Shane's Computer Solution Repository

What a week of high-stakes hockey! As we slide into the final stretch of the regular season, the separation between the contenders and the pretenders has never been clearer. We have a new team at the summit of the league, several divisions effectively locked up, and a frantic scramble for those final wild-card invitations.

The Top 5

1. Buffalo (1, 1595): The Sabres have taken over the penthouse. With 13% Cup odds and a perfect week highlighted by a dominant win over Columbus, they are the team to beat heading into the postseason.
2. Colorado (2, -1, 1592): Despite a slight slip in the rankings, the Avalanche remain a juggernaut. They’ve locked up everything there is to lock up, proving they are built for the grind.
3. Carolina (3, +1, 1577): A massive week for the Hurricanes, including a 7-2 thrashing of Chicago, sees them climb into the top three. Their consistency is frightening.
4. Tampa Bay (4, -1, 1576): A tough week with losses to Buffalo and Ottawa caused a minor dip, but the Lightning remain firmly entrenched as a heavyweight contender.
5. Ottawa (5, +1, 1571): The Senators are officially the hottest ticket in town. A jump into the Top 5 comes on the back of a huge week where they sent a message to the rest of the Atlantic.

Biggest Risers

• Vegas (13, +4, 1509): The Golden Knights are finding their playoff gear at exactly the right time, surging four spots and seizing control of their division.
• Florida (25, +4, 1462): While the playoff dream has faded, the Panthers showed plenty of heart this week, climbing four spots in the rankings.
• Washington (8, +3, 1540): The Capitals are making a loud statement, moving up three spots and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive with a massive win over Pittsburgh.
• Los Angeles (21, +3, 1486): The Kings are charging hard, picking up 12 rating points and jumping three spots to solidify their position in the West.

Biggest Fallers

• Toronto (28, -6, 1456): A rough stretch for the Maple Leafs, who tumbled six spots in the rankings after a winless week.
• San Jose (26, -3, 1459): The Sharks continue to slide, dropping three spots as they struggle to find late-season momentum.

Division Dogfights

Atlantic

This was the week of the Sabre. Buffalo saw their division-winning odds skyrocket to 72% (a +49% swing), while Tampa Bay saw their chances fall to 22%.

Metropolitan

It is officially Carolina’s world. The Hurricanes have secured the top spot in the Metro, leaving the rest of the division to battle for positioning.

Central

Colorado has turned the Central into a victory lap, officially clinching the division and leaving no doubt about who owns the middle of the map.

Pacific

Things got wild out West. Vegas took a commanding lead in the division race, with their win odds jumping to 61% (+40%), while Edmonton (31%) and Anaheim (7%) both saw significant drops.

Playoff Picture

The Clinch Club

A huge round of applause for the teams that have officially punched their tickets!

• Colorado: A massive congratulations for clinching the President’s Trophy, the Central Division, and a Playoff Berth.
• Carolina: Congratulations on clinching the Metropolitan Division and a Playoff Berth.

The following have clinched playoff berths:

Eastern Conference

• Carolina
• Pittsburgh
• Boston
• Buffalo
• Montreal
• Ottawa
• Tampa Bay

Western Conference

• Colorado
• Dallas
• Minnesota
• Vegas

End of the Road

The following teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. While the season didn’t end with a trophy, we salute the effort.

Eastern Conference

• Florida
• New Jersey
• NY Islanders
• NY Rangers
• Toronto

Western Conference

• Calgary
• Chicago
• Seattle
• St. Louis
• Vancouver

Bubble Watch

The intensity is off the charts for these teams caught in the middle. Here are the biggest movers in the playoff probability race:

• Los Angeles (76% Playoff Odds): The Kings are the week’s biggest winners on the bubble, seeing a massive +31% swing in their postseason probability.
• Philadelphia (77% Playoff Odds): The Flyers are flying high after a +21% jump in their odds, making them a near-lock if they keep this pace.
• Washington (16% Playoff Odds): It’s a steep climb, but the Capitals kept the lights on with a +10% increase in their playoff chances.

And here’s the teams still fighting it out for those last playoff spots, along with our calculated odds of them making it.

Eastern Conference (1 spot left)

• Philadelphia: 94 pts, 2 games remaining, 77%
• Washington: 93 pts, 1 game remaining, 16%
• Columbus: 92 pts, 1 game remaining, 7%
• Detroit: 91 pts, 2 games remaining, <1%

Western Conference (4 spots left)

• Utah: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, >99%
• Edmonton: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, >99%
• Anaheim: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, 92%
• Los Angeles: 87 pts, 3 games remaining, 76%
• Nashville: 86 pts, 2 games remaining, 31%
• Winnipeg: 82 pts, 3 games remaining, 1%
• San Jose: 82 pts, 3 games remaining, 1%

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Buffalo Sabres ▲2 (1595, ▲18)

Record: 49-23-8, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 6: Won 4-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1576)
• April 8: Won 5-3 @ New York Rangers (30th, 1445)
• April 9: Won 5-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (16th, 1504)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1415)
• April 15: vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1554)

2. Colorado Avalanche (1592, ▲8)

Record: 52-16-11, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 100% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-1

• April 7: Won 3-1 @ St. Louis Blues (14th, 1505)
• April 9: Won 3-1 vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 11: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1509)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1512)
• April 14: @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 16: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1449)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1577, ▲11)

Record: 52-22-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 7: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1529)
• April 9: Won 7-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1415)
• April 11: Won 4-1 @ Utah Mammoth (14th, 1505)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1501)
• April 14: @ New York Islanders (23rd, 1468)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1576, ▼13)

Record: 49-25-6, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼5)

Last week: 1-3-0

• April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (1st, 1595)
• April 7: Lost 6-2 @ Ottawa Senators (5th, 1571)
• April 9: Lost 2-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (6th, 1566)
• April 11: Won 2-1 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1529)

Next week:

• April 13: vs. Detroit Red Wings (20th, 1491)
• April 15: vs. New York Rangers (30th, 1445)

5. Ottawa Senators ▲1 (1571, ▲18)

Record: 43-27-11, 5th in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100% (▲30)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲4)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 7: Won 6-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1576)
• April 9: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (25th, 1462)
• April 11: Won 3-0 @ New York Islanders (23rd, 1468)
• April 12: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)

Next week:

• April 15: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (28th, 1456)

Overall Ratings

 1       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1595 (▲18)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            1592 (▲8)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1577 (▲11)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1576 (▼13)
 5       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1571 (▲18)
 6       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1566
 7       Dallas Stars                  1554 (▲10)
 8       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1540 (▲24)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1531 (▼9)
10       Boston Bruins                 1529 (▲3)
11       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1526 (▼9)
12       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1512 (▲2)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1509 (▲7)
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1505 (▼8)
14 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼2)             1505 (▼10)
16       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1504 (▼2)
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1502 (▲5)
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1501 (▲11)
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1501 (▲10)
20       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1491 (▼3)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1486 (▲11)
22       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1477 (▼5)
23       New York Islanders (▲1)       1468 (▼6)
24       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1464 (▼1)
25       Florida Panthers (▲4)         1462 (▲7)
26       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1459 (▼12)
27       Anaheim Ducks                 1457 (▼4)
28       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6)      1456 (▼23)
29       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1449 (▼3)
30       New York Rangers (▼2)         1445 (▼11)
31       Chicago Blackhawks            1415 (▼19)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1358 (▼3)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✓
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           72% (▲60)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      22% (▼53)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       5% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     61% (▲40)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          31% (▼17)
 3       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            7% (▼22)
 4       Los Angeles Kings             1%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          — (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✓
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✓
 3       Philadelphia Flyers           77% (▲21)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲2)      16% (▲10)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         7% (▼16)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       — (▼27)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         —
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            ✓ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                ✓
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✓
 1 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4)          ✓ (▲30)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✓
 6       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼19)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  ✓
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✓
 4       Utah Mammoth                  >99% (▲2)
 5       Nashville Predators           31% (▼5)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 1% (▼4)
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       —
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          — (▼5)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     ✓ (▲5)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          >99% (▲2)
 3       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            92% (▼3)
 4       Los Angeles Kings             76% (▲40)
 5       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼29)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           —
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken                — (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✓ (▲1)

