McDonald NHL Power Ratings: High Stakes and Heavy Hits: The Final Sprint to the Postseason

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​What a week of hockey! As the calendar flips and the pressure reaches a boiling point, the cream is starting to rise to the top while the desperate are fighting for their lives. We’ve seen a new leader take the throne and a few perennial powerhouses officially punch their tickets to the big dance. Let’s dive into the numbers and see where everyone stands in this week’s NHL Power Rankings.

​The Top 5

  1. ​Tampa Bay (1, +2, 1589): The Bolts are back on top! With a massive week that included wins over Pittsburgh and Boston, Tampa has leapfrogged the competition to claim the #1 spot.
  2. ​Colorado (2, -1, 1584): A slightly rocky week for the Avs, including a surprising loss to Vancouver and a late-week stumble against St. Louis, sees them slip just one spot.
  3. ​Buffalo (3, -1, 1577): The Sabres remain a force to be reckoned with, though a loss to Ottawa kept them from holding onto that #2 rung.
  4. ​Carolina (4, +2, 1566): The Canes are surging at exactly the right time, looking every bit like a Cup contender as they solidify their dominance in the Metro.
  5. ​Montreal (4, 1566): Tied with Carolina in rating, the Canadiens have been remarkably consistent, holding steady in the top five without moving an inch in the rankings this week.

​Biggest Risers

  • ​New Jersey (21, +5, 1482): The Devils are playing spoiler and then some, jumping five spots after a statement 7-3 win over Washington and a shutout against Montreal.
  • ​St. Louis (13, +4, 1513): The Blues are making a late-season statement, picking up four spots and proving they can still hang with the heavyweights like Colorado.
  • ​Vegas (16, +4, 1502): A perfect week for the Golden Knights has them trending upward, highlighted by a dominant win over Edmonton.

​Biggest Fallers

  • ​Anaheim (27, -6, 1461): It was a week to forget for the Ducks, who suffered a freefall in the rankings after losing ground in every outing.
  • ​Columbus (15, -5, 1506): The Blue Jackets hit a wall this week, dropping five spots as their playoff cushion begins to evaporate.
  • ​Detroit (18, -5, 1494): The Wings are trending in the wrong direction at the worst possible time, losing five spots after some tough divisional losses.

​Division Dogfights

​Atlantic:

Tampa Bay has effectively taken control here, seeing their division-win odds skyrocket by 18% to a commanding 75%. Buffalo and Montreal are still mathematically alive for the crown, but the Bolts have the hammer.

​Central:

It’s the Colorado show. The Avalanche have a lock on the division with win odds at 99%. Dallas and Minnesota are safely in the playoffs, but the division title is effectively staying in Denver.

​Metropolitan:

Carolina has slammed the door shut. With 99% odds to win the division, the Hurricanes are just waiting for the seeding to be finalized while the rest of the Metro battles for wildcard scraps.

​Pacific:

Total Bedlam! The Pacific saw the biggest shakeup of the week. Edmonton saw their division-win odds jump by 29% to take the lead at 48%, while Anaheim’s chances cratered, dropping 49% down to a 29% chance. Vegas is the dark horse here, jumping 18% to put themselves back in the conversation at 21%.

​Playoff Picture

​The Clinch Club

A huge congratulations are in order for the following teams who have officially clinched their berths in the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs:

  • ​Carolina
  • ​Buffalo
  • ​Montreal
  • ​Tampa Bay
  • ​Colorado
  • ​Dallas
  • ​Minnesota

​End of the Road

The dream ends here for these squads, as they have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. It’s time to start looking toward the draft:

  • ​NY Rangers
  • ​Florida
  • ​Toronto
  • ​Chicago
  • ​Vancouver

​Bubble Watch

The intensity is off the charts for the teams sitting between 10% and 90% playoff probability. Here are the biggest swings from the past seven days:

  • ​Philadelphia (56%): The Flyers are the week’s big winners on the bubble, seeing a massive 24% increase in their playoff odds.
  • ​Ottawa (70%): A strong week has the Sens feeling much more comfortable, with their odds jumping 21%.
  • ​Columbus (23%): A disastrous week for the Jackets, who saw their postseason hopes take a 27% hit.
  • ​NY Islanders (27%): The Isles are in trouble, dropping 24% in the odds table as they struggle to find late-season points.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1589, ▲3)

Record: 48-22-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 100%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 31: Lost 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1566)
  • April 2: Won 6-3 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1540)
  • April 4: Won 3-1 vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)

Next week:

