The division finals are done, and we’ve got the matchups and schedule finalized for the Stanley Cup semi-finals!

In yesterday’s game, Vegas beat Colorado 6-3 to win the West Division final 4 games to 2.  The game was tied 3-3 late in the second period, but Vegas scored again to head into the final period 4-3, then took control of the third ahead of star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to win it 6-3, with one of those goals coming on an open net.  Vegas will now face Montreal in the semi-finals.

The semi-finals start on Sunday, when the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay.  We’re giving Tampa Bay the edge in that series, 56% to 44%, so it’s pretty close.  In the other series, we’re making Vegas a favourite over Montreal, 72% to 28%, but Montreal is well-rested and have surprised so far in these playoffs.  The Canadian government has given permission for Vegas to cross the border, so both teams will have home games.

After the Division finals, we’ve now got Vegas as our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 41.7%, followed by Tampa Bay (27.6%), New York Islanders (20.6%), and Montreal (10.1%).  Sadly, that means we’re only giving a Candian team a 10.1% chance of winning the Cup, but that’s up from 8.5% before the Division finals and down from 18.1% before the playoffs began.  Looking back at our preseason predictions, we gave a Canadian team a 21.3% chance of hoisting the prize. 

Yesterday’s Games

West Division Final

Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

• Vegas wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

Next Playoff Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

June 13th: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 0-0

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal at Vegas
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 16.1%
  • In 5 games: 23.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.7%
• Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 5.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.5%
  • In 6 games: 14.4%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 10.6%
  • In 4 games: 6.6%

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%