In yesterday’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Tampa Bay scored early and scored often as they trounced the New York Islanders 8-0. Tampa Bay opened the scoring 45 seconds in, and took a 3-0 lead after the first period. They scored three more goals in the second and twice more in the third, as they handily defeated New York. Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded his 3rd shutout of the playoffs, and Brayden Point scored again for the 8th straight game, tying him for the second-longest goal-scoring streak in a single playoff post-season. With the win, Tampa Bay takes a 3-2 series lead, and we’re now giving the defending Stanley Cup champions a 77.6% chance of advancing to the Finals.
In tonight’s game, Montreal visits Vegas, with that series tied 2-2. With two home games remaining to Montreal’s one, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings gang is giving Vegas a 65.9% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
- Tampa Bay now has a 77.6% chance of winning the series, up from 55.6%
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
- June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning (▲22.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.0% (▲20.2)
- In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.8)
- New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning (▼22.0)
- In 7 games: 22.4% (▲1.5)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼23.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Vegas
- Series tied 2-2
- Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
- June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
- June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
- June 22: Montreal at Vegas
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 35.8%
- In 7 games: 30.2%
- Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 16.9%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 78%, New York Islanders 22%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
- June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.0%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
- New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 22.4%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%