In tonight’s game, Vegas hosts Montreal, with a 1-0 lead in that series. Vegas is the top-rated team left in the playoffs, and we’re giving them an 82.9% chance of winning the series, and almost a 1-in-4 chance of sweeping the series (24.1%). But Montreal has faced long odds before, so they can’t be counted out!
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- Series tied 1-1
- Tampa Bay now has a 50.8% chance of winning the series, up from 35.6%
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning (▲15.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 13.7% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 17.3% (▲5.5)
- In 7 games: 19.8% (▲3.6)
- New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning (▼15.2)
- In 7 games: 14.8% (▲2.9)
- In 6 games: 20.2% (▲0.7)
- In 5 games: 14.2% (▼3.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Vegas
- Vegas leads series 1-0
- Vegas has an 82.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Vegas leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal at Vegas
- June 18: Vegas at Montreal
- June 20: Vegas at Montreal
- June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 24.1%
- In 5 games: 28.4%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
- Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 6.9%
- In 5 games: 2.8%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 13.7%
- In 6 games: 17.3%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
- New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.8%
- In 6 games: 20.2%
- In 5 games: 14.2%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%