Yesterday, we said that Vegas was a clear favourite to win their Semi-Final against Montreal, but that you can’t count Montreal out.  Montreal proved that last night, as they skated to an exciting 3-2 win to even the series at 1 game apiece.  Montreal took a 2-0 lead after the first period, and stretched it to a 3 goal lead late in the second, before defenceman Alex Pietrangelo got Vegas on the board.  Bolstered by yet another sell-out crowd, Vegas had the pressure on, and finally scored again with Pietrangelo again tickling the twine with just over 5 minutes left in the game.  In an exciting last 5 minutes, goalie Carey Price again shone for the Canadiens, as Montreal held on for the hard-fought victory.  The series now heads to Montreal, where the Canadian government has given a COVID-19 quarantine exemption for both teams so that they don’t have to isolate for 14 days.  We’ve still got Vegas as the favourite to win the series, with a 64.6% chance, but that’s less than a 2-in-3 chance!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay travels to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders in the 3rd game of their series.  We’re making that semi-final a toss-up, as the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have a slight 50.6% edge of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal 3 at Vegas 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 64.6% chance of winning the series, down from 82.9%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning (▼18.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼24.1)
  • In 5 games: 20.9% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 22.2% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.5% (▲8.1)
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning (▲18.3)
  • In 7 games: 12.1% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 14.7% (▲7.8)
  • In 5 games: 8.6% (▲5.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%