Two games yesterday, both went into overtime, and the visiting team won in both.
In the first game of the day, Boston travelled to Long Island to play the New York Islanders. Boston dominated the game in the third period, but Semyon Varlamov was strong in net for New York, and Boston only led 1-0 until the Islanders scored with just over 5 minutes to go. There was no more scoring, despite Boston taking 21 shots in the 3rd period. But, Brad Marchand scored 3:36 into the overtime period to win it for Boston. Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series.
In the nightcap, Carolina visited Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series. Desperately needing a win, Carolina took a two goal lead in the 2nd period, but Tampa Bay quickly scored two powerplay goals to even the score at 2. No one was able to score in the 3rd period, and the game went to overtime, where Jordan Staal deflected a Sebastian Aho shot to win the game for Carolina at 5:57 of overtime. Aho scored one goal and assisted on Carolina’s other two goals. Tampa Bay now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving them a 66.9% chance of winning the series.
In tonight’s games, Montreal is in Winnipeg for the second game of the North Division Final, and Colorado heads to Vegas for the third game of the West Division Final. Montreal leads their series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 59.3% chance of winning the series. Colorado, undefeated in the playoffs so far, lead their series 2-0, and we’re calculated that they’ve got an 89.3% chance of winning the series, and a 32.9% chance of a second series sweep.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division Final
Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- Boston leads series 2-1
- Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series, up from 23.7%
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
- June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
- June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning (▲20.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 32.6% (▲16.6)
- In 6 games: 24.2% (▲4.9)
- In 7 games: 19.6% (▼1.3)
- New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning (▼20.1)
- In 7 games: 13.1% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 10.6% (▼7.6)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼11.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Central Division Final
Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
- Tampa Bay now has a 66.9% chance of winning the series, down from 82.7%
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
- June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
- June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning (▲15.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.8% (▲7.4)
- In 7 games: 20.3% (▲8.4)
- Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning (▼15.8)
- In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
- In 5 games: 25.3% (▲4.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼34.7)
Today’s Games
North Division Final
Montreal at Winnipeg
- Montreal leads series 1-0
- Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning the series
West Division Final
Colorado at Vegas
- Colorado leads series 2-0
- Colorado has an 89.3% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups – Division Finals
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
- June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
- June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.8%
- In 7 games: 20.3%
- Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 25.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
East Division
Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Boston leads series 2-1
Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last round:
- Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
- New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
- June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
- June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
- June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 32.6%
- In 6 games: 24.2%
- In 7 games: 19.6%
- New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.1%
- In 6 games: 10.6%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)
Colorado leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
- Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 4 regulation wins
- Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
- Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado at Vegas
- June 6: Colorado at Vegas
- June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.5%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
- Montreal: 1489, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
- Montreal: 3 regulation wins
Last round:
- Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
- Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
Series schedule:
- June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
- June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 9.3%
- In 6 games: 13.7%
- In 7 games: 17.7%
- Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 15.5%
- In 4 games: 13.6%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the division finals started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 36.0% 2 Boston Bruins 15.0% 3 Carolina Hurricanes 13.0% 4 Vegas Golden Knights 12.5% 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 8.7% 6 New York Islanders 6.3% 7 Winnipeg Jets 6.2% 8 Montreal Canadiens 2.3%