It was a close game last night, but Tampa Bay prevailed 2-1, taking a 2-1 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final. Tampa Bay opened the scoring halfway through the first period, but the New York Islanders tied it with 2:22 left in the second period. Tampa Bay took the lead for good 2 minutes later when Brayden Point scored for the sixth game in a row. That was his 11th goal of the playoffs, best in the league. The road victory was Tampa Bay’s 6th, against 1 road loss. With the win, Tampa Bay has the home advantage, and we’re giving them a 72.9% chance of winning the series now. Game 4 goes Saturday night, still on Long Island.
In tonight’s game, Vegas travels to Canada, the first American team to enter Canada this season. Vegas and Montreal are tied 1-1, and although the next two games are in Montreal, we’re still giving Vegas a 64.6% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
- Tampa Bay now has a 72.9% chance of winning the series, up from 50.8%
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning (▲22.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 29.8% (▲16.1)
- In 6 games: 23.2% (▲5.9)
- In 7 games: 19.9% (▲0.1)
- New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning (▼22.1)
- In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
- In 6 games: 12.2% (▼8.0)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas at Montreal
- Series tied 1-1
- Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
- June 18: Vegas at Montreal
- June 20: Vegas at Montreal
- June 22: Montreal at Vegas
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 20.9%
- In 6 games: 22.2%
- In 7 games: 21.5%
- Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.1%
- In 6 games: 14.7%
- In 5 games: 8.6%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
- June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
- June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 29.8%
- In 6 games: 23.2%
- In 7 games: 19.9%
- New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%