In a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, Tampa Bay defeated Montreal 5-1 to take a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final.  Tampa Bay took advantage of a Montreal turnover 6:19 into the first period to take the lead, and extended that lead to 2-0 in the second period after another Montreal turnover.  Montreal fought back, though, and narrowed the gap with a goal late in the second period.  But, after the Canadien’s Ben Chiarot tipped the puck into his own net early in the third, the wheels fell off for Montreal.  Tampa Bay put the game out of reach midway through the third to make it 4-1, and finished up the scoring on a late power play goal.

With the win, Tampa Bay, already the favourite, has increased their chances of winning the Stanley Cup.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Tampa Bay a 75.5% chance of winning the Final, up from 61.9%.  That means, in our 1,000,000 simulations, Tampa Bay won roughly ¾ of the time.  But that also means that Montreal won ¼ of the time, so they can’t be counted out yet!  Remember, they won their first round series against Toronto after being down 3 games to 1, when we calculated that Toronto had a 95% chance of winning the series.

Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay now has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 61.9%

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
  • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
  • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲6.3)
  • In 6 games: 16.8% (▲1.2)
  • In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
• Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
  • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.3)

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581
• Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 6 games: 16.8%
  • In 7 games: 15.1%
• Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 4.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

In a hard-fought game yesterday, Tampa Bay prevailed over the New York Islanders 1-0 to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 3.  Tampa Bay played very tough defense, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped everything that got through to him.  Tampa Bay outshot New York 31-18, although Tampa Bay did block 21 of the Islanders’ shot attempts.  The only goal of the game came on a short-handed goal by Yanni Gourde early in the second period.

Tampa Bay now advances to the Stanley Cup Final, facing underdog Montreal, who beat top-ranked Vegas in 6 games.  With the updated McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’re now giving Tampa Bay a rating of 1581, up 4 from before the last round, and Montreal a rating of 1544, up a huge 24 points due to their upset of Vegas.  Plugging the latest results into our models, we’re giving the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay the edge, with a 61.9% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s mug.  But that means Montreal still has a 38.1% chance of winning it themselves, and they’ve proven in these playoffs that they can’t be counted out!

Our next McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report will come out on Tuesday, after Game 1 of the Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 0-0
• Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchups – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 62%, Montreal 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1581 (▲4)
• Montreal: 1544 (▲24)

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
  • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

• Monday, June 28: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
• Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
• Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
• Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.2%
  • In 5 games: 19.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Montreal has a 38.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 13.2%
  • In 5 games: 8.8%
  • In 4 games: 5.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           61.9%
 2       Montreal Canadiens            38.1%

 

For the first time since 2011, a Canadian team is in the Stanley Cup Finals!  Montreal came up big at home yesterday, defeating Vegas 3-2 in overtime to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 2.  The first period ended tied 1-1, but Montreal took the lead 2-1 in the second period.  Early in the third period, Vegas tied it up, and despite taking control of the game, Vegas couldn’t score again as the game headed to overtime tied 2-2.  Then, Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:39 into overtime to win it for Montreal.  All 3 games played in Montreal went to overtime, and Montreal is 5-1 in overtime games in the playoffs, with their only loss coming to Vegas in Game 4 of this series.  Montreal will now play the winner of tonight’s game in the Stanley Cup Finals.

In tonight’s game, the New York Islanders visit Tampa Bay to take on the defending Stanley Cup champions in Game 7 of their series.  We’ve calculated that, being the home team, Tampa Bay has the advantage, with a 57.0% chance of winning the game and the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 3-3
• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 57.0%
• New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 43.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.  We will recalculate once the semi-finals have concluded.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Back when I was a kid, I used to watch the show “Howie Meeker’s Hockey School” on CBC on Saturday afternoon.  It was just a show filmed at Howie Meeker’s hockey school (what a surprise!).  There were two things he drummed into those kids’ heads: “Keep two hands on your stick!” and “Never pass the puck in front of your own net!”  45 years later, I can still remember those two things.  Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they forgot the latter, passing the puck in front of their own net, in overtime yet, turning it over, and losing the game 3-2 to the New York Islanders.

