In last night’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Vegas, down 2 games to 1, surprised everyone by starting backup goalie Robin Lehner instead of star Marc-Andre Fleury in their game against Montreal.  Lehner had not started a game since May 31st, when he allowed 7 goals by Colorado in the first game of their Division Final.  But, Lehner came through big, stymieing Montreal time after time in a game where the Canadiens looked like the better team.  Montreal scored first, with 1:05 left in the second period.  But, Vegas was not to be outdone, as Brayden McNabb finally managed to squeeze a shot under Montreal goalie Carey Price’s arm for the equalizer half way through the 3rd period.  Both goalies played brilliantly, and regulation time ended with the score still knotted at 1.  But, 1:18 into overtime, Nicolas Roy potted the frozen horse turd over a sprawling Price to win the game for Vegas, tying up the series.  The teams now return to Vegas for Game 5.  With the win, Vegas has regained the edge in the series, with the guys in the back room at McDonald NHL Power Ratings calculating that they’ve got a 2-in-3 chance of winning the series.

The other Semi-Final is also tied at 2 games apiece.  Tonight, the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a slight edge, with a 55.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Vegas now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 44.0%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲21.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
  • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.8)
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼21.9)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%