Colorado has clinched the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            18% (▲2)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           13% (▲3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲1)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      9% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4)          8% (▲4)
 7       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       7% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      4% (▼2)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            3%
11 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼2)             3% (▼1)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     3%
14       Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5)    <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5)          <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           —
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼3)       —
23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         —
23 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       —
23 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         —
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼3)        —
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           —
23 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          —
23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      —
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        —

 

​What a week of hockey! As the calendar flips and the pressure reaches a boiling point, the cream is starting to rise to the top while the desperate are fighting for their lives. We’ve seen a new leader take the throne and a few perennial powerhouses officially punch their tickets to the big dance. Let’s dive into the numbers and see where everyone stands in this week’s NHL Power Rankings.

​The Top 5

1. ​Tampa Bay (1, +2, 1589): The Bolts are back on top! With a massive week that included wins over Pittsburgh and Boston, Tampa has leapfrogged the competition to claim the #1 spot.
2. ​Colorado (2, -1, 1584): A slightly rocky week for the Avs, including a surprising loss to Vancouver and a late-week stumble against St. Louis, sees them slip just one spot.
3. ​Buffalo (3, -1, 1577): The Sabres remain a force to be reckoned with, though a loss to Ottawa kept them from holding onto that #2 rung.
4. ​Carolina (4, +2, 1566): The Canes are surging at exactly the right time, looking every bit like a Cup contender as they solidify their dominance in the Metro.
5. ​Montreal (4, 1566): Tied with Carolina in rating, the Canadiens have been remarkably consistent, holding steady in the top five without moving an inch in the rankings this week.

​Biggest Risers

• ​New Jersey (21, +5, 1482): The Devils are playing spoiler and then some, jumping five spots after a statement 7-3 win over Washington and a shutout against Montreal.
• ​St. Louis (13, +4, 1513): The Blues are making a late-season statement, picking up four spots and proving they can still hang with the heavyweights like Colorado.
• ​Vegas (16, +4, 1502): A perfect week for the Golden Knights has them trending upward, highlighted by a dominant win over Edmonton.

​Biggest Fallers

• ​Anaheim (27, -6, 1461): It was a week to forget for the Ducks, who suffered a freefall in the rankings after losing ground in every outing.
• ​Columbus (15, -5, 1506): The Blue Jackets hit a wall this week, dropping five spots as their playoff cushion begins to evaporate.
• ​Detroit (18, -5, 1494): The Wings are trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time, losing five spots after some tough divisional losses.

​Division Dogfights

​Atlantic:

Tampa Bay has effectively taken control here, seeing their division-win odds skyrocket by 18% to a commanding 75%. Buffalo and Montreal are still mathematically alive for the crown, but the Bolts have the hammer.

​Central:

It’s the Colorado show. The Avalanche have a lock on the division with win odds at 99%. Dallas and Minnesota are safely in the playoffs, but the division title is effectively staying in Denver.

​Metropolitan:

Carolina has slammed the door shut. With 99% odds to win the division, the Hurricanes are just waiting for the seeding to be finalized while the rest of the Metro battles for wildcard scraps.

​Pacific:

Total Bedlam! The Pacific saw the biggest shakeup of the week. Edmonton saw their division-win odds jump by 29% to take the lead at 48%, while Anaheim’s chances cratered, dropping 49% down to a 29% chance. Vegas is the dark horse here, jumping 18% to put themselves back in the conversation at 21%.

​Playoff Picture

​The Clinch Club

A huge congratulations are in order for the following teams who have officially clinched their berths in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs:

• ​Carolina
• ​Buffalo
• ​Montreal
• ​Tampa Bay
• ​Colorado
• ​Dallas
• ​Minnesota

​End of the Road

The dream ends here for these squads, as they have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. It’s time to start looking toward the draft:

• ​NY Rangers
• ​Florida
• ​Toronto
• ​Chicago
• ​Vancouver

​Bubble Watch

The intensity is off the charts for the teams sitting between 10% and 90% playoff probability. Here are the biggest swings from the past seven days:

• ​Philadelphia (56%): The Flyers are the week’s big winners on the bubble, seeing a massive 24% increase in their playoff odds.
• ​Ottawa (70%): A strong week has the Sens feeling much more comfortable, with their odds jumping 21%.
• ​Columbus (23%): A disastrous week for the Jackets, who saw their postseason hopes take a 27% hit.
• ​NY Islanders (27%): The Isles are in trouble, dropping 24% in the odds table as they struggle to find late-season points.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1589, ▲3)

Record: 48-22-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 31: Lost 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1566)
• April 2: Won 6-3 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1540)
• April 4: Won 3-1 vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)

Next week:

• April 6: @ Buffalo Sabres (3rd, 1577)
• April 7: @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)
• April 9: @ Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1566)
• April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)

2. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1584, ▼10)

Record: 50-16-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 99%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Won 9-2 vs. Calgary Flames (26th, 1465)
• April 1: Lost 8-6 vs. Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1361)
• April 4: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1544)
• April 5: Lost 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (13th, 1513)

Next week:

• April 7: @ St. Louis Blues (13th, 1513)
• April 9: vs. Calgary Flames (26th, 1465)
• April 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (16th, 1502)

3. Buffalo Sabres ▼1 (1577, ▼11)

Record: 46-23-8, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 31: Won 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (24th, 1474)
• April 2: Lost 4-1 @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)
• April 4: Lost 6-2 @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1516)

Next week:

• April 6: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
• April 8: @ New York Rangers (28th, 1456)
• April 9: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)

4 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1566, ▲12)

Record: 49-22-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 31: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
• April 2: Won 5-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
• April 4: Won 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (24th, 1474)
• April 5: Lost 6-3 @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)

Next week:

• April 7: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)
• April 9: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1434)
• April 11: @ Utah Mammoth (12th, 1515)

4 (tie). Montreal Canadiens (1566, ▲4)

Record: 45-22-10, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 31: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
• April 2: Won 3-2 @ New York Rangers (28th, 1456)
• April 4: Won in SO 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (21st, 1482)
• April 5: Lost 3-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (21st, 1482)

Next week:

