There were two very close games last night, but neither went to overtime.  In the first game, Montreal held on to defeat Winnipeg 1-0.  Montreal outplayed Winnipeg for the first 50 minutes, but only held a 1-0 lead.  Winnipeg started to feel desperate, and really turned it on for the last 10 minutes, but once again, Carey Price was outstanding and was able to fend off the onslaught.  Montreal now leads the series 2-0, and head home with an 80.3% chance of winning the series.

In the second game, Vegas, down 2-0 in their series, played at home before a sell-out crowd of 17,504, and used that energy to stage a 3rd period comeback to beat Colorado 3-2.  Vegas came out firing, and outshot Colorado 42-20, but were down 2-1 until they tied it up with 5:18 left in the game.  Then, 45 seconds later, they scored again to take the lead, and that score held up for the rest of the game.  Colorado now leads the series 2-1, and have a 79.2% chance of winning the series.

Two games again today.  In the afternoon game, Tampa Bay hosts Carolina with a 2-1 series lead.  Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, Boston visits the New York Islanders, leading that series 2-1.  We’re giving Boston a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0

• Montreal leads series 2-0
• Montreal now has an 80.3% chance of winning the series, up from 59.3%

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning (▼21.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼9.3)
  • In 6 games: 6.3% (▼7.4)
  • In 7 games: 13.4% (▼4.3)
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning (▲21.0)
  • In 7 games: 8.8% (▼3.0)
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6% (▲5.1)
  • In 4 games: 32.5% (▲18.9)

West Division Final

Colorado 2 at Vegas 3

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado now has a 79.2% chance of winning the series, down from 89.3%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning (▼10.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.5)
  • In 5 games: 34.9% (▲4.0)
  • In 6 games: 25.1% (▲9.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.2% (▲8.4)
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning (▲10.1)
  • In 7 games: 11.7% (▲5.0)
  • In 6 games: 9.1% (▲5.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.8%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 34.9%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 6.3%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6%
  • In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%