Home, sweet home!  In both games yesterday, the home team won, both by scores of 5-1!

In the first game of the day, Montreal totally dominated Winnipeg, defeating them 5-1.  Montreal now has a 3-0 series lead, and we’re giving them a 93.3% chance of winning the series.  These two teams play again tonight; this North Division final was the last series to start in this round of the playoffs, and it may be the first to finish, as we’re giving Montreal a 58.1% chance of a sweep.  Bottom-ranked Montreal has won their last 6 games in a row, the same as top-ranked Colorado had done to open the playoffs!

In the other game, Vegas, playing at home in front of a raucous sell-out crowd, beat Colorado 5-1.  Jonathan Marchessault had a hat trick for Vegas, who have tied the series 2-2.  After the second game, when Colorado was leading the series 2-0, we predicted that they had an 89.3% chance of winning the series; we’ve still got them as the favourites, but those odds are now down to 62.4%.  The teams travel back to Colorado for Game 5 tomorrow night.

In the other game tonight, besides Winnipeg at Montreal, the New York Islanders take on Boston at the TD Garden.  The teams split the first two games in Boston.  We’re giving Boston a slight edge in this series, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got a 59.4% chance of winning the East Division final.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5

• Montreal leads series 3-0
• Montreal now has a 93.3% chance of winning the series, up from 80.3%

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 6.7% chance of winning (▼13.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼6.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.7% (▼6.7)
• Montreal has a 93.3% chance of winning (▲13.0)
  • In 7 games: 4.3% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 12.4% (▼6.0)
  • In 5 games: 18.5% (▼2.1)
  • In 4 games: 58.1% (▲25.6)

West Division Final

Colorado 1 at Vegas 5

• Series tied 2-2
• Colorado now has a 62.4% chance of winning the series, down from 79.2%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning (▼16.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼34.9)
  • In 6 games: 32.8% (▲7.7)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲10.4)
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning (▲16.8)
  • In 7 games: 18.2% (▲6.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.4% (▲10.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division Final

New York Islanders at Boston Bruins

• Series tied 2-2
• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division Final

Winnipeg at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 3-0
• Montreal has an 93.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Boston 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.7%
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 62%, Vegas 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 62.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.8%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Vegas has a 37.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.2%
  • In 6 games: 19.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 7%, Montreal 93%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 6.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
• Montreal has a 93.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.4%
  • In 5 games: 18.5%
  • In 4 games: 58.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%