Defenseman Ryan Pulock made the play of the game for the New York Islanders, as they held on to beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in Game 4 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  After a scoreless first period, the Islanders scored 3 times in the second to go up 3-0.  Brayden Point cut the lead to 2 when he scored for the 7th straight game early in the third, and three minutes later, Tampa Bay scored again to make it 3-2.  In the dying seconds of the game, Tampa Bay’s Ryan McDonagh made a brilliant spin-a-rama move to draw New York goalie Semyon Varlamov out of the net, but Ryan Pulock came in front and made a huge save to preserve the win for New York as time ran out.  What a finish!

The series is now tied 2-2 as the teams head back to Tampa Bay.  With 2 of the next 3 games in Tampa Bay, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team gives Tampa Bay a slight 55.6% edge to win the series.

In today’s game, top-ranked Vegas visits bottom-ranked Montreal for Game 4 of their series.  Unlikely Montreal leads the series 2 games to 1, and we’re giving Montreal a 56.0% chance of winning the series.  Go Habs!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 55.6% chance of winning the series, down from 72.9%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning (▼17.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼29.8)
  • In 6 games: 27.8% (▲4.6)
  • In 7 games: 27.8% (▲7.9)
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning (▲17.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 23.5% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%