In a hard-fought game yesterday, Tampa Bay prevailed over the New York Islanders 1-0 to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 3.  Tampa Bay played very tough defense, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped everything that got through to him.  Tampa Bay outshot New York 31-18, although Tampa Bay did block 21 of the Islanders’ shot attempts.  The only goal of the game came on a short-handed goal by Yanni Gourde early in the second period.

Tampa Bay now advances to the Stanley Cup Final, facing underdog Montreal, who beat top-ranked Vegas in 6 games.  With the updated McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’re now giving Tampa Bay a rating of 1581, up 4 from before the last round, and Montreal a rating of 1544, up a huge 24 points due to their upset of Vegas.  Plugging the latest results into our models, we’re giving the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay the edge, with a 61.9% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s mug.  But that means Montreal still has a 38.1% chance of winning it themselves, and they’ve proven in these playoffs that they can’t be counted out!

Our next McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report will come out on Tuesday, after Game 1 of the Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchups – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 62%, Montreal 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581 (▲4)
• Montreal: 1544 (▲24)

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.2%
  • In 5 games: 19.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Montreal has a 38.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 13.2%
  • In 5 games: 8.8%
  • In 4 games: 5.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           61.9%
 2       Montreal Canadiens            38.1%