• April 7: vs. Florida Panthers (29th, 1455)
• April 9: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
• April 11: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
• April 12: @ New York Islanders (24th, 1474)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1589 (▲3)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1584 (▼10)
 3       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1577 (▼11)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1566 (▲12)
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1566 (▲4)
 6       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1553 (▼3)
 7       Dallas Stars                  1544 (▼9)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1540 (▲18)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1535 (▲21)
10       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1526 (▼7)
11       Washington Capitals           1516 (▼2)
12       Utah Mammoth (▲4)             1515 (▲13)
13       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1513 (▲10)
14       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1510 (▲2)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼6)    1506 (▼23)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▲6)     1502 (▲19)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1497 (▲2)
18       Detroit Red Wings (▼5)        1494 (▼14)
19       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1491 (▼5)
20       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1490 (▲9)
21       New Jersey Devils (▲5)        1482 (▲13)
22       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1479 (▼5)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1475 (▼2)
24       New York Islanders (▼7)       1474 (▼27)
25       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          1471 (▲14)
26       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1465 (▼1)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼7)            1461 (▼25)
28       New York Rangers (▲2)         1456 (▲17)
29       Florida Panthers              1455 (▲7)
30       Seattle Kraken (▼5)           1452 (▼23)
31       Chicago Blackhawks            1434 (▲5)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1361 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99% (▲1)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       — (▼1)
 3 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           75% (▲17)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       13% (▲4)
 3       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           12% (▼21)
 4       Boston Bruins                 <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        —
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          —
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       —
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          —
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1)             —
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          48% (▲30)
 2       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            29% (▼50)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          21% (▲19)
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1% (▲1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▲1)
 6       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           <1%
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           —
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✓
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           >99% (▲28)
 3       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      56% (▲26)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       27% (▼41)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    23% (▼25)
 6       Washington Capitals           6% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils             <1%
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                ✓
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✓
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✓
 4       Boston Bruins                 98% (▲8)
 5       Ottawa Senators               70% (▲22)
 6       Detroit Red Wings             19% (▼18)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  ✓
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✓
 4       Utah Mammoth                  98% (▲4)
 5       Nashville Predators           36% (▲12)
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            5% (▼5)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            —

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            95% (▼5)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     95% (▲22)
 4       Los Angeles Kings             36% (▲3)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          30% (▲3)
 6       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1% (▼30)
 7       Calgary Flames                <1%
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16% (▼3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           10% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      10% (▲2)
 5       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       8% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             7% (▼1)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      6% (▲3)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          4%
 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators               4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼5)            3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5)    1% (▼2)
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9)          1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       <1% (▼2)
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        <1%
20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      <1%
20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            <1%
28 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼5)       —
28 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5)         —
28 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         —
28 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      —
28 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        —

 

The final stretch of the NHL regular season is officially here, and the intensity is palpable. While some teams are cooling their champagne, others are watching their post-season dreams evaporate in the spring heat. From a changing of the guard at the very top to some devastating slides in the wildcard race, this week provided enough drama to fill a highlight reel for a month.

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The Top 5

1. Colorado (1, +1, 1594) The Avalanche reclaimed their throne this week. Despite a late-week stumble against Winnipeg, their underlying numbers and dominant victory over Pittsburgh prove they are the team to beat heading into April.

2. Buffalo (2, -1, 1588) It was a tough week for the Sabres, who surrendered the top spot. Close losses to Boston and Detroit have stalled their momentum, though they remain a Tier-1 threat.

3. Tampa Bay (3, 1586) Consistency is the name of the game for the Bolts. They held their ground at #3 this week, punctuated by a convincing win over Minnesota and a gritty victory against Nashville.

4. Montreal (4, +6, 1562) The Canadiens are the story of the week. With a massive six-spot jump, Montreal is surging at exactly the right time, highlighted by a statement win over the high-flying Hurricanes.

5. Ottawa (5, +1, 1556) The Senators continue to grind their way upward. They showed great resilience this week, picking up crucial wins against the Rangers and Red Wings to crack the top five.

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Biggest Risers

• Montreal (4, +6, 1562): A flawless week catapulted the Habs into the elite tier, seeing their playoff odds jump by 15%.

• Edmonton (13, +4, 1508): The Oilers are heating up, posting a 21% increase in playoff odds after a perfect week against Utah, Vegas, and Anaheim.

Biggest Fallers

• Nashville (23, -7, 1481): A disastrous week for the Predators. Three straight losses have sent them tumbling down the rankings and jeopardized their playoff hopes.

• Florida (29, -4, 1448): The Panthers’ struggles continue as they slide further toward the basement of the league.

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Division Dogfights

Atlantic Division

We have a massive shift here. Tampa Bay saw their division-winning odds skyrocket by 27%, now sitting at 58%. Meanwhile, Buffalo saw their odds plummet by 33% down to 33%. Montreal is the dark horse, currently holding a 9% chance to steal the crown.

Central Division

It is essentially a one-horse race at this point. Colorado holds a commanding 99% chance to take the division. Dallas (1%) is officially just fighting for seeding and survival at the top of the bracket.

Metropolitan Division

Similar to the Central, Carolina has a 99% stranglehold on the top spot. The NY Islanders and Pittsburgh are left fighting for the scraps, with the Islanders holding a slim 1% chance at the division title.

Pacific Division

Anaheim remains the favorite at 79%, but Edmonton is making it interesting, rising to 18% (a 9% increase this week). Vegas took a major hit, dropping 10% down to a meager 2% chance to win the division.

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Playoff Picture

Congratulations are in Order!

The champagne is officially on ice for Colorado and Dallas, both of whom have officially clinched their spots in the dance. Welcome to the post-season!

End of the Road

On the flip side, we must bid a respectful farewell to the NY Rangers and Vancouver. Both teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention this week.

Eastern Conference Breakdown

The East is a tale of two tiers. While no one has officially clinched yet, Tampa Bay (98 points), Buffalo (98 points), and Carolina (98 points) are virtual locks. The real drama is the battle for 3rd in the Atlantic between Montreal (94 points, 9 games left) and Boston (92 points, 8 games left). If the Bruins leapfrog the Habs, we expect Montreal to snag a wildcard.

Behind them, the race for the final Metro spots and wildcards is a total “murky” mess:

• Boston: 90% chance (92 pts, 8 games left)

• Pittsburgh: 72% chance (88 pts, 9 games left)

• NY Islanders: 68% chance (89 pts, 8 games left)

• Columbus: 48% chance (88 pts, 8 games left)

• Ottawa: 48% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)

• Detroit: 37% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)

• Philadelphia: 30% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)

Western Conference Breakdown

The West is much more defined. With Colorado and Dallas in, Minnesota is essentially a lock at 99%. In the Pacific, Anaheim (99%) and Edmonton (97%) are safe bets. Utah (16, -2, 1502) is also looking strong with a 94% chance at a wildcard.

However, the final Pacific/wildcard slots are still a street fight:

• Vegas: 73% chance (80 pts, 8 games left)

• Los Angeles: 33% chance (76 pts, 9 games left)

• Seattle: 31% chance (75 pts, 10 games left)

• San Jose: 27% chance (73 pts, 11 games left)

• Nashville: 24% chance (77 pts, 8 games left)

• St. Louis: 12% chance (73 pts, 10 games left)

• Winnipeg: 10% chance (74 pts, 9 games left)

Bubble Watch

The race for the final seeds is absolute chaos. Here are the teams between 10% and 90% odds who saw the most movement this week:

• Nashville (24%): The biggest losers of the week, seeing their odds crater by -34%.

• Columbus (48%): A rough stretch has seen the Blue Jackets’ chances drop by -22%.

• Detroit (37%): The Wings are sliding at the wrong time, dropping -18% this week.

• Boston (90%): On the positive side, the Bruins surged with a +16% jump, nearly cementing their spot.

• Seattle (31%): The Kraken are refusing to go away, gaining +13% in a high-stakes week.

