Tampa Bay took the lead in the first on Brayden Point’s goal. He has now scored in nine consecutive games in the playoffs, one shy of the all-time record held by Reggie Leach of the hated 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, the Broad Street Bullies. Tampa Bay extended the lead to 2-0, but the Islanders clawed back, making it 2-1 at the end of the second, and tying it up with 8:44 left in the third. That was all the scoring in regulation time. In overtime, Tampa Bay made their big mistake and Anthony Beauvillier took advantage only 1:08 into overtime to win it for New York. The series is now tied 3-3, and the teams head back to Tampa Bay for the decisive Game 7. We’re giving Tampa Bay a 57.0% chance of winning the game and advancing to the Stanley Cup final.
In tonight’s game, Montreal has a chance to finish off their series, as they host Vegas leading 3 games to 2. We’re giving Montreal a 67.4% chance of winning the series, but only a 49.0% chance of winning it tonight.
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
- Series tied 3-3
- Tampa Bay now has a 57.0% chance of winning the series, down from 77.6%
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
- June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
New simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.0)
- In 7 games: 57.0% (▲27.4)
- New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
- In 7 games: 43.0% (▲20.6)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Vegas
- Montreal leads series 3-2
- Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
- June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
- June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
- June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 32.6%
- Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 49.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Series tied 3-3
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
- June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 57.0%
- New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 43.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%