.  But, the East Division final is now tied 2-2, and the teams head back to Boston with the Bruins favoured to win the series with a 59.4% chance of doing so.

Tonight’s games feature Winnipeg visiting Montreal, with Montreal leading the North Division final 2 games to 0, and Vegas hosting Colorado in the sold-out T-Mobile Arena.  Colorado leads the West Division final 2-1.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay now has an 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 66.9%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼19.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▼6.2)
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲19.0)
  • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲2.8)
  • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division Final

Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Boston now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning (▼16.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
  • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
  • In 7 games: 28.7% (▲9.1)
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▲16.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division Final

Winnipeg at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-0
• Montreal has an 80.3% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Boston 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.7%
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 34.9%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 6.3%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6%
  • In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%