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Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1594, ▲2)

Record: 48-14-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲2)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 24: Won 6-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
• March 26: Won 3-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
• March 28: Lost 4-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)

Next week:

• March 30: vs. Calgary Flames (27th, 1466)
• April 1: vs. Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1362)
• April 4: @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)
• April 5: vs. St. Louis Blues (15th, 1503)

2. Buffalo Sabres ▼1 (1588, ▼16)

Record: 45-21-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼4)

Last week: 1-1-1

• March 25: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1533)
• March 27: Lost 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1508)
• March 28: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (25th, 1475)

Next week:

• March 31: vs. New York Islanders (17th, 1501)
• April 2: @ Ottawa Senators (5th, 1556)
• April 4: @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1518)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1586, ▲14)

Record: 46-21-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 24: Won 6-3 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1514)
• March 26: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (25th, 1475)
• March 28: Won 4-2 vs. Ottawa Senators (5th, 1556)
• March 29: Won 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1481)

Next week:

• March 31: vs. Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1562)
• April 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
• April 4: vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1533)

4. Montreal Canadiens ▲6 (1562, ▲30)

Record: 42-21-10, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲4)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 24: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)
• March 26: Won 2-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1529)
• March 28: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1481)
• March 29: Won 3-1 @ Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)

Next week:

• March 31: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)
• April 2: @ New York Rangers (30th, 1439)
• April 4: @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1469)
• April 5: vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1469)

5. Ottawa Senators ▲1 (1556, ▲7)

Record: 38-25-10, 6th in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 48% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 3%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 23: Won 2-1 @ New York Rangers (30th, 1439)
• March 24: Won 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1508)
• March 26: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
• March 28: Lost 4-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)

Next week:

• March 31: @ Florida Panthers (29th, 1448)
• April 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (2nd, 1588)
• April 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1514)
• April 5: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1594 (▲2)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1588 (▼16)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1586 (▲14)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▲6)       1562 (▲30)
 5       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1556 (▲7)
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      1554 (▼11)
 7       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1553 (▼11)
 8       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1533
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1529 (▼11)
10       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1522 (▼14)
11       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1518 (▲1)
12       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1514 (▼5)
13 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1508 (▼6)
13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1508 (▲15)
15       St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1503 (▲11)
16       Utah Mammoth (▼2)             1502 (▼9)
17       New York Islanders (▼2)       1501 (▲4)
18       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1496 (▲8)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1495 (▲12)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1486
21       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1484 (▲10)
22       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1483 (▼7)
23       Nashville Predators (▼7)      1481 (▼15)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1477 (▼2)
25       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1475 (▲7)
26       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1469 (▲21)
27       Calgary Flames                1466 (▲5)
28       San Jose Sharks               1457 (▲6)
29       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1448 (▼21)
30       New York Rangers (▲1)         1439 (▲2)
31       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1429 (▼9)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1362 (▼17)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New York Islanders (▲2)       1% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼3)        —

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      58% (▲27)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           33% (▼33)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            9% (▲8)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         —
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲4)
 2       Dallas Stars                  1% (▼4)
 3       Minnesota Wild                <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       —
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          —
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1)             —
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 79% (▲3)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          18% (▲9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     2% (▼10)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           <1%
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           72% (▼10)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       68% (▲8)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    48% (▼23)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           30% (▲10)
 6       Washington Capitals           7% (▲1)
 7       New Jersey Devils             <1%
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                >99%
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       >99% (▲14)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 90% (▲15)
 5       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          48% (▲5)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        37% (▼20)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  ✓
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           >99%
 4       Utah Mammoth                  94% (▼1)
 5       Nashville Predators           24% (▼34)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          12% (▲9)
 7       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            10% (▲5)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 >99% (▲1)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          97% (▲21)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     73% (▼10)
 4       Los Angeles Kings             33% (▼6)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           31% (▲13)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          27% (▲3)
 7       Calgary Flames                <1%
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲7)
 2       Dallas Stars                  1% (▼4)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            19% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                12% (▼4)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      12% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             8% (▼2)
 6       Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       7% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6)          4% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators               3%
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  3%
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     2%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1%
17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4)           1% (▲1)
17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1% (▲1)
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       <1%
23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2)          <1%
23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      <1%
23 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      <1%
23 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            <1%
31 (tie) New York Rangers (▼10)        —
31 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10)       —

 

The Stanley Cup Playoffs are right around the corner, and you can feel the desperation in the air! With only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, the pretenders are being separated from the contenders in real-time. From a historic clinching out West to a massive shift in the Pacific Division, here is your weekly breakdown of the NHL landscape.

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The Top 5

• Buffalo (1, +1, 1604): The Sabres have claimed the throne! With high-octane offense and a point streak that won’t quit, Buffalo is officially the team to beat as they gear up for a deep run.

• Colorado (2, -1, 1592): Don’t let the small slide in rank fool you. The Avalanche are the first team to officially punch their ticket to the dance, and they remain the statistical favorites to lift the Cup.

• Tampa Bay (3, +2, 1572): The Bolts are charging! A stellar week on the road has vaulted them into the top three, proving once again that their championship pedigree is very much alive.

• Carolina (4, 1565): Steady as they come, the Hurricanes continue to suffocate opponents with their relentless forecheck. They are a lock for the postseason and a nightmare matchup for anyone.

• Dallas (5, -2, 1564): A slightly rocky week for the Stars sees them drop a couple of spots, but they remain an elite force with one of the most balanced rosters in the league.

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Biggest Risers

• Nashville (16, +7, 1496): What a week for the Smashville! The Predators are the biggest movers on the board, playing high-stakes hockey and dragging themselves right into the thick of the Western Wild Card race.

• Philadelphia (20, +4, 1488): The Flyers are refusing to go quietly into the night. A gritty performance this week has kept their slim postseason dreams alive and breathing.

• Anaheim (21, +4, 1486): The Ducks are flying high! They’ve put the league on notice with a massive surge that has completely reshaped the outlook of the Pacific Division.

Biggest Fallers

• Seattle (26, -7, 1468): A disastrous week for the Kraken has seen their playoff hopes take a massive hit. They’ll need a miracle and some serious help to navigate back into the picture.

• Vegas (19, -4, 1490): The Golden Knights are stumbling at the worst possible time. After a tough stretch, they are suddenly looking over their shoulders in a division they once controlled.

• Winnipeg (22, -4, 1483): It was a cold week in Winnipeg. The Jets have struggled to find consistency, and their ranking reflects a team that is losing its grip on the postseason race.

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Division Dogfights

• Atlantic: Buffalo has built a solid cushion with a 66% chance to take the division, but Tampa Bay (31%) is still looming in the rearview mirror.

• Central: It’s Colorado’s world; we’re just living in it. With a 95% chance to win the division, the Avs are essentially just waiting for the banner-raising ceremony.

• Metropolitan: Carolina is the heavy favorite here at 98%. The real battle is for the runner-up spot between Pittsburgh and Columbus, who are currently neck-and-neck.

• Pacific: We have a new leader! Anaheim saw a staggering 41% jump in their division-winning odds this week, now sitting at 76% as they leapfrog a struggling Vegas squad.

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Playoff Picture

Eastern Conference

• Ready for the playoffs: A huge round of applause for Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, who, although they haven’t officially clinched a spot, all have a greater than 99% chance of making the dance in our simulations.

• Ready for the fairway: It’s looking grim for Washington (6%), while Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, and the NY Rangers (all less than 1%) might as well start booking tee times.

Western Conference

• Playoff-bound: Congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche for being the first team to officially clinch a playoff berth! They are joined by Dallas (>99% of making it), Minnesota (>99%), Anaheim (97%), and Utah (95%) as the heavy hitters of the West.