  • April 6: @ Buffalo Sabres (3rd, 1577)
  • April 7: @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)
  • April 9: @ Montreal Canadiens (4th, 1566)
  • April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)

2. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1584, ▼10)

Record: 50-16-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 100%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 99%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

  • March 30: Won 9-2 vs. Calgary Flames (26th, 1465)
  • April 1: Lost 8-6 vs. Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1361)
  • April 4: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1544)
  • April 5: Lost 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (13th, 1513)

Next week:

  • April 7: @ St. Louis Blues (13th, 1513)
  • April 9: vs. Calgary Flames (26th, 1465)
  • April 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (16th, 1502)

3. Buffalo Sabres ▼1 (1577, ▼11)

Record: 46-23-8, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 100%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • March 31: Won 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (24th, 1474)
  • April 2: Lost 4-1 @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)
  • April 4: Lost 6-2 @ Washington Capitals (11th, 1516)

Next week:

  • April 6: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
  • April 8: @ New York Rangers (28th, 1456)
  • April 9: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)

4 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1566, ▲12)

Record: 49-22-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 100%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

  • March 31: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
  • April 2: Won 5-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
  • April 4: Won 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (24th, 1474)
  • April 5: Lost 6-3 @ Ottawa Senators (6th, 1553)

Next week:

  • April 7: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1526)
  • April 9: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1434)
  • April 11: @ Utah Mammoth (12th, 1515)

4 (tie). Montreal Canadiens (1566, ▲4)

Record: 45-22-10, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

  • Making the playoffs: 100%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

  • March 31: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
  • April 2: Won 3-2 @ New York Rangers (28th, 1456)
  • April 4: Won in SO 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (21st, 1482)
  • April 5: Lost 3-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (21st, 1482)

Next week:

  • April 7: vs. Florida Panthers (29th, 1455)
  • April 9: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (1st, 1589)
  • April 11: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (15th, 1506)
  • April 12: @ New York Islanders (24th, 1474)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1589 (▲3)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1584 (▼10)
 3       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1577 (▼11)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1566 (▲12)
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1566 (▲4)
 6       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1553 (▼3)
 7       Dallas Stars                  1544 (▼9)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1540 (▲18)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1535 (▲21)
10       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1526 (▼7)
11       Washington Capitals           1516 (▼2)
12       Utah Mammoth (▲4)             1515 (▲13)
13       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1513 (▲10)
14       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1510 (▲2)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼6)    1506 (▼23)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▲6)     1502 (▲19)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1497 (▲2)
18       Detroit Red Wings (▼5)        1494 (▼14)
19       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1491 (▼5)
20       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1490 (▲9)
21       New Jersey Devils (▲5)        1482 (▲13)
22       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1479 (▼5)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1475 (▼2)
24       New York Islanders (▼7)       1474 (▼27)
25       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          1471 (▲14)
26       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1465 (▼1)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼7)            1461 (▼25)
28       New York Rangers (▲2)         1456 (▲17)
29       Florida Panthers              1455 (▲7)
30       Seattle Kraken (▼5)           1452 (▼23)
31       Chicago Blackhawks            1434 (▲5)
32       Vancouver Canucks             1361 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99% (▲1)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       — (▼1)
 3 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           75% (▲17)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       13% (▲4)
 3       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           12% (▼21)
 4       Boston Bruins                 <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        —
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          —
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      —

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       —
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          —
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1)             —
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            —

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          48% (▲30)
 2       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            29% (▼50)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          21% (▲19)
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1% (▲1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▲1)
 6       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           <1%
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           —
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        —

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✓
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           >99% (▲28)
 3       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      56% (▲26)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       27% (▼41)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    23% (▼25)
 6       Washington Capitals           6% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils             <1%
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         —

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                ✓
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✓
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✓
 4       Boston Bruins                 98% (▲8)
 5       Ottawa Senators               70% (▲22)
 6       Detroit Red Wings             19% (▼18)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           —

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✓
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  ✓
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✓
 4       Utah Mammoth                  98% (▲4)
 5       Nashville Predators           36% (▲12)
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            5% (▼5)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            —

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            95% (▼5)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     95% (▲22)
 4       Los Angeles Kings             36% (▲3)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          30% (▲3)
 6       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1% (▼30)
 7       Calgary Flames                <1%
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16% (▼3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           10% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      10% (▲2)
 5       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       8% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             7% (▼1)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      6% (▲3)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          4%
 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators               4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼5)            3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5)    1% (▼2)
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9)          1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       <1% (▼2)
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        <1%
20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      <1%
20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            <1%
28 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼5)       —
28 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5)         —
28 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         —
28 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      —
28 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        —

 

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