Tampa Bay took the lead in the first on Brayden Point’s goal.  He has now scored in nine consecutive games in the playoffs, one shy of the all-time record held by Reggie Leach of the hated 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, the Broad Street Bullies.  Tampa Bay extended the lead to 2-0, but the Islanders clawed back, making it 2-1 at the end of the second, and tying it up with 8:44 left in the third.  That was all the scoring in regulation time.  In overtime, Tampa Bay made their big mistake and Anthony Beauvillier took advantage only 1:08 into overtime to win it for New York.  The series is now tied 3-3, and the teams head back to Tampa Bay for the decisive Game 7.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a 57.0% chance of winning the game and advancing to the Stanley Cup final.

In tonight’s game, Montreal has a chance to finish off their series, as they host Vegas leading 3 games to 2.  We’re giving Montreal a 67.4% chance of winning the series, but only a 49.0% chance of winning it tonight.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)

• Series tied 3-3
• Tampa Bay now has a 57.0% chance of winning the series, down from 77.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.0)
  • In 7 games: 57.0% (▲27.4)
• New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 43.0% (▲20.6)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Montreal leads series 3-2
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 32.6%
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 57.0%
• New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 43.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The Montreal Canadiens continue to surprise.  In last night’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Montreal, anchored by outstanding goalie Carey Price and a solid defensive game, defeated Vegas 4-1.  The Canadiens took a 1-0 lead after the first period, and scored twice more in the second.  Switching to a very defensive game in the 3rd period, they gave up one goal to Vegas about 4 minutes in, but despite lots of trying, they weren’t able to beat Price again.  Montreal scored an empty netter to put the game out of reach.  Montreal now leads the series 3 games to 2, and our models give Montreal a 67.4% chance of advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals, although only a 49.0% chance of finishing the series at home next game.

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay looks to finish their series against the New York Islanders.  Tampa Bay leads the series 3 games to 2, and we give them a 48.0% chance of finishing the series tonight in New York, but a 77.6% chance of winning in either six or seven games.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal 4 at Vegas 1

• Montreal leads series 3-2
• Montreal now has a 67.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.1%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning (▼33.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼35.8)
  • In 7 games: 32.6% (▲2.4)
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning (▲33.3)
  • In 7 games: 18.3% (▲1.4)
  • In 6 games: 49.0% (▲31.9)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 32.6%
• Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 49.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 78%, New York Islanders 22%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

In yesterday’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Tampa Bay scored early and scored often as they trounced the New York Islanders 8-0.  Tampa Bay opened the scoring 45 seconds in, and took a 3-0 lead after the first period.  They scored three more goals in the second and twice more in the third, as they handily defeated New York.  Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded his 3rd shutout of the playoffs, and Brayden Point scored again for the 8th straight game, tying him for the second-longest goal-scoring streak in a single playoff post-season.  With the win, Tampa Bay takes a 3-2 series lead, and we’re now giving the defending Stanley Cup champions a 77.6% chance of advancing to the Finals.

In tonight’s game, Montreal visits Vegas, with that series tied 2-2.  With two home games remaining to Montreal’s one, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings gang is giving Vegas a 65.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 77.6% chance of winning the series, up from 55.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning (▲22.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.0% (▲20.2)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.8)
• New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning (▼22.0)
  • In 7 games: 22.4% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼23.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Series tied 2-2
• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 78%, New York Islanders 22%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

In last night’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Vegas, down 2 games to 1, surprised everyone by starting backup goalie Robin Lehner instead of star Marc-Andre Fleury in their game against Montreal.  Lehner had not started a game since May 31st, when he allowed 7 goals by Colorado in the first game of their Division Final.  But, Lehner came through big, stymieing Montreal time after time in a game where the Canadiens looked like the better team.  Montreal scored first, with 1:05 left in the second period.  But, Vegas was not to be outdone, as Brayden McNabb finally managed to squeeze a shot under Montreal goalie Carey Price’s arm for the equalizer half way through the 3rd period.  Both goalies played brilliantly, and regulation time ended with the score still knotted at 1.  But, 1:18 into overtime, Nicolas Roy potted the frozen horse turd over a sprawling Price to win the game for Vegas, tying up the series.  The teams now return to Vegas for Game 5.  With the win, Vegas has regained the edge in the series, with the guys in the back room at McDonald NHL Power Ratings calculating that they’ve got a 2-in-3 chance of winning the series.

