What a week of hockey! As we march deeper into March, the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders, but that doesn’t mean the drama is dying down. While the top of the mountain remains steady, the middle of the pack is an absolute whirlwind of movement. We’re seeing traditional powerhouses find their second wind and division races that look like they’re headed for a photo finish.
Here is your NHL Power Rankings update for the week ending March 15, 2026.
The Elite Five
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Colorado (1, 1599) The Avalanche remain the gold standard. Despite a slight dip in their rating after a narrow loss to Edmonton, they still boast an 18% chance to hoist the Cup. They are the only team sitting with a rating near the 1600 mark, proving they are the team to beat.
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Buffalo (2, 1587) Buffalo is locked in. They’ve maintained their spot at number two and bolstered their Atlantic Division title hopes significantly. With a 13% chance at a championship, the Sabres are proving that their early-season success was no fluke.
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Dallas (3, 1583) The Stars are the hottest team in the top tier right now. A massive 7-2 statement win over Edmonton helped them hold their rank and close the gap on the leaders. Their Cup odds are now tied with Buffalo at 13%.
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Carolina (4, 1566) The Hurricanes continue to be the model of consistency. They aren’t moving up or down, but with a 10% chance to win it all and nearly guaranteed playoff positioning, they are exactly where they want to be heading into April.
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Tampa Bay (5, 1554) Tampa holds onto the final spot in the Elite Five. While they took a bit of a ratings hit this week, their playoff probability remains a rock-solid 98%. Never count out a veteran squad with this much championship pedigree.
Biggest Risers
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Edmonton (13, +4, 1503): The Oilers are surging! A huge week—highlighted by a gutsy win over Colorado—sees them jump four spots. Their playoff odds have climbed to 80%, making them a serious threat in the Pacific.
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Toronto (20, +4, 1486): Don’t look now, but the Maple Leafs are finding some rhythm. A four-spot jump is a nice morale booster, even if their playoff math remains a steep uphill climb.
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Columbus (9, +2, 1531): The Blue Jackets are the “quiet” contenders no more. A massive 16% jump in playoff odds this week puts them at a 67% chance to play past the regular season.
Biggest Fallers
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Minnesota (10, -4, 1530): It was a rough stretch for the Wild. Dropping four spots in the rankings and losing 16 points in their rating, they are struggling to find the net at the most critical time of the year.
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Florida (25, -3, 1476): The Panthers are sliding. A three-spot drop and a playoff probability stuck at a dismal 1% suggests the sun might be setting on their season.
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NY Islanders (17, -2, 1493): A minor slip for the Isles, but in a race this tight, every point matters. They’ll need to stabilize quickly to keep their 69% playoff hopes alive.
Division Dogfights
Atlantic Division Buffalo has seized control here. Their odds to win the division jumped to 60% this week, leaving Tampa Bay (30%) chasing. Montreal and Boston are still in the mix for seeding, but the Sabres are currently the class of the Atlantic.
Central Division We have a real fight on our hands. Colorado’s stranglehold on the division lead slipped by 11%, while Dallas saw their division-winning odds skyrocket by 12% (now at 17%). The Avalanche are still the favorites at 83%, but the Stars are officially within striking distance.
Metropolitan Division Carolina is essentially coasting at this point with a 92% chance to take the division crown. The real battle is for the remaining spots, where Pittsburgh (4% win odds), the Islanders (2%), and a surging Columbus (2%) are fighting for every inch of ice.
Pacific Division This is easily the most volatile race in the league. Anaheim leads the pack with a 36% chance to win the division, but Vegas (30%) and Edmonton (20%) are right on their heels. With only a 16% gap between the top three, this division title is coming down to the wire.
Shane’s View of the Playoff Picture
With only a few weeks left on the calendar, the playoff picture is shifting from a blurry mess to a high-definition battle. While some teams have already punched their tickets, others are staring down a math problem that gets harder with every passing night.
The boys in the back room have been working their abacuses overtime to analyze the situation. Here is their breakdown of the post-season probabilities across the league as of March 15, 2026.
Eastern Conference: The Atlantic Logjam and Metro Stability
Atlantic Division
The Atlantic is arguably the most competitive group in hockey right now. Buffalo (2, 1587) has all but secured their spot with odds at >99%, and Tampa Bay (5, 1554) is right behind them at 98%. However, the middle of the pack is where things get wild. Montreal (8, 1534) is looking comfortable at 87%, but the battle for the final seeds is a coin flip. Boston (11, -1, 1519) at 66% and Detroit (12, 1509) at 62% are currently holding off a late charge from Ottawa (6, +1, 1545), who sits at exactly 50%. For teams like Florida (25, -3, 1476) at 1% and Toronto (20, +4, 1486) at >1%, it’s likely time to start looking at draft boards.
Metropolitan Division
In the Metro, Carolina (4, 1566) is the undisputed king with >99% playoff odds. Behind them, Pittsburgh (7, +2, 1535) has used a strong week to climb to 82%. The drama here focuses on the third guaranteed spot and the Wild Card. NY Islanders (17, -2, 1493) at 69% and Columbus (9, +2, 1531) at 67% are neck-and-neck. Beyond that, the drop-off is steep: Philadelphia (23, +2, 1478) has a puncher’s chance at 11%, while Washington (15, -1, 1502) is fading fast at 6%. NY Rangers (29, +2, 1458) and New Jersey (30, -1, 1445) both sit at >1%.
