The final stretch of the NHL regular season is officially here, and the intensity is palpable. While some teams are cooling their champagne, others are watching their post-season dreams evaporate in the spring heat. From a changing of the guard at the very top to some devastating slides in the wildcard race, this week provided enough drama to fill a highlight reel for a month.
The Top 5
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Colorado (1, +1, 1594) The Avalanche reclaimed their throne this week. Despite a late-week stumble against Winnipeg, their underlying numbers and dominant victory over Pittsburgh prove they are the team to beat heading into April.
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Buffalo (2, -1, 1588) It was a tough week for the Sabres, who surrendered the top spot. Close losses to Boston and Detroit have stalled their momentum, though they remain a Tier-1 threat.
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Tampa Bay (3, 1586) Consistency is the name of the game for the Bolts. They held their ground at #3 this week, punctuated by a convincing win over Minnesota and a gritty victory against Nashville.
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Montreal (4, +6, 1562) The Canadiens are the story of the week. With a massive six-spot jump, Montreal is surging at exactly the right time, highlighted by a statement win over the high-flying Hurricanes.
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Ottawa (5, +1, 1556) The Senators continue to grind their way upward. They showed great resilience this week, picking up crucial wins against the Rangers and Red Wings to crack the top five.
Biggest Risers
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Montreal (4, +6, 1562): A flawless week catapulted the Habs into the elite tier, seeing their playoff odds jump by 15%.
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Edmonton (13, +4, 1508): The Oilers are heating up, posting a 21% increase in playoff odds after a perfect week against Utah, Vegas, and Anaheim.
Biggest Fallers
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Nashville (23, -7, 1481): A disastrous week for the Predators. Three straight losses have sent them tumbling down the rankings and jeopardized their playoff hopes.
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Florida (29, -4, 1448): The Panthers’ struggles continue as they slide further toward the basement of the league.
Division Dogfights
Atlantic Division
We have a massive shift here. Tampa Bay saw their division-winning odds skyrocket by 27%, now sitting at 58%. Meanwhile, Buffalo saw their odds plummet by 33% down to 33%. Montreal is the dark horse, currently holding a 9% chance to steal the crown.
Central Division
It is essentially a one-horse race at this point. Colorado holds a commanding 99% chance to take the division. Dallas (1%) is officially just fighting for seeding and survival at the top of the bracket.
Metropolitan Division
Similar to the Central, Carolina has a 99% stranglehold on the top spot. The NY Islanders and Pittsburgh are left fighting for the scraps, with the Islanders holding a slim 1% chance at the division title.
Pacific Division
Anaheim remains the favorite at 79%, but Edmonton is making it interesting, rising to 18% (a 9% increase this week). Vegas took a major hit, dropping 10% down to a meager 2% chance to win the division.
Playoff Picture
Congratulations are in Order!
The champagne is officially on ice for Colorado and Dallas, both of whom have officially clinched their spots in the dance. Welcome to the post-season!
End of the Road
On the flip side, we must bid a respectful farewell to the NY Rangers and Vancouver. Both teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention this week.
Eastern Conference Breakdown
The East is a tale of two tiers. While no one has officially clinched yet, Tampa Bay (98 points), Buffalo (98 points), and Carolina (98 points) are virtual locks. The real drama is the battle for 3rd in the Atlantic between Montreal (94 points, 9 games left) and Boston (92 points, 8 games left). If the Bruins leapfrog the Habs, we expect Montreal to snag a wildcard.
Behind them, the race for the final Metro spots and wildcards is a total “murky” mess:
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Boston: 90% chance (92 pts, 8 games left)
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Pittsburgh: 72% chance (88 pts, 9 games left)
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NY Islanders: 68% chance (89 pts, 8 games left)
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Columbus: 48% chance (88 pts, 8 games left)
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Ottawa: 48% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)
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Detroit: 37% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)
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Philadelphia: 30% chance (86 pts, 9 games left)
Western Conference Breakdown
The West is much more defined. With Colorado and Dallas in, Minnesota is essentially a lock at 99%. In the Pacific, Anaheim (99%) and Edmonton (97%) are safe bets. Utah (16, -2, 1502) is also looking strong with a 94% chance at a wildcard.
However, the final Pacific/wildcard slots are still a street fight:
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Vegas: 73% chance (80 pts, 8 games left)
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Los Angeles: 33% chance (76 pts, 9 games left)
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Seattle: 31% chance (75 pts, 10 games left)
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San Jose: 27% chance (73 pts, 11 games left)
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Nashville: 24% chance (77 pts, 8 games left)
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St. Louis: 12% chance (73 pts, 10 games left)
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Winnipeg: 10% chance (74 pts, 9 games left)
Bubble Watch
The race for the final seeds is absolute chaos. Here are the teams between 10% and 90% odds who saw the most movement this week:
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Nashville (24%): The biggest losers of the week, seeing their odds crater by -34%.
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Columbus (48%): A rough stretch has seen the Blue Jackets’ chances drop by -22%.
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Detroit (37%): The Wings are sliding at the wrong time, dropping -18% this week.
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Boston (90%): On the positive side, the Bruins surged with a +16% jump, nearly cementing their spot.
