In a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, Tampa Bay defeated Montreal 5-1 to take a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final.  Tampa Bay took advantage of a Montreal turnover 6:19 into the first period to take the lead, and extended that lead to 2-0 in the second period after another Montreal turnover.  Montreal fought back, though, and narrowed the gap with a goal late in the second period.  But, after the Canadien’s Ben Chiarot tipped the puck into his own net early in the third, the wheels fell off for Montreal.  Tampa Bay put the game out of reach midway through the third to make it 4-1, and finished up the scoring on a late power play goal.

With the win, Tampa Bay, already the favourite, has increased their chances of winning the Stanley Cup.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Tampa Bay a 75.5% chance of winning the Final, up from 61.9%.  That means, in our 1,000,000 simulations, Tampa Bay won roughly ¾ of the time.  But that also means that Montreal won ¼ of the time, so they can’t be counted out yet!  Remember, they won their first round series against Toronto after being down 3 games to 1, when we calculated that Toronto had a 95% chance of winning the series.

Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay now has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 61.9%

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
  • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
  • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲6.3)
  • In 6 games: 16.8% (▲1.2)
  • In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
• Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
  • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.3)

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581
• Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 6 games: 16.8%
  • In 7 games: 15.1%
• Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 4.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%