McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 9, 2021

Hockey playerIt was a goalies’ night last night in the NHL Playoffs!  In the first game of the night, Tampa Bay defeated home team Carolina 2-0 to win the Central Division final 4 games to 1.  Andrei Vasilevskiy had a 29-shot shutout for Tampa Bay.  The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Boston / New York Islanders series in the next round.

In the second game, Vegas visited Colorado with the West Division final tied 2 games apiece.  Colorado took a 2-0 lead into the third period, but Vegas scored quickly, 1:03 into the period to make it 2-1, and then tied it up at 4:07.  That was it for scoring in regulation time.  In the overtime period, Vegas made quick work of Colorado when Mark Stone scored at 0:50 to wrap up the game.  The real star of the game, though, was Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was sensational in picking up his 88th career playoff win, tying him for fourth on the all-time list with Billy Smith and Ed Belfour.  With the 3-2 series lead, we’re now giving Vegas the edge, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a slight 51.0% edge of winning Game 6 at home.

In tonight’s game, Boston visits the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum to face the New York Islanders.  The Isles lead the series 3 games to 2, and we’re giving them a 54.0% chance of wrapping the series up tonight, and a 72.4% chance of winning the series overall.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

  • Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

  • May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
  • June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
  • June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
  • June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

West Division Final

Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)

  • Vegas leads series 3-2
  • Vegas now has a 69.6% chance of winning the series, up from 37.6%

Series schedule:

  • May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
  • June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
  • June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
  • June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
  • June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • June 10: Colorado at Vegas
  • June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning (32.0)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (32.8)
    • In 7 games: 30.4% (0.8)
  • Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning(32.0)
    • In 7 games: 18.6% (0.4)
    • In 6 games: 51.0% (31.6)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

  • New York Islanders lead series 3-2
  • New York Islanders have a 72.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

  • Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
  • Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

  • Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
  • Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
  • June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
  • June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
  • June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Boston 28%, New York Islanders 72%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
  • New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

  • Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
  • New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

  • Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
  • New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
  • May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
  • June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
  • June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
  • June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
  • June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
  • June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 27.6%
  • New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 18.4%
    • In 6 games: 54.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
  • Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

  • Colorado: 4 regulation wins
  • Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

  • Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
  • Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
  • June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
  • June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
  • June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
  • June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
  • June 10: Colorado at Vegas
  • June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 30.4%
  • Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 18.6%
    • In 6 games: 51.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
  • Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

  • Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
  • Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

  • Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
  • Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

  • June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
  • June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
  • June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
  • June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

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