Today’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report is brought to you by the number 1: one game last night, one series finished, one team moves on, one team goes home, and there’s one series left to be decided in the Division finals!

Boston travelled to New York to face the Islanders, down 3-2 in the series.  After the first period, the game was tied 1-1, but New York scored three times in the second period to take a 4-1 lead.  The Isles tough defense shut down Boston in the final frame, holding them to only 5 shots in the third period, although they did score once to make it 4-2.  But, the Islanders scored two empty net goals late in the game to finish off the Bruins 6-2.  New York will face Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup semi-finals, the same matchup as last year when the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Lightning defeated the Islanders in 6 games.

There’s only one Division final left to be decided, as Colorado travels to Vegas tonight for Game 6 of the West Division final.  Vegas leads the series 3-2, and would prefer to close the series out at home.  We’re giving Vegas the edge in the series, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a 51.0% chance of finishing it off with a victory tonight.  The winner of this series will face Montreal in the semi-finals.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

• New York Islanders win series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

Today’s Game

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 3-2
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 30.4%
• Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.6%
  • In 6 games: 51.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%