The other Semi-Final is also tied at 2 games apiece.  Tonight, the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a slight edge, with a 55.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Vegas now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 44.0%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲21.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
  • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.8)
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼21.9)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Defenseman Ryan Pulock made the play of the game for the New York Islanders, as they held on to beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in Game 4 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  After a scoreless first period, the Islanders scored 3 times in the second to go up 3-0.  Brayden Point cut the lead to 2 when he scored for the 7th straight game early in the third, and three minutes later, Tampa Bay scored again to make it 3-2.  In the dying seconds of the game, Tampa Bay’s Ryan McDonagh made a brilliant spin-a-rama move to draw New York goalie Semyon Varlamov out of the net, but Ryan Pulock came in front and made a huge save to preserve the win for New York as time ran out.  What a finish!

The series is now tied 2-2 as the teams head back to Tampa Bay.  With 2 of the next 3 games in Tampa Bay, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team gives Tampa Bay a slight 55.6% edge to win the series.

In today’s game, top-ranked Vegas visits bottom-ranked Montreal for Game 4 of their series.  Unlikely Montreal leads the series 2 games to 1, and we’re giving Montreal a 56.0% chance of winning the series.  Go Habs!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 55.6% chance of winning the series, down from 72.9%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning (▼17.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼29.8)
  • In 6 games: 27.8% (▲4.6)
  • In 7 games: 27.8% (▲7.9)
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning (▲17.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 23.5% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The unlikely Montreal Canadiens continue their amazing playoff run, backstopped by an incredible Carey Price.  In Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Montreal came back to upset Vegas 3-2 in overtime!  Vegas dominated the game through the first two periods, outshooting Montreal 16-3 in the first period and 14-5 in the second, but the game was tied 1-1 after two.  Vegas scored early in the third period, and it stayed that way until two minutes left in the game when Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury mishandled the puck behind his own net, and Montreal capitalized on the miscue to equalize the score.  The game headed to overtime, where Josh Anderson scored his second goal of the night to win it for Montreal.  Montreal unbelievably is now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite in this series, with a slightly-better-than-even edge at 56.0% to win the series.

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay plays the second game in New York against the Islanders.  After splitting the series at home and winning the next game on the road, Tampa Bay leads the series 2-1.  We’re giving the edge to Tampa Bay, with a 72.9% chance of winning the series. 

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal now has a 56.0% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
  • In 7 games: 25.4% (▲3.9)
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 14.0% (▲1.9)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲8.5)
  • In 5 games: 18.8% (▲10.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

It was a close game last night, but Tampa Bay prevailed 2-1, taking a 2-1 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  Tampa Bay opened the scoring halfway through the first period, but the New York Islanders tied it with 2:22 left in the second period.  Tampa Bay took the lead for good 2 minutes later when Brayden Point scored for the sixth game in a row.  That was his 11th goal of the playoffs, best in the league.  The road victory was Tampa Bay’s 6th, against 1 road loss.  With the win, Tampa Bay has the home advantage, and we’re giving them a 72.9% chance of winning the series now.  Game 4 goes Saturday night, still on Long Island.

In tonight’s game, Vegas travels to Canada, the first American team to enter Canada this season.  Vegas and Montreal are tied 1-1, and although the next two games are in Montreal, we’re still giving Vegas a 64.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 72.9% chance of winning the series, up from 50.8%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning (▲22.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8% (▲16.1)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲5.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲0.1)
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning (▼22.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 12.2% (▼8.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%