• Homeward-bound: Winnipeg (6%) and St. Louis (3%) are on life support, while Calgary, Chicago, and Vancouver, all with less than a 1% chance, have been effectively sidelined.

Bubble Watch

The intensity is off the charts for these teams seeing the biggest swings in their playoff lives:

• Nashville Predators: Up a massive 42% this week (now at 58%). They are the hottest team on the bubble!

• San Jose Sharks: A devastating 27% drop (now at 26%). The clock is ticking in the Bay Area.

• Seattle Kraken: Sliding down 24% (now at 18%). The margin for error has officially vanished.

• Boston Bruins: A solid 13% increase (now at 75%). The Bruins are starting to look like a safe bet again.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Buffalo Sabres ▲1 (1604, ▲17)

Record: 44-20-7, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 17: Won 2-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (19th, 1490)
• March 19: Won 5-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1451)
• March 21: Won 4-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1479)
• March 22: Lost in OT 6-5 @ Anaheim Ducks (21st, 1486)

Next week:

• March 25: vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1533)
• March 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1514)
• March 28: vs. Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)

2. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1592, ▼7)

Record: 46-13-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: Clinched
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 92% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 16: Lost 7-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
• March 18: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Dallas Stars (5th, 1564)
• March 20: Won 4-1 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1438)
• March 22: Won in OT 3-2 @ Washington Capitals (12th, 1517)

Next week:

• March 24: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
• March 26: @ Winnipeg Jets (22nd, 1483)
• March 28: vs. Winnipeg Jets (22nd, 1483)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1572, ▲18)

Record: 43-21-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 17: Won 6-2 @ Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)
• March 19: Won 6-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1379)
• March 21: Won 5-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1493)
• March 22: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Calgary Flames (27th, 1461)

Next week:

• March 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1519)
• March 26: vs. Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)
• March 28: vs. Ottawa Senators (6th, 1549)
• March 29: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1496)

4. Carolina Hurricanes (1565, ▼1)

Record: 45-19-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 17: Lost 5-1 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (7th, 1540)
• March 18: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
• March 20: Won in OT 4-3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (24th, 1474)
• March 22: Won 5-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)

Next week:

• March 24: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1532)
• March 28: vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1448)
• March 29: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1532)

5. Dallas Stars ▼2 (1564, ▼19)

Record: 43-16-11, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼3)

Last week: 1-2-1

• March 16: Lost 6-3 vs. Utah Mammoth (14th, 1511)
• March 18: Won in SO 2-1 @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1592)
• March 21: Lost in OT 2-1 @ Minnesota Wild (11th, 1519)
• March 22: Lost 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (19th, 1490)

Next week:

• March 24: vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1448)
• March 26: @ New York Islanders (15th, 1497)
• March 28: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
• March 29: @ Philadelphia Flyers (20th, 1488)

Overall Ratings

 1       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1604 (▲17)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1592 (▼7)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1572 (▲18)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           1565 (▼1)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1564 (▼19)
 6       Ottawa Senators               1549 (▲4)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1540 (▲9)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1536 (▲1)
 9       Boston Bruins (▲2)            1533 (▲14)
10       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1532 (▼2)
11       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1519 (▼11)
12       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1517 (▲15)
13       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1514 (▲5)
14       Utah Mammoth (▼1)             1511 (▲8)
15       New York Islanders (▲2)       1497 (▲4)
16       Nashville Predators (▲6)      1496 (▲15)
17       Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          1493 (▼10)
18       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1492 (▲6)
19       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1490 (▼12)
20       Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1488 (▲10)
21       Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            1486 (▲10)
22       Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            1483 (▼5)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1479 (▲2)
24       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1474 (▼12)
25       Florida Panthers              1469 (▼7)
26       Seattle Kraken (▼7)           1468 (▼19)
27       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1461 (▲2)
28       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1451 (▼20)
29       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1448 (▲3)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1438 (▲6)
31       New York Rangers (▼2)         1437 (▼21)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1379 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▲6)
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       <1% (▼2)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
 8       New York Rangers (▼3)         —

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres                66% (▲6)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           31% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            95% (▲12)
 2       Dallas Stars                  5% (▼12)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1%
 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       —
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      —
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          —
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 76% (▲40)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          12% (▼18)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               9% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1)           <1% (▼4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           82%
 3       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    71% (▲4)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       60% (▼9)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           20% (▲9)
 6       Washington Capitals           6%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      >99% (▲2)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            86% (▼1)
 4       Boston Bruins                 75% (▲9)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             57% (▼5)
 6       Ottawa Senators               43% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             >99%
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           >99%
 4       Utah Mammoth                  95% (▲15)
 5       Nashville Predators           58% (▲40)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 5% (▼4)
 7       St. Louis Blues               3% (▲1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 99% (▲9)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          83% (▼4)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               76% (▼4)
 4       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        39% (▲4)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          24% (▼30)
 6       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           18% (▼26)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            92% (▲10)
 2       Dallas Stars                  5% (▼11)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           2%
 4       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▼1)
 2       Buffalo Sabres                16% (▲3)
 3       Dallas Stars (▼1)             10% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      9% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    4%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           4%
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            3%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          3%
 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1)             3%
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            2%
13 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        2%
13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5)      2% (▲1)
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     2% (▼1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      1% (▲1)
21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         <1%
21 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼3)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          <1%
21 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      <1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
21 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
21 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

 

What a week of hockey! As we march deeper into March, the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders, but that doesn’t mean the drama is dying down. While the top of the mountain remains steady, the middle of the pack is an absolute whirlwind of movement. We’re seeing traditional powerhouses find their second wind and division races that look like they’re headed for a photo finish.

Here is your NHL Power Rankings update for the week ending March 15, 2026.

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The Elite Five

1. Colorado (1, 1599) The Avalanche remain the gold standard. Despite a slight dip in their rating after a narrow loss to Edmonton, they still boast an 18% chance to hoist the Cup. They are the only team sitting with a rating near the 1600 mark, proving they are the team to beat.

2. Buffalo (2, 1587) Buffalo is locked in. They’ve maintained their spot at number two and bolstered their Atlantic Division title hopes significantly. With a 13% chance at a championship, the Sabres are proving that their early-season success was no fluke.

3. Dallas (3, 1583) The Stars are the hottest team in the top tier right now. A massive 7-2 statement win over Edmonton helped them hold their rank and close the gap on the leaders. Their Cup odds are now tied with Buffalo at 13%.

4. Carolina (4, 1566) The Hurricanes continue to be the model of consistency. They aren’t moving up or down, but with a 10% chance to win it all and nearly guaranteed playoff positioning, they are exactly where they want to be heading into April.

5. Tampa Bay (5, 1554) Tampa holds onto the final spot in the Elite Five. While they took a bit of a ratings hit this week, their playoff probability remains a rock-solid 98%. Never count out a veteran squad with this much championship pedigree.

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Biggest Risers

• Edmonton (13, +4, 1503): The Oilers are surging! A huge week—highlighted by a gutsy win over Colorado—sees them jump four spots. Their playoff odds have climbed to 80%, making them a serious threat in the Pacific.

• Toronto (20, +4, 1486): Don’t look now, but the Maple Leafs are finding some rhythm. A four-spot jump is a nice morale booster, even if their playoff math remains a steep uphill climb.

• Columbus (9, +2, 1531): The Blue Jackets are the “quiet” contenders no more. A massive 16% jump in playoff odds this week puts them at a 67% chance to play past the regular season.

Biggest Fallers

• Minnesota (10, -4, 1530): It was a rough stretch for the Wild. Dropping four spots in the rankings and losing 16 points in their rating, they are struggling to find the net at the most critical time of the year.

