Well, the first series of the 2nd round of the playoffs is done!  In a surprise, Montreal swept Winnipeg 4 games to 0, with a 3-2 overtime win yesterday!  Montreal has now won 7 straight games, and despite being the lowest-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, they are the first team to make it through to the Stanley Cup Semi-Finals.  They will face the winner of the Vegas / Colorado West Division final.  It took overtime last night, but Tyler Toffoli scored 1:39 into the extra frame to win it for Montreal.  Winnipeg only managed 16 shots, while Montreal had 42.

In the first game of the night, the New York Islanders surprised host Boston 5-4.  That gives the Islanders a 3-2 series lead, heading back home to the old barn on Long Island.  Boston outshot New York 44-19, and New York didn’t get a shot in the last 18 minutes of the game, but did have a 5-2 lead at that point, and were able to hang on despite allowing two more Boston goals.  With the 3-2 series lead, we’re now giving the Isles a 72.4% chance of winning the series, and a 54.0% chance of winning the next game at home.

Tonight’s games feature Tampa Bay venturing to Carolina, looking to finish their series on the road, and Vegas in Colorado, with that series all tied up.  Tampa Bay, with a 3-1 series lead, have an 85.9% chance of winning the series, while in the West Division final, we’re giving Colorado a 62.4% edge to win their series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

New York Islanders 5 at Boston Bruins 4

• New York Islanders lead series 3-2
• New York Islanders now have a 72.4% chance of winning the series, up from 40.6%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning (▼31.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼30.6)
  • In 7 games: 27.6% (▼1.1)
• New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning (▲31.8)
  • In 7 games: 18.4% (▼0.7)
  • In 6 games: 54.0% (▲32.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division Final

Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay at Carolina

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay has an 85.9% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Vegas at Colorado

• Series tied 2-2
• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Boston 28%, New York Islanders 72%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 27.6%
• New York Islanders has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.4%
  • In 6 games: 54.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 62%, Vegas 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.8%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.2%
  • In 6 games: 19.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%