Game 2 of the New York Islanders / Tampa Bay semi-final went last night, and Tampa Bay was able to even the series up with a 4-2 win in a penalty-filled game.  New York amassed 66 penalty minutes and Tampa Bay 42, although each team only managed one power play goal.  Tampa Bay never trailed in the game.  With the win, the series is tied 1-1 and the teams head to the old barn on Long Island for Game 3 tomorrow night.  Although we’ve got Tampa Bay rated as the stronger team, because the Islanders now have home ice advantage (3 of the remaining 5 games will be in New York), this series is pretty much a toss-up, with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team giving Tampa Bay a slight 50.8% / 49.2% edge!

In tonight’s game, Vegas hosts Montreal, with a 1-0 lead in that series.  Vegas is the top-rated team left in the playoffs, and we’re giving them an 82.9% chance of winning the series, and almost a 1-in-4 chance of sweeping the series (24.1%).  But Montreal has faced long odds before, so they can’t be counted out!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 50.8% chance of winning the series, up from 35.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning (▲15.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 17.3% (▲5.5)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▲3.6)
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning (▼15.2)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 20.2% (▲0.7)
  • In 5 games: 14.2% (▼3.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 1-0
• Vegas has an 82.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Vegas leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 24.1%
  • In 5 games: 28.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 6.9%
  • In 5 games: 2.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%