• Florida (25, -3, 1476): The Panthers are sliding. A three-spot drop and a playoff probability stuck at a dismal 1% suggests the sun might be setting on their season.

• NY Islanders (17, -2, 1493): A minor slip for the Isles, but in a race this tight, every point matters. They’ll need to stabilize quickly to keep their 69% playoff hopes alive.

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Division Dogfights

Atlantic Division Buffalo has seized control here. Their odds to win the division jumped to 60% this week, leaving Tampa Bay (30%) chasing. Montreal and Boston are still in the mix for seeding, but the Sabres are currently the class of the Atlantic.

Central Division We have a real fight on our hands. Colorado’s stranglehold on the division lead slipped by 11%, while Dallas saw their division-winning odds skyrocket by 12% (now at 17%). The Avalanche are still the favorites at 83%, but the Stars are officially within striking distance.

Metropolitan Division Carolina is essentially coasting at this point with a 92% chance to take the division crown. The real battle is for the remaining spots, where Pittsburgh (4% win odds), the Islanders (2%), and a surging Columbus (2%) are fighting for every inch of ice.

Pacific Division This is easily the most volatile race in the league. Anaheim leads the pack with a 36% chance to win the division, but Vegas (30%) and Edmonton (20%) are right on their heels. With only a 16% gap between the top three, this division title is coming down to the wire.

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Shane’s View of the Playoff Picture

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Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1599, ▼14)

Record: 44-12-9, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▼10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 10: Lost 4-3 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
• March 12: Won 5-1 @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1487)
• March 14: Lost 3-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1488)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
• March 18: vs. Dallas Stars (3rd, 1583)
• March 20: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1432)
• March 22: @ Washington Capitals (15th, 1502)

2. Buffalo Sabres (1587, ▼9)

Record: 41-20-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 10: Won 6-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1471)
• March 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (15th, 1502)
• March 14: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)

Next week:

• March 17: @ Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)
• March 19: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1471)
• March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1477)
• March 22: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1476)

3. Dallas Stars (1583, ▲7)

Record: 42-14-10, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 10: Won 2-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)
• March 12: Won 7-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
• March 14: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1509)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. Utah Mammoth (13th, 1503)
• March 18: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1599)
• March 21: @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1530)
• March 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1502)

4. Carolina Hurricanes (1566, ▼4)

Record: 42-18-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 10: Won in SO 5-4 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
• March 12: Lost 3-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (20th, 1486)
• March 14: Won 4-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1554)

Next week:

• March 17: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1531)
• March 18: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)
• March 20: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
• March 22: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1535)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (1554, ▼11)

Record: 40-21-4, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 10: Lost 5-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1531)
• March 12: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1509)
• March 14: Lost 4-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (4th, 1566)

Next week:

• March 17: @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1487)
• March 19: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1381)
• March 21: @ Edmonton Oilers (13th, 1503)
• March 22: @ Calgary Flames (28th, 1459)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1599 (▼14)
 2       Buffalo Sabres                1587 (▼9)
 3       Dallas Stars                  1583 (▲7)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           1566 (▼4)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           1554 (▼11)
 6       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1545 (▲7)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1535 (▲2)
 8       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1534 (▼7)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1531 (▲7)
10       Minnesota Wild (▼4)           1530 (▼16)
11       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1519 (▼11)
12       Detroit Red Wings             1509 (▼11)
13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1503 (▲13)
13 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1)             1503 (▼17)
15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1502 (▲8)
15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      1502 (▲9)
17       New York Islanders (▼3)       1493 (▼2)
18       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1488 (▼2)
19       Seattle Kraken                1487 (▼1)
20 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1486 (▲1)
20 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1486 (▲15)
22       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1481 (▲2)
23       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1478 (▼1)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1477 (▲5)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1476 (▲7)
25 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         1476 (▲1)
27       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1471 (▲11)
28       Calgary Flames (▼2)           1459 (▼11)
29       New York Rangers (▲2)         1458 (▲36)
30       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1445
31       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1432 (▼2)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1381 (▼11)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           92% (▲2)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2% (▲1)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres                60% (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           30% (▼7)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            6% (▼1)
 4       Boston Bruins (▲1)            2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         <1%
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            83% (▼11)
 2       Dallas Stars                  17% (▲12)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1%
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 36% (▼1)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          30% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               20% (▲4)
 4       San Jose Sharks               8% (▼1)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           4% (▼5)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             2%
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           82% (▼1)
 3       New York Islanders            69% (▲1)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets         67% (▲13)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           11% (▼2)
 6       Washington Capitals           6% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres                >99%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           98% (▼1)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            87% (▼2)
 4       Boston Bruins (▲1)            66%
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        62% (▼17)
 6       Ottawa Senators               50% (▲10)
 7       Florida Panthers              1%
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                >99%
 4       Utah Mammoth                  80% (▼13)
 5       Nashville Predators           18% (▼5)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 9% (▼7)
 7       St. Louis Blues               2% (▼1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks                 90% (▲4)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          87% (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               80% (▲11)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          54% (▲6)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           44% (▼8)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             35% (▲7)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▼10)
 2       Dallas Stars                  16% (▲11)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           2% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            18% (▼2)
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                13%
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             13% (▲3)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      10%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           7% (▼1)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 3%
10 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          3% (▲1)
10 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          3% (▲1)
10 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼3)             3% (▼1)
10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     3% (▲1)
15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5)        2% (▼1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5)           1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
22 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         <1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          <1%
22 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      <1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
22 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
22 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            <1% (▼1)

 

What a week of hockey! As we wrap up the first full week of March, the playoff picture is sharpening, and a few teams are making loud statements at just the right time. We’ve seen high-scoring thrillers, major divisional shifts, and a new heavyweight contender officially crashing the top two.

The Top 5 Heavyweights

1. Colorado (1, 1613)

The Avalanche remain the gold standard. They padded their rating this week with a gutsy 3–2 shootout win over Minnesota, essentially locking up their postseason plans with playoff odds at >99%.

2. Buffalo (2, +2, 1596)

The hottest team in the league. Buffalo went a perfect 4–0 this week, capped off by an unbelievable 8–7 victory over Tampa Bay. They’ve seen a massive surge in their divisional win odds, now sitting at 51%, and look like a true threat with a 13% chance to hoist the Cup.

3. Dallas (3, 1576)

The Stars are the model of consistency. They took care of business against Chicago and Vancouver, maintaining their rank and keeping their playoff odds at >99%.

4. Carolina (4, +1, 1570)

The Hurricanes continue to blow through the Metropolitan. Even with a late-week stumble against Calgary, their overall body of work has pushed their division-winning probability to a commanding 90%.

5. Tampa Bay (5, -3, 1565)

It was a week to forget for the Bolts. Dropping three out of four games—including that high-octane loss to Buffalo—has seen them slide out of the top two. While they are still a safe bet for the playoffs at 99%, they’ve lost their grip on the Atlantic lead.

Biggest Risers

• St. Louis (20, +7, 1485): The Blues are singing a happy tune after a flawless 3–0 week. By taking down Seattle, San Jose, and Anaheim, they’ve climbed seven spots. While their playoff hopes remain slim at 3%, this momentum is a pride-builder for the franchise.

• Utah (12, +5, 1520): Utah is officially on a tear. A perfect week, including a shutout against Philadelphia, has catapulted them five spots up the rankings. More importantly, their playoff odds jumped by 19% this week, now sitting at a very comfortable 93%.

