It was a goalies’ night last night in the NHL Playoffs! In the first game of the night, Tampa Bay defeated home team Carolina 2-0 to win the Central Division final 4 games to 1. Andrei Vasilevskiy had a 29-shot shutout for Tampa Bay. The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Boston / New York Islanders series in the next round.
In the second game, Vegas visited Colorado with the West Division final tied 2 games apiece. Colorado took a 2-0 lead into the third period, but Vegas scored quickly, 1:03 into the period to make it 2-1, and then tied it up at 4:07. That was it for scoring in regulation time. In the overtime period, Vegas made quick work of Colorado when Mark Stone scored at 0:50 to wrap up the game. The real star of the game, though, was Vegas goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, who was sensational in picking up his 88th career playoff win, tying him for fourth on the all-time list with Billy Smith and Ed Belfour. With the 3-2 series lead, we’re now giving Vegas the edge, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a slight 51.0% edge of winning Game 6 at home.
In tonight’s game, Boston visits the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum to face the New York Islanders. The Isles lead the series 3 games to 2, and we’re giving them a 54.0% chance of wrapping the series up tonight, and a 72.4% chance of winning the series overall.
Yesterday’s Games
Central Division Final
Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0
- Tampa Bay wins series 4-1
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
- June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0
West Division Final
Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
- Vegas leads series 3-2
- Vegas now has a 69.6% chance of winning the series, up from 37.6%
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
- June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
- June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning (▼32.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼32.8)
- In 7 games: 30.4% (▲0.8)
- Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning(▲32.0)
- In 7 games: 18.6% (▲0.4)
- In 6 games: 51.0% (▲31.6)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
East Division Final
Boston at New York Islanders
- New York Islanders lead series 3-2
- New York Islanders have a 72.4% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups – Division Finals
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
- June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0
East Division
Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders lead series 3-2
Chances of winning: Boston 28%, New York Islanders 72%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last round:
- Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
- New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
- June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
- June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
- June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 27.6%
- New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.4%
- In 6 games: 54.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)
Vegas leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
- Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 4 regulation wins
- Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
- Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
- June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
- June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 30.4%
- Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.6%
- In 6 games: 51.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
- Montreal: 1489, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
- Montreal: 3 regulation wins
Last round:
- Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
- Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
Series schedule:
- June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
- June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
- June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the division finals started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 36.0% 2 Boston Bruins 15.0% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 13.0% 4 Vegas Golden Knights 12.5% 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 8.7% 6 New York Islanders 6.3% 7 Winnipeg Jets 6.2% 8 Montreal Canadiens 2.3%