There were two games on the playoff slate today.  In the first game, Tampa Bay hosted Carolina in the 4th game of the Central Division final, with a lead of 2 games to 1.  In a high scoring affair, Tampa Bay won 6-4.  There were 8 goals scored in the 2nd period, 4 for each team!  Tampa Bay led 1-0 after the first, but fell behind 4-2 at one point in the 2nd.  But, they took the lead 5-4 after 2, and scored one more in the 3rd to put the game away.  Tampa Bay now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them an 85.9% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the night, Boston played the New York Islanders in the old barn on Long Island.  Home ice was kind to the Isles as they won 4-1, scoring two empty net goals late in the 3rd period.  1st star of the game was Mathew Barzal, who scored the winning goal and assisted on New York’s first goal, and was also on the receiving end of a slash to the groin by Boston’s David Krejci.  That’s never fun.  But, the East Division final is now tied 2-2, and the teams head back to Boston with the Bruins favoured to win the series with a 59.4% chance of doing so.

Tonight’s games feature Winnipeg visiting Montreal, with Montreal leading the North Division final 2 games to 0, and Vegas hosting Colorado in the sold-out T-Mobile Arena.  Colorado leads the West Division final 2-1.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay now has an 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 66.9%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼19.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▼6.2)
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲19.0)
  • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲2.8)
  • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division Final

Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Boston now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning (▼16.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
  • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
  • In 7 games: 28.7% (▲9.1)
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▲16.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division Final

Winnipeg at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-0
• Montreal has an 80.3% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Boston 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.7%
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 34.9%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 6.3%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6%
  • In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%