It was a close game last night, but Tampa Bay prevailed 2-1, taking a 2-1 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  Tampa Bay opened the scoring halfway through the first period, but the New York Islanders tied it with 2:22 left in the second period.  Tampa Bay took the lead for good 2 minutes later when Brayden Point scored for the sixth game in a row.  That was his 11th goal of the playoffs, best in the league.  The road victory was Tampa Bay’s 6th, against 1 road loss.  With the win, Tampa Bay has the home advantage, and we’re giving them a 72.9% chance of winning the series now.  Game 4 goes Saturday night, still on Long Island.

In tonight’s game, Vegas travels to Canada, the first American team to enter Canada this season.  Vegas and Montreal are tied 1-1, and although the next two games are in Montreal, we’re still giving Vegas a 64.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 72.9% chance of winning the series, up from 50.8%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning (▲22.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8% (▲16.1)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲5.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲0.1)
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning (▼22.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 12.2% (▼8.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%