Biggest Fallers

• Toronto (25, -5, 1471): A difficult stretch for the Buds. They failed to find the win column this week, dropping games to New Jersey, the Rangers, and Tampa Bay. Their playoff chances have effectively evaporated, now sitting at less than 1%.

• Vegas (15, -3, 1494): The Golden Knights are stumbling at the wrong time. Losses to Buffalo and Edmonton have caused a 10% drop in their playoff security, though they still hold an 81% chance to make the dance.

Division Dogfights

• Atlantic: We have a new leader! Buffalo’s spectacular week saw their division win odds skyrocket from 15% to 51%, leapfrogging Tampa Bay, who saw their odds crater by 32%.

• Metropolitan: Carolina has turned this into a one-horse race. Their division win odds hit 90% this week, while Pittsburgh’s slide has them sitting at just a 7% chance to reclaim the top spot.

• Central: This remains the Colorado show. With a 94% chance to win the division, the Avalanche are just waiting for the regular season to end. Dallas is the only other team with a mathematical pulse at 5%.

• Pacific: This is the wildest race in the league. Anaheim holds the edge at 37%, but Vegas (27%), Edmonton (16%), and Seattle (9%) are all within striking distance. San Jose also remains a dark horse here with a 9% chance to steal the crown.

Streaks and Postseason Impact

The story of the week is undoubtedly Buffalo’s four-game win streak. By sweeping their schedule, they didn’t just move up the rankings; they completely reshaped the Atlantic Division. Their Cup odds nearly doubled, rising from 8% to 13%.

Meanwhile, Utah’s three-game win streak has almost entirely punched their ticket to the postseason. Starting the week with a 74% chance, their perfect run has pushed them to 93%, making them one of the most dangerous “risers” heading into late March. Conversely, Seattle’s recent struggles have been costly; their playoff odds plummeted by 23% this week, leaving them in a precarious 52% “coin-flip” scenario for the final weeks.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1613, ▲10)

Record: 43-10-9, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 92% (▲16)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 20% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 2: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1472)
• March 3: Won 5-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1469)
• March 6: Won in SO 5-4 @ Dallas Stars (3rd, 1576)
• March 8: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (6th, 1546)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
• March 12: @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1488)
• March 14: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1490)

2. Buffalo Sabres ▲2 (1596, ▲24)

Record: 39-19-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 3: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1494)
• March 5: Won 5-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1533)
• March 7: Won 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (21st, 1479)
• March 8: Won 8-7 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1565)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1460)
• March 12: vs. Washington Capitals (16th, 1493)
• March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (25th, 1471)

3. Dallas Stars ▲2 (1576, ▲7)

Record: 39-14-10, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 2: Won 6-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1392)
• March 3: Won 6-1 @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1470)
• March 6: Lost in SO 5-4 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1613)
• March 8: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1434)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1494)
• March 12: vs. Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
• March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1520)

4. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1570, ▼6)

Record: 40-17-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 2: Lost 2-1 @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1488)
• March 4: Won 6-4 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1392)
• March 6: Won 6-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
• March 7: Lost 5-4 @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1470)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1533)
• March 12: vs. St. Louis Blues (20th, 1485)
• March 14: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1565)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1565, ▼17)

Record: 39-19-4, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 1-3-0

• March 3: Lost 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1546)
• March 5: Lost 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1490)
• March 7: Won 5-2 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (25th, 1471)
• March 8: Lost 8-7 @ Buffalo Sabres (2nd, 1596)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (11th, 1524)
• March 12: vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1520)
• March 14: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (4th, 1570)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1613 (▲10)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1596 (▲24)
 3       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1576 (▲7)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1570 (▼6)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1565 (▼17)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1546 (▲18)
 7       Montreal Canadiens            1541 (▼2)
 8       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1538 (▲15)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1533 (▼18)
10       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1530 (▲6)
11       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1524 (▲10)
12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1520 (▲5)
12 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲4)             1520 (▲17)
14       New York Islanders            1495 (▼14)
15       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1494 (▼21)
16       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1493 (▼14)
17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1490 (▲3)
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1490 (▲4)
19       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1488 (▼9)
20       St. Louis Blues (▲7)          1485 (▲18)
21 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3)      1479 (▼11)
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1479 (▼5)
23       Florida Panthers              1475 (▼4)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1472 (▼6)
25       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      1471 (▼15)
26       Calgary Flames                1470 (▼4)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1469 (▼6)
28       San Jose Sharks               1460 (▲8)
29       New Jersey Devils             1445 (▲7)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1434 (▼4)
31       New York Rangers              1422 (▲3)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1392 (▲4)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲6)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▼5)
 3       New York Islanders            2% (▼2)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets         1% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      <1%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           51% (▲36)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      37% (▼33)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            7% (▼3)
 4       Detroit Red Wings             3%
 5       Boston Bruins                 1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            94% (▲6)
 2       Dallas Stars                  5% (▼6)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          <1%
 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1)             <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            37% (▲7)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     27% (▼15)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          16% (▲8)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          9% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1)           9% (▼3)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           83% (▼8)
 3       New York Islanders            68% (▼11)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets         54% (▲20)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      13%
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼15)
 7       New Jersey Devils             1%
 8       New York Rangers              <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           >99% (▲5)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      99% (▼1)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            89% (▼2)
 4       Detroit Red Wings             79% (▲2)
 5       Boston Bruins                 66% (▲3)
 6       Ottawa Senators               40% (▲13)
 7       Florida Panthers              1% (▼3)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs           <1% (▼3)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                >99%
 4       Utah Mammoth                  93% (▲20)
 5       Nashville Predators           23% (▼18)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 16% (▲9)
 7       St. Louis Blues               3% (▲2)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            86% (▲1)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     81% (▼9)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          69% (▲13)
 4       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           52% (▼11)
 5       San Jose Sharks               48% (▲8)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             28% (▼11)
 7       Calgary Flames                2% (▼2)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            92% (▲16)
 2       Dallas Stars (▲2)             5% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1% (▼7)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            20% (▲2)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           13% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      10% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             10%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      8% (▼3)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      4% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲4)             4% (▲2)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 3%
10 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    3% (▲1)
10 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          2%
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2%
13 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲5)          2% (▲1)
13 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           2%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     2% (▼2)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼7)            1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            1% (▲1)
23 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
23 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
23 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
23 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼5)      <1% (▼1)

 

It has been a bit of a somber week for us north of the border. After the high-octane thrill of seeing NHL stars back on the Olympic stage in Milan, coming home with two silver medals feels like a polite Canadian tragedy. Watching both our men’s and women’s squads push the Americans to overtime in the gold medal games, only to have Jack Hughes and Megan Keller provide the heartbreak, is a tough pill to swallow—especially with Sidney Crosby watching the men’s final from the sidelines due to that late-tournament injury. But with the Olympic torch extinguished, the focus shifts back to the grind of the NHL season, and the data shows that the post-Olympic fatigue is already starting to shake up the standings.

​The Top 5

​1. Colorado (1st, 1603)

The Avalanche remain the undisputed juggernauts of the league. Despite a head-to-head loss to Minnesota this week, their underlying metrics are so strong that they still hold an 18% chance to hoist the Cup. When Nathan MacKinnon is playing at this level, they are nearly impossible to dethrone from the top spot.

​2. Tampa Bay (2nd, 1582)

It was a rocky week for the Bolts, highlighted by a lopsided 6-2 loss to Buffalo. While they still sit comfortably at #2, their grip on the Atlantic Division has loosened, with their division win odds sliding to 70%. Still, with a Cup win probability of 11%, nobody is counting out the veterans in Florida.

