The unlikely Montreal Canadiens continue their amazing playoff run, backstopped by an incredible Carey Price.  In Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Montreal came back to upset Vegas 3-2 in overtime!  Vegas dominated the game through the first two periods, outshooting Montreal 16-3 in the first period and 14-5 in the second, but the game was tied 1-1 after two.  Vegas scored early in the third period, and it stayed that way until two minutes left in the game when Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury mishandled the puck behind his own net, and Montreal capitalized on the miscue to equalize the score.  The game headed to overtime, where Josh Anderson scored his second goal of the night to win it for Montreal.  Montreal unbelievably is now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite in this series, with a slightly-better-than-even edge at 56.0% to win the series.

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay plays the second game in New York against the Islanders.  After splitting the series at home and winning the next game on the road, Tampa Bay leads the series 2-1.  We’re giving the edge to Tampa Bay, with a 72.9% chance of winning the series. 

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal now has a 56.0% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
  • In 7 games: 25.4% (▲3.9)
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 14.0% (▲1.9)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲8.5)
  • In 5 games: 18.8% (▲10.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%