Back when I was a kid, I used to watch the show “Howie Meeker’s Hockey School” on CBC on Saturday afternoon.  It was just a show filmed at Howie Meeker’s hockey school (what a surprise!).  There were two things he drummed into those kids’ heads: “Keep two hands on your stick!” and “Never pass the puck in front of your own net!”  45 years later, I can still remember those two things.  Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they forgot the latter, passing the puck in front of their own net, in overtime yet, turning it over, and losing the game 3-2 to the New York Islanders.

Tampa Bay took the lead in the first on Brayden Point’s goal.  He has now scored in nine consecutive games in the playoffs, one shy of the all-time record held by Reggie Leach of the hated 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, the Broad Street Bullies.  Tampa Bay extended the lead to 2-0, but the Islanders clawed back, making it 2-1 at the end of the second, and tying it up with 8:44 left in the third.  That was all the scoring in regulation time.  In overtime, Tampa Bay made their big mistake and Anthony Beauvillier took advantage only 1:08 into overtime to win it for New York.  The series is now tied 3-3, and the teams head back to Tampa Bay for the decisive Game 7.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a 57.0% chance of winning the game and advancing to the Stanley Cup final.

In tonight’s game, Montreal has a chance to finish off their series, as they host Vegas leading 3 games to 2.  We’re giving Montreal a 67.4% chance of winning the series, but only a 49.0% chance of winning it tonight.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)

• Series tied 3-3
• Tampa Bay now has a 57.0% chance of winning the series, down from 77.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.0)
  • In 7 games: 57.0% (▲27.4)
• New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 43.0% (▲20.6)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Montreal leads series 3-2
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 32.6%
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 57.0%
• New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 43.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%