McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 5, 2021

There were two very close games last night, but neither went to overtime. In the first game, Montreal held on to defeat Winnipeg 1-0. Montreal outplayed Winnipeg for the first 50 minutes, but only held a 1-0 lead. Winnipeg started to feel desperate, and really turned it on for the last 10 minutes, but once again, Carey Price was outstanding and was able to fend off the onslaught. Montreal now leads the series 2-0, and head home with an 80.3% chance of winning the series.

In the second game, Vegas, down 2-0 in their series, played at home before a sell-out crowd of 17,504, and used that energy to stage a 3rd period comeback to beat Colorado 3-2. Vegas came out firing, and outshot Colorado 42-20, but were down 2-1 until they tied it up with 5:18 left in the game. Then, 45 seconds later, they scored again to take the lead, and that score held up for the rest of the game. Colorado now leads the series 2-1, and have a 79.2% chance of winning the series.

Two games again today. In the afternoon game, Tampa Bay hosts Carolina with a 2-1 series lead. Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series. In the second game, Boston visits the New York Islanders, leading that series 2-1. We’re giving Boston a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0

Montreal leads series 2-0
Montreal now has an 80.3% chance of winning the series, up from 59.3%

Series schedule:

June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼9.3)
- In 6 games: 6.3% (▼7.4)
- In 7 games: 13.4% (▼4.3)
Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 8.8% (▼3.0)
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 20.6% (▲5.1)
- In 4 games: 32.5% (▲18.9)

West Division Final

Colorado 2 at Vegas 3

Colorado leads series 2-1
Colorado now has a 79.2% chance of winning the series, down from 89.3%

Series schedule:

May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
June 6: Colorado at Vegas
June 8: Vegas at Colorado
June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning (▼10.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.5)
- In 5 games: 34.9% (▲4.0)
- In 6 games: 25.1% (▲9.9)
- In 7 games: 19.2% (▲8.4)
Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning (▲10.1)
- In 7 games: 11.7% (▲5.0)
- In 6 games: 9.1% (▲5.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

Boston leads series 2-1
Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.8%
- In 7 games: 20.3%
Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 25.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 32.6%
- In 6 games: 24.2%
- In 7 games: 19.6%
New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.1%
- In 6 games: 10.6%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 4 regulation wins
Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
June 6: Colorado at Vegas
June 8: Vegas at Colorado
June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 34.9%
- In 6 games: 25.1%
- In 7 games: 19.2%
Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 6.3%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.8%
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 20.6%
- In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 4, 2021

Two games yesterday, both went into overtime, and the visiting team won in both.

In the first game of the day, Boston travelled to Long Island to play the New York Islanders. Boston dominated the game in the third period, but Semyon Varlamov was strong in net for New York, and Boston only led 1-0 until the Islanders scored with just over 5 minutes to go. There was no more scoring, despite Boston taking 21 shots in the 3rd period. But, Brad Marchand scored 3:36 into the overtime period to win it for Boston. Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

In the nightcap, Carolina visited Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series. Desperately needing a win, Carolina took a two goal lead in the 2nd period, but Tampa Bay quickly scored two powerplay goals to even the score at 2. No one was able to score in the 3rd period, and the game went to overtime, where Jordan Staal deflected a Sebastian Aho shot to win the game for Carolina at 5:57 of overtime. Aho scored one goal and assisted on Carolina’s other two goals. Tampa Bay now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving them a 66.9% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s games, Montreal is in Winnipeg for the second game of the North Division Final, and Colorado heads to Vegas for the third game of the West Division Final. Montreal leads their series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 59.3% chance of winning the series. Colorado, undefeated in the playoffs so far, lead their series 2-0, and we’re calculated that they’ve got an 89.3% chance of winning the series, and a 32.9% chance of a second series sweep.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)

Boston leads series 2-1
Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series, up from 23.7%

Series schedule:

May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning (▲20.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 32.6% (▲16.6)
- In 6 games: 24.2% (▲4.9)
- In 7 games: 19.6% (▼1.3)
New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning (▼20.1)
- In 7 games: 13.1% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 10.6% (▼7.6)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼11.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division Final

Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Tampa Bay now has a 66.9% chance of winning the series, down from 82.7%

Series schedule:

May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning (▲15.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.8% (▲7.4)
- In 7 games: 20.3% (▲8.4)
Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning (▼15.8)
- In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
- In 5 games: 25.3% (▲4.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼34.7)

Today’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal at Winnipeg

Montreal leads series 1-0
Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado has an 89.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.8%
- In 7 games: 20.3%
Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 25.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 32.6%
- In 6 games: 24.2%
- In 7 games: 19.6%
New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.1%
- In 6 games: 10.6%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 4 regulation wins
Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
June 4: Colorado at Vegas
June 6: Colorado at Vegas
June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.5%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 7 games: 10.8%
Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 9.3%
- In 6 games: 13.7%
- In 7 games: 17.7%
Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 15.5%
- In 4 games: 13.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 3, 2021

The McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports are back! After a short hiatus, I’m back at my computer and have updated everything. Note that I’ve also included the final reports from the first round series; that’s only because I haven’t released those before, and they’ll be gone in tomorrow’s report.