​3. Carolina (3rd, +1, 1576)

The Hurricanes are surging. A massive 5-4 win over Tampa Bay helped propel them up the rankings this week. They are the most dominant force in the Metropolitan right now, boasting an 84% chance to finish as division champions.

​4. Buffalo (4th, +1, 1572)

Is it finally happening in Buffalo? The Sabres were the story of the week, taking down both Tampa Bay and Florida. Their playoff odds have skyrocketed to 95%, and for the first time in over a decade, the “City of Good Neighbors” is looking like a legitimate Cup contender with an 8% chance at the title.

​5. Dallas (5th, -2, 1569)

The Stars took a bit of a tumble after a loss to Seattle, but they remain a statistical powerhouse. Even with the slight drop in rank, they still hold a 10% chance to win the Cup, second only to Colorado in the West.

​Biggest Risers

​Nashville (18th, +6, 1490): The Predators are howling again! A massive six-spot jump this week has reignited their playoff hopes, which now sit at 41%.

​Ottawa (10th, +3, 1523): The Sens have cracked the Top 10. Despite a close OT loss to Detroit, they rallied to beat Toronto 5-2, proving they belong in the conversation.

​NY Islanders (14th, +3, 1509): The Isles had a perfect week of grit, securing OT wins against Montreal and Columbus before beating Florida. Their playoff odds jumped a staggering 20 points to 79%.

​Biggest Fallers

​Toronto (20th, -5, 1486): It was a week to forget in the 6ix. After getting dismantled by Florida, Tampa, and Ottawa, the Leafs’ playoff odds have cratered to a dismal 3%.

​Los Angeles (24th, -4, 1478): An 8-1 drubbing at the hands of Edmonton was the low point of a week that saw the Kings slide further away from a guaranteed Pacific spot.

​Columbus (13th, -3, 1514): A tough week of OT losses has seen the Blue Jackets’ playoff security take a major hit, dropping 18 points to 34%.

​Division Dogfights

​Atlantic

​Tampa Bay is still the favorite, but Buffalo’s recent hot streak has made this a legitimate race. The Sabres now have a 15% chance to steal the division crown. Meanwhile, Montreal and Detroit are essentially neck-and-neck for the third spot, both sitting at 91% and 77% playoff odds respectively.

​Central

​Colorado owns this division with an 88% win probability. The real fight is for the runner-up spot between Dallas and Minnesota. The Wild had a mixed week, beating Colorado but losing to St. Louis, keeping them at a 1% division win chance but a near-lock for the playoffs at >99%.

​Metropolitan

​Carolina has essentially checked out from the pack with an 84% chance to win the Metro. The drama here is the Islanders’ late-season push; their three-win week has them looking like a lock for the postseason, leaving Washington (22% playoff odds) and Columbus (34%) to fight for the scraps.

​Pacific

​This is the wildest race in the league! Vegas’s lead is shrinking (now 42% to win the division) as Anaheim makes a monumental charge. The Ducks’ win odds for the Pacific jumped from 13% to 30% this week. With Edmonton (56% playoff odds) and Seattle (63%) struggling for consistency, the Ducks are suddenly the hottest team on the West Coast.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1603, ▼1)

Record: 39-10-9, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 76% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 18%

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 25: Won 4-2 @ Utah Mammoth (16th, 1503)
• February 26: Lost 5-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)
• February 28: Won 3-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1438)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1478)
• March 3: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1475)
• March 6: @ Dallas Stars (5th, 1569)
• March 8: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1582, ▼11)

Record: 38-16-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼3)

Last week: 1-2-0

• February 25: Won 4-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
• February 26: Lost 5-4 @ Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1576)
• February 28: Lost 6-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (4th, 1572)

Next week:

• March 3: @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)
• March 5: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
• March 7: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
• March 8: @ Buffalo Sabres (4th, 1572)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1576, ▲13)

Record: 38-15-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 26: Won 5-4 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)
• February 28: Won 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1515)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Seattle Kraken (17th, 1497)
• March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1388)
• March 6: @ Edmonton Oilers (19th, 1487)
• March 7: @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1474)

4. Buffalo Sabres ▲1 (1572, ▲22)

Record: 35-19-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲12)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 25: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (29th, 1438)
• February 27: Won 3-2 @ Florida Panthers (23rd, 1479)
• February 28: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)

Next week:

• March 3: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1515)
• March 5: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1551)
• March 7: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1490)
• March 8: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)

5. Dallas Stars ▼2 (1569, ▲2)

Record: 36-14-9, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 25: Won 4-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (17th, 1497)
• February 28: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1490)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1388)
• March 3: @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1474)
• March 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1603)
• March 8: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1438)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1603 (▼1)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1582 (▼11)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1576 (▲13)
 4       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1572 (▲22)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1569 (▲2)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           1551 (▲9)
 7       Montreal Canadiens            1543 (▲4)
 8       Minnesota Wild                1528 (▼7)
 9       Boston Bruins                 1524 (▼1)
10       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1523 (▲7)
11 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1515 (▼5)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1515 (▼5)
13       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    1514 (▼8)
14       New York Islanders (▲3)       1509 (▲9)
15       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1507 (▲7)
16       Utah Mammoth (▼2)             1503 (▼8)
17       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1497 (▼7)
18       Nashville Predators (▲6)      1490 (▲9)
19       Edmonton Oilers               1487 (▼7)
20 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      1486 (▼20)
20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1486
22       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1484 (▲2)
23       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1479 (▼6)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▼4)        1478 (▼9)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1475 (▲5)
26       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1474 (▲2)
27       St. Louis Blues               1467 (▲9)
28       San Jose Sharks               1452
29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1438 (▲1)
29 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1438 (▼2)
31       New York Rangers              1419 (▲2)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1388 (▼4)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           84% (▲5)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           12% (▼3)
 3       New York Islanders            4% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    <1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           70% (▼14)
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           15% (▲10)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       10% (▲3)
 4       Detroit Red Wings             3%
 5       Boston Bruins                 2%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            88%
 2       Dallas Stars                  11% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          42% (▼6)
 2       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▲17)
 3       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           12% (▼5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               8% (▼4)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          4% (▲1)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3% (▼4)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99% (▲1)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           91% (▲5)
 3       New York Islanders            79% (▲20)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets         34% (▼18)
 5       Washington Capitals           22% (▼1)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           13% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils             1% (▼1)
 8       New York Rangers              <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 2       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           95% (▲12)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       91% (▲2)
 4       Detroit Red Wings             77% (▼1)
 5       Boston Bruins                 63% (▼3)
 6       Ottawa Senators               27% (▲4)
 7       Florida Panthers (▲1)         4% (▼4)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      3% (▼15)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                >99%
 4       Utah Mammoth                  73% (▼7)
 5       Nashville Predators           41% (▲11)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 7%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▼1)
 2       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            85% (▲19)
 3       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           63% (▼8)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               56% (▼8)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          40% (▲6)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        39% (▼12)
 7       Calgary Flames                4% (▼1)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            76% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      8% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▼9)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼1)             7% (▲2)
 5       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            18%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      11% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▼3)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼1)             10% (▲1)
 5       Buffalo Sabres                8% (▲3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6% (▲1)
 7       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       5%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     4%
10       Boston Bruins                 3%
11 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6)            2% (▲1)
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          2%
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       2%
11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1)             2% (▼1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1%
18 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      1%
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         <1%
23 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6)      <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            <1%