The Montreal Canadiens continue to surprise. In last night’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Montreal, anchored by outstanding goalie Carey Price and a solid defensive game, defeated Vegas 4-1. The Canadiens took a 1-0 lead after the first period, and scored twice more in the second. Switching to a very defensive game in the 3rd period, they gave up one goal to Vegas about 4 minutes in, but despite lots of trying, they weren’t able to beat Price again. Montreal scored an empty netter to put the game out of reach. Montreal now leads the series 3 games to 2, and our models give Montreal a 67.4% chance of advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, although only a 49.0% chance of finishing the series at home next game.
In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay looks to finish their series against the New York Islanders. Tampa Bay leads the series 3 games to 2, and we give them a 48.0% chance of finishing the series tonight in New York, but a 77.6% chance of winning in either six or seven games.
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
- Montreal leads series 3-2
- Montreal now has a 67.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.1%
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
- June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
- June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
- June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning (▼33.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼35.8)
- In 7 games: 32.6% (▲2.4)
- Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning (▲33.3)
- In 7 games: 18.3% (▲1.4)
- In 6 games: 49.0% (▲31.9)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
- Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
- June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
- June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
- June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 32.6%
- Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 49.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 78%, New York Islanders 22%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
- June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.0%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 22.4%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%