McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 14, 2021

Hockey playerThe Stanley Cup Semi-Finals have started!  There will be one game a day, alternating between series each day.  Yesterday, the first game of the 2nd-seeded team, Tampa Bay, vs. the 3rd-seeded team, New York Islanders, was played.  In a close-fought contest, the Islanders took the lead 2-0 in the third period, then held off a late charge to win 2-1.  With the goalie pulled, the Isles took a penalty with 1:38 left in the game.  Tampa Bay took advantage of the 6 on 4 situation to pull within one with 53 seconds left, but could manage no more.  With the win, the Islanders are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win this semi-final, with a 64.4% chance of winning.

In tonight’s game, top-seeded Vegas hosts 4th-seeded Montreal in the first game of the other Semi-Final.  Vegas is a clear favourite, with the MNPR group giving them a 72.4% chance of winning the series.  But, you can’t count out Montreal, as they’ve been the underdog in their first two series and won both.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1

  • New York Islanders lead series 1-0
  • New York Islanders now have a 64.4% chance of winning, up from 44.2%

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
  • June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
  • June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
  • June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
  • June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning (20.2)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (9.0)
    • In 5 games: 7.5% (9.0)
    • In 6 games: 11.8% (2.6)
    • In 7 games: 16.2% (0.4)
  • New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning (20.2)
    • In 7 games: 11.9% (0.1)
    • In 6 games: 19.5% (4.3)
    • In 5 games: 17.4% (6.8)
    • In 4 games: 15.6% (9.0)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

June 14th: Montreal at Vegas

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
  • Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Vegas:
    • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 14: Montreal at Vegas
  • June 16: Montreal at Vegas
  • June 18: Vegas at Montreal
  • June 20: Vegas at Montreal
  • June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
  • June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
  • June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 16.1%
    • In 5 games: 23.4%
    • In 6 games: 17.1%
    • In 7 games: 15.7%
  • Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.7%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 5 games: 5.9%
    • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
  • New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • New York Islanders:
    • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
  • June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
  • June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
  • June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
  • June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 7.5%
    • In 6 games: 11.8%
    • In 7 games: 16.2%
  • New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 11.9%
    • In 6 games: 19.5%
    • In 5 games: 17.4%
    • In 4 games: 15.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

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