Today’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report is brought to you by the number 1: one game last night, one series finished, one team moves on, one team goes home, and there’s one series left to be decided in the Division finals!
Boston travelled to New York to face the Islanders, down 3-2 in the series. After the first period, the game was tied 1-1, but New York scored three times in the second period to take a 4-1 lead. The Isles tough defense shut down Boston in the final frame, holding them to only 5 shots in the third period, although they did score once to make it 4-2. But, the Islanders scored two empty net goals late in the game to finish off the Bruins 6-2. New York will face Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup semi-finals, the same matchup as last year when the eventual Stanley Cup-winning Lightning defeated the Islanders in 6 games.
There’s only one Division final left to be decided, as Colorado travels to Vegas tonight for Game 6 of the West Division final. Vegas leads the series 3-2, and would prefer to close the series out at home. We’re giving Vegas the edge in the series, with a 69.6% chance of winning the series, and a 51.0% chance of finishing it off with a victory tonight. The winner of this series will face Montreal in the semi-finals.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division Final
Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6
- New York Islanders win series 4-2
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
- June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
- June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6
Today’s Game
West Division Final
Colorado at Vegas
- Vegas leads series 3-2
- Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups – Division Finals
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
- June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0
East Division
Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders win series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last round:
- Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
- New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
- June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
- June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)
Vegas leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Colorado 30%, Vegas 70%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
- Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 4 regulation wins
- Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
- Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
- June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
- June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 30.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 30.4%
- Vegas has a 69.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.6%
- In 6 games: 51.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
- Montreal: 1489, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
- Montreal: 3 regulation wins
Last round:
- Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
- Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
Series schedule:
- June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
- June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
- June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the division finals started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 36.0% 2 Boston Bruins 15.0% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 13.0% 4 Vegas Golden Knights 12.5% 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 8.7% 6 New York Islanders 6.3% 7 Winnipeg Jets 6.2% 8 Montreal Canadiens 2.3%