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Seattle (31%): The Kraken are refusing to go away, gaining +13% in a high-stakes week.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1594, ▲2)
Record: 48-14-10, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲2)
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 24: Won 6-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
- March 26: Won 3-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
- March 28: Lost 4-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
Next week:
- March 30: vs. Calgary Flames (27th, 1466)
- April 1: vs. Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1362)
- April 4: @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)
- April 5: vs. St. Louis Blues (15th, 1503)
2. Buffalo Sabres ▼1 (1588, ▼16)
Record: 45-21-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼4)
Last week: 1-1-1
- March 25: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1533)
- March 27: Lost 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1508)
- March 28: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (25th, 1475)
Next week:
- March 31: vs. New York Islanders (17th, 1501)
- April 2: @ Ottawa Senators (5th, 1556)
- April 4: @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1518)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1586, ▲14)
Record: 46-21-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-1
- March 24: Won 6-3 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1514)
- March 26: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (25th, 1475)
- March 28: Won 4-2 vs. Ottawa Senators (5th, 1556)
- March 29: Won 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1481)
Next week:
- March 31: vs. Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1562)
- April 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
- April 4: vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1533)
4. Montreal Canadiens ▲6 (1562, ▲30)
Record: 42-21-10, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲14)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲4)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 24: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)
- March 26: Won 2-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (9th, 1529)
- March 28: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1481)
- March 29: Won 3-1 @ Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)
Next week:
- March 31: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)
- April 2: @ New York Rangers (30th, 1439)
- April 4: @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1469)
- April 5: vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1469)
5. Ottawa Senators ▲1 (1556, ▲7)
Record: 38-25-10, 6th in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 48% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 3%
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 23: Won 2-1 @ New York Rangers (30th, 1439)
- March 24: Won 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1508)
- March 26: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1522)
- March 28: Lost 4-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)
Next week:
- March 31: @ Florida Panthers (29th, 1448)
- April 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (2nd, 1588)
- April 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1514)
- April 5: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1554)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 1594 (▲2) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1588 (▼16) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 1586 (▲14) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▲6) 1562 (▲30) 5 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1556 (▲7) 6 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 1554 (▼11) 7 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1553 (▼11) 8 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1533 9 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1529 (▼11) 10 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1522 (▼14) 11 Washington Capitals (▲1) 1518 (▲1) 12 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1514 (▼5) 13 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1508 (▼6) 13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 1508 (▲15) 15 St. Louis Blues (▲3) 1503 (▲11) 16 Utah Mammoth (▼2) 1502 (▼9) 17 New York Islanders (▼2) 1501 (▲4) 18 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1496 (▲8) 19 Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 1495 (▲12) 20 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1486 21 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 1484 (▲10) 22 Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1483 (▼7) 23 Nashville Predators (▼7) 1481 (▼15) 24 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1477 (▼2) 25 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1475 (▲7) 26 New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1469 (▲21) 27 Calgary Flames 1466 (▲5) 28 San Jose Sharks 1457 (▲6) 29 Florida Panthers (▼4) 1448 (▼21) 30 New York Rangers (▲1) 1439 (▲2) 31 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1429 (▼9) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1362 (▼17)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% (▲1) 2 New York Islanders (▲2) 1% (▲1) 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) <1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) <1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) — 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼3) —
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 58% (▲27) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 33% (▼33) 3 Montreal Canadiens 9% (▲8) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) — 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) —
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 99% (▲4) 2 Dallas Stars 1% (▼4) 3 Minnesota Wild <1% 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) — 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) — 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) — 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1) — 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) —
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 79% (▲3) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 18% (▲9) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 2% (▼10) 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) <1% 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2) <1% 8 Vancouver Canucks (▼2) —
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 72% (▼10) 3 New York Islanders (▲1) 68% (▲8) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 48% (▼23) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 30% (▲10) 6 Washington Capitals 7% (▲1) 7 New Jersey Devils <1% 8 New York Rangers (▼1) —
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres >99% 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) >99% (▲14) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 4 Boston Bruins 90% (▲15) 5 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 48% (▲5) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 37% (▼20) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1%
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✓ 1 (tie) Dallas Stars ✓ 3 Minnesota Wild (▼2) >99% 4 Utah Mammoth 94% (▼1) 5 Nashville Predators 24% (▼34) 6 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 12% (▲9) 7 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 10% (▲5) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks >99% (▲1) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 97% (▲21) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 73% (▼10) 4 Los Angeles Kings 33% (▼6) 5 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 31% (▲13) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 27% (▲3) 7 Calgary Flames <1% 8 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 99% (▲7) 2 Dallas Stars 1% (▼4)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 19% (▲2) 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 12% (▼4) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 12% (▲3) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 8% (▼1) 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 8% (▼2) 6 Montreal Canadiens (▲3) 7% (▲4) 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) 4% (▲1) 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6) 4% (▲2) 9 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3) 3% (▼1) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 3% (▼1) 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators 3% 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 3% (▼1) 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth 3% 14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 2% 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 2% 17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4) 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1% 17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4) 1% (▲1) 17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 1% (▲1) 23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) <1% 23 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) <1% 31 (tie) New York Rangers (▼10) — 31 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10) —