In the first game of the entire NHL season to be played between a Canadian team and an American team, Vegas came out on top 4-1 to take a 1-0 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final. The game was pretty close in the first period, with Vegas coming out of the period with a 1-0 lead. But, Montreal took 3 penalties in the second period, killing any momentum they had, and were down 3-1 after that period. In the final frame, Vegas scored once more halfway through the period, and despite Montreal pulling their goalie for the last 4 minutes of the game, neither team was able to score, and the game ended 4-1. With the win, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Vegas an 82.9% chance of winning the series.
In tonight’s game, the New York Islanders play Tampa Bay in sunny Florida for the second game of that series. The Islanders lead the series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 64.4% chance of winning the series.
In other McDonald Power Rating news, the CFL announced yesterday that they would start the 2021 schedule on August 5th. The truncated 14-game per team schedule will be released today, culminating with the Grey Cup in Hamilton on December 12th. Look for the McDonald CFL Power Ratings season preview coming out in early August.
Yesterday’s Game
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
June 14th: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- Vegas leads series 1-0
- Vegas now has a 82.9% chance of winning the series, up from 72.4%
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal at Vegas
- June 18: Vegas at Montreal
- June 20: Vegas at Montreal
- June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning (▲10.5)
- In 4 games: 24.1% (▲8.0)
- In 5 games: 28.4% (▲5.0)
- In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.1)
- In 7 games: 13.4% (▼2.3)
- Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning (▼10.5)
- In 7 games: 7.5% (▼1.2)
- In 6 games: 6.9% (▼3.0)
- In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.1)
Today’s Game
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- New York Islanders lead series 1-0
- New York Islanders have a 64.4% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals
Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Vegas leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
- Montreal: 1520, 4th overall
Playoffs so far:
- Vegas:
- First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
- June 16: Montreal at Vegas
- June 18: Vegas at Montreal
- June 20: Vegas at Montreal
- June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 24.1%
- In 5 games: 28.4%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
- Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 6.9%
- In 5 games: 2.8%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- New York Islanders:
- First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
- June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
- June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
- June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 11.8%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
- New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- In 6 games: 19.5%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 4 games: 15.6%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.
1 Vegas Golden Knights 41.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 27.6% 3 New York Islanders 20.6% 4 Montreal Canadiens 10.1%