We’ve also calculated the chances of each team winning the Stanley Cup. The results of our simulations are shown at the very bottom of today’s Playoff Report. They were calculated based on the results of the first-round playoff series. Colorado continues to be the favourite to win it all, at 36.0%. We’ve calculated the chances of a Canadian team winning the Cup to be 8.3% (Winnipeg 6.2%, Montreal 2.3%).

Of course, while I was away, Toronto continued their streak of futility, losing yet another playoff series. After Game 4, when Toronto was leading the series 3-1, we gave them a 95% chance of winning the series. But, as every Strat-O-Matic player knows, sometimes you roll a 20, so nothing is a sure thing. I chalk it up to a failure in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model; we don’t take into account the Curse of Harold Ballard!

But on to last night’s games. Two exciting games last night, but both ended a little unsatisfying. In the first game, Montreal travelled to Winnipeg to open the North Division Final. Montreal was up 4-2 with just a couple of minutes left in the game, so Winnipeg pulled their goalie. It paid off, as Kyle Connor scored for Winnipeg with 1:42 left in the game to narrow the score to 4-3. They had plenty of pressure, so it looked to be an exciting finish, but Montreal got the puck and took a long shot which missed the empty net, but Jake Evans reached the puck first and swept it around to give Montreal a 5-3 lead with 57 seconds left. But, Mark Scheifele, rushing back to try to stop the goal, charged Evans and flattened him after the goal was scored. It was a vicious hit after the goal, and Scheifele was given a boarding major, a game misconduct, and will likely face a suspension. Evans appeared to be unconscious after the hit, and was taken off the ice in a stretcher, but seemed to be moving his hands, so we’re hoping he’ll be alright.

In the late game, the second game of the West Division final was played in Colorado, with Colorado having a 1-0 lead over Vegas. The first game of the series was a blowout, 7-1 for Colorado, but this was a much closer game, with Vegas dominating for much of the game. The game ended regulation time 2-2, and went into overtime. There was a rare overtime penalty call 44 seconds in, as Reilly Smith slashed the stick out of the hands of Mikko Rantanen. Vegas didn’t agree with the call, but whether it was a good penalty or whether Rantanen dropped his stick is hard to say, but the call stood. On the ensuing powerplay, Rantanen scored to give Colorado the 3-2 victory.

There are two games tonight. In the first, Boston travels to the Nassau County Coliseum to face the New York Islanders in the second game of the East Division Final. The series is tied, and we’re giving Boston a 56.2% chance of winning the series. In the second game, Carolina visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series. We’re giving Tampa Bay an 82.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3

Montreal leads series 1-0
Montreal now has a 59.3% chance of winning the series, up from 38.2%

Series schedule:

June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning (▼21.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.2)
- In 5 games: 9.3% (▼9.7)
- In 6 games: 13.7% (▼1.9)
- In 7 games: 17.7% (▲1.6)
Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning (▲21.1)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.9)
- In 6 games: 18.4% (▲5.1)
- In 5 games: 15.5% (▲6.8)
- In 4 games: 13.6% (▲8.3)

West Division Final

Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado now has an 89.3% chance of winning, up from 79.0%

Series schedule:

May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
June 4: Colorado at Vegas
June 6: Colorado at Vegas
June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
- In 5 games: 30.9% (▲4.6)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▼2.0)
- In 7 games: 10.9% (▼3.6)
Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.2)
- In 6 games: 4.0% (▼4.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

Series tied 1-1
Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division Final

Carolina at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Tampa Bay has an 82.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 17%, Tampa Bay 83%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
June 3: Carolina at Tampa Bay
June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 17.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 5.4%
- In 7 games: 11.9%
Tampa Bay has a 82.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.5%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 21.3%
- In 4 games: 34.7%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Boston 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
June 3: Boston at New York Islanders
June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 16.0%
- In 6 games: 19.3%
- In 7 games: 20.9%
New York Islanders has a 43.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.7%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 11.9%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 4 regulation wins
Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
June 4: Colorado at Vegas
June 6: Colorado at Vegas
June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.5%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 7 games: 10.8%
Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 9.3%
- In 6 games: 13.7%
- In 7 games: 17.7%
Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 15.5%
- In 4 games: 13.6%

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
May 31: Montreal 3 at Toronto 1

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%