Western Conference: Central Heavyweights and the Pacific Wild West
Central Division
The Central features the most dominant top-three in the league. Colorado (1, 1599), Dallas (3, 1583), and Minnesota (10, -4, 1530) are all sitting at >99% probability. The real question is whether Utah (13, 1503) can hold onto their 80% odds to secure the remaining slot. The chasing pack is struggling; Nashville (22, -1, 1481) at 18% and Winnipeg (18, -1, 1488) at 9% need a miracle run to displace the frontrunners. St. Louis (20, 1486) at 2% and Chicago (31, -1, 1432) at >1% are effectively out of the conversation.
Pacific Division
If you want drama, look to the Pacific. Unlike the other divisions, there are no “locks” here yet. Anaheim (25, 1476) leads the way at 90%, followed closely by Vegas (15, +1, 1502) at 87% and a surging Edmonton (13, +4, 1503) at 80%. The race for the final spots is a four-team scramble: San Jose (27, +1, 1471) is hanging on at 54%, while Seattle (19, 1487) at 44% and Los Angeles (24, -1, 1477) at 35% are still very much alive. It’s a stark contrast to the bottom of the division, where Calgary (28, -1, 1459) and Vancouver (32, 1381) are both mathematically dormant at >1%.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1599, ▼14)
Record: 44-12-9, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▼10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 10: Lost 4-3 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
- March 12: Won 5-1 @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1487)
- March 14: Lost 3-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1488)
Next week:
- March 16: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
- March 18: vs. Dallas Stars (3rd, 1583)
- March 20: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1432)
- March 22: @ Washington Capitals (15th, 1502)
2. Buffalo Sabres (1587, ▼9)
Record: 41-20-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 10: Won 6-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1471)
- March 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (15th, 1502)
- March 14: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
Next week:
- March 17: @ Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)
- March 19: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1471)
- March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1477)
- March 22: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1476)
3. Dallas Stars (1583, ▲7)
Record: 42-14-10, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- March 10: Won 2-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)
- March 12: Won 7-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
- March 14: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1509)
Next week:
- March 16: vs. Utah Mammoth (13th, 1503)
- March 18: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1599)
- March 21: @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1530)
- March 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)
4. Carolina Hurricanes (1566, ▼4)
Record: 42-18-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 10: Won in SO 5-4 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
- March 12: Lost 3-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (20th, 1486)
- March 14: Won 4-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1554)
Next week:
- March 17: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1531)
- March 18: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
- March 20: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
- March 22: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning (1554, ▼11)
Record: 40-21-4, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 10: Lost 5-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1531)
- March 12: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1509)
- March 14: Lost 4-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (4th, 1566)
Next week:
- March 17: @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1487)
- March 19: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1381)
- March 21: @ Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
- March 22: @ Calgary Flames (28th, 1459)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1599 (▼14) 2 Buffalo Sabres 1587 (▼9) 3 Dallas Stars 1583 (▲7) 4 Carolina Hurricanes 1566 (▼4) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 1554 (▼11) 6 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1545 (▲7) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1535 (▲2) 8 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1534 (▼7) 9 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1531 (▲7) 10 Minnesota Wild (▼4) 1530 (▼16) 11 Boston Bruins (▼1) 1519 (▼11) 12 Detroit Red Wings 1509 (▼11) 13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 1503 (▲13) 13 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1) 1503 (▼17) 15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1502 (▲8) 15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) 1502 (▲9) 17 New York Islanders (▼3) 1493 (▼2) 18 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1488 (▼2) 19 Seattle Kraken 1487 (▼1) 20 (tie) St. Louis Blues 1486 (▲1) 20 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 1486 (▲15) 22 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1481 (▲2) 23 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1478 (▼1) 24 Los Angeles Kings 1477 (▲5) 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1476 (▲7) 25 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) 1476 (▲1) 27 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1471 (▲11) 28 Calgary Flames (▼2) 1459 (▼11) 29 New York Rangers (▲2) 1458 (▲36) 30 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1445 31 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1432 (▼2) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1381 (▼11)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 92% (▲2) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 4% (▼3) 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 2% (▲1) 3 (tie) New York Islanders 2% 5 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 5 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres 60% (▲9) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 30% (▼7) 3 Montreal Canadiens 6% (▼1) 4 Boston Bruins (▲1) 2% (▲1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1% (▼2) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1% (▲1) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) <1% 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 83% (▼11) 2 Dallas Stars 17% (▲12) 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% 3 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 36% (▼1) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 30% (▲3) 3 Edmonton Oilers 20% (▲4) 4 San Jose Sharks 8% (▼1) 5 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 4% (▼5) 6 Los Angeles Kings 2% 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 82% (▼1) 3 New York Islanders 69% (▲1) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets 67% (▲13) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 11% (▼2) 6 Washington Capitals 6% (▼1) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres >99% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 98% (▼1) 3 Montreal Canadiens 87% (▼2) 4 Boston Bruins (▲1) 66% 5 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 62% (▼17) 6 Ottawa Senators 50% (▲10) 7 Florida Panthers 1% 8 Toronto Maple Leafs <1%
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Dallas Stars >99% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild >99% 4 Utah Mammoth 80% (▼13) 5 Nashville Predators 18% (▼5) 6 Winnipeg Jets 9% (▼7) 7 St. Louis Blues 2% (▼1) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 90% (▲4) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 87% (▲6) 3 Edmonton Oilers 80% (▲11) 4 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 54% (▲6) 5 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 44% (▼8) 6 Los Angeles Kings 35% (▲7) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% (▼2) 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 82% (▼10) 2 Dallas Stars 16% (▲11) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 2% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 18% (▼2) 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 13% 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 13% (▲3) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 10% 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 7% (▼1) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3) 4% (▲1) 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 4% 10 (tie) Boston Bruins 3% 10 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 3% (▲1) 10 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3) 3% (▲1) 10 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼3) 3% (▼1) 10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 3% (▲1) 15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 2% 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5) 1% (▼1) 22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 22 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) <1% (▼1)
