The Stanley Cup Playoffs are right around the corner, and you can feel the desperation in the air! With only a handful of games remaining in the regular season, the pretenders are being separated from the contenders in real-time. From a historic clinching out West to a massive shift in the Pacific Division, here is your weekly breakdown of the NHL landscape.
The Top 5
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Buffalo (1, +1, 1604): The Sabres have claimed the throne! With high-octane offense and a point streak that won’t quit, Buffalo is officially the team to beat as they gear up for a deep run.
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Colorado (2, -1, 1592): Don’t let the small slide in rank fool you. The Avalanche are the first team to officially punch their ticket to the dance, and they remain the statistical favorites to lift the Cup.
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Tampa Bay (3, +2, 1572): The Bolts are charging! A stellar week on the road has vaulted them into the top three, proving once again that their championship pedigree is very much alive.
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Carolina (4, 1565): Steady as they come, the Hurricanes continue to suffocate opponents with their relentless forecheck. They are a lock for the postseason and a nightmare matchup for anyone.
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Dallas (5, -2, 1564): A slightly rocky week for the Stars sees them drop a couple of spots, but they remain an elite force with one of the most balanced rosters in the league.
Biggest Risers
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Nashville (16, +7, 1496): What a week for the Smashville! The Predators are the biggest movers on the board, playing high-stakes hockey and dragging themselves right into the thick of the Western Wild Card race.
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Philadelphia (20, +4, 1488): The Flyers are refusing to go quietly into the night. A gritty performance this week has kept their slim postseason dreams alive and breathing.
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Anaheim (21, +4, 1486): The Ducks are flying high! They’ve put the league on notice with a massive surge that has completely reshaped the outlook of the Pacific Division.
Biggest Fallers
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Seattle (26, -7, 1468): A disastrous week for the Kraken has seen their playoff hopes take a massive hit. They’ll need a miracle and some serious help to navigate back into the picture.
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Vegas (19, -4, 1490): The Golden Knights are stumbling at the worst possible time. After a tough stretch, they are suddenly looking over their shoulders in a division they once controlled.
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Winnipeg (22, -4, 1483): It was a cold week in Winnipeg. The Jets have struggled to find consistency, and their ranking reflects a team that is losing its grip on the postseason race.
Division Dogfights
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Atlantic: Buffalo has built a solid cushion with a 66% chance to take the division, but Tampa Bay (31%) is still looming in the rearview mirror.
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Central: It’s Colorado’s world; we’re just living in it. With a 95% chance to win the division, the Avs are essentially just waiting for the banner-raising ceremony.
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Metropolitan: Carolina is the heavy favorite here at 98%. The real battle is for the runner-up spot between Pittsburgh and Columbus, who are currently neck-and-neck.
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Pacific: We have a new leader! Anaheim saw a staggering 41% jump in their division-winning odds this week, now sitting at 76% as they leapfrog a struggling Vegas squad.
Playoff Picture
Eastern Conference
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Ready for the playoffs: A huge round of applause for Buffalo, Tampa Bay, and Carolina, who, although they haven’t officially clinched a spot, all have a greater than 99% chance of making the dance in our simulations.
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Ready for the fairway: It’s looking grim for Washington (6%), while Toronto, Florida, New Jersey, and the NY Rangers (all less than 1%) might as well start booking tee times.
Western Conference
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Playoff-bound: Congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche for being the first team to officially clinch a playoff berth! They are joined by Dallas (>99% of making it), Minnesota (>99%), Anaheim (97%), and Utah (95%) as the heavy hitters of the West.
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Homeward-bound: Winnipeg (6%) and St. Louis (3%) are on life support, while Calgary, Chicago, and Vancouver, all with less than a 1% chance, have been effectively sidelined.
Bubble Watch
The intensity is off the charts for these teams seeing the biggest swings in their playoff lives:
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Nashville Predators: Up a massive 42% this week (now at 58%). They are the hottest team on the bubble!
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San Jose Sharks: A devastating 27% drop (now at 26%). The clock is ticking in the Bay Area.
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Seattle Kraken: Sliding down 24% (now at 18%). The margin for error has officially vanished.
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Boston Bruins: A solid 13% increase (now at 75%). The Bruins are starting to look like a safe bet again.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Buffalo Sabres ▲1 (1604, ▲17)
Record: 44-20-7, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-1
- March 17: Won 2-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (19th, 1490)
- March 19: Won 5-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1451)
- March 21: Won 4-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1479)
- March 22: Lost in OT 6-5 @ Anaheim Ducks (21st, 1486)
Next week:
- March 25: vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1533)
- March 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (13th, 1514)
- March 28: vs. Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)
2. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1592, ▼7)
Record: 46-13-10, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: Clinched
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 92% (▲10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- March 16: Lost 7-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
- March 18: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Dallas Stars (5th, 1564)
- March 20: Won 4-1 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1438)
- March 22: Won in OT 3-2 @ Washington Capitals (12th, 1517)
Next week:
- March 24: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
- March 26: @ Winnipeg Jets (22nd, 1483)
- March 28: vs. Winnipeg Jets (22nd, 1483)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1572, ▲18)
Record: 43-21-5, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- March 17: Won 6-2 @ Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)
- March 19: Won 6-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1379)
- March 21: Won 5-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1493)
- March 22: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Calgary Flames (27th, 1461)
Next week:
- March 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1519)
- March 26: vs. Seattle Kraken (26th, 1468)
- March 28: vs. Ottawa Senators (6th, 1549)
- March 29: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1496)
4. Carolina Hurricanes (1565, ▼1)
Record: 45-19-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- March 17: Lost 5-1 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (7th, 1540)
- March 18: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
- March 20: Won in OT 4-3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (24th, 1474)
- March 22: Won 5-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
Next week:
- March 24: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1532)
- March 28: vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1448)
- March 29: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1532)
5. Dallas Stars ▼2 (1564, ▼19)
Record: 43-16-11, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼11)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼3)
Last week: 1-2-1
- March 16: Lost 6-3 vs. Utah Mammoth (14th, 1511)
- March 18: Won in SO 2-1 @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1592)
- March 21: Lost in OT 2-1 @ Minnesota Wild (11th, 1519)
- March 22: Lost 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (19th, 1490)
Next week:
- March 24: vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1448)
- March 26: @ New York Islanders (15th, 1497)
- March 28: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1536)
- March 29: @ Philadelphia Flyers (20th, 1488)
Overall Ratings
1 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1604 (▲17) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 1592 (▼7) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 1572 (▲18) 4 Carolina Hurricanes 1565 (▼1) 5 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1564 (▼19) 6 Ottawa Senators 1549 (▲4) 7 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1540 (▲9) 8 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1536 (▲1) 9 Boston Bruins (▲2) 1533 (▲14) 10 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1532 (▼2) 11 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1519 (▼11) 12 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1517 (▲15) 13 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1514 (▲5) 14 Utah Mammoth (▼1) 1511 (▲8) 15 New York Islanders (▲2) 1497 (▲4) 16 Nashville Predators (▲6) 1496 (▲15) 17 Edmonton Oilers (▼4) 1493 (▼10) 18 St. Louis Blues (▲2) 1492 (▲6) 19 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1490 (▼12) 20 Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) 1488 (▲10) 21 Anaheim Ducks (▲4) 1486 (▲10) 22 Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 1483 (▼5) 23 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1479 (▲2) 24 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 1474 (▼12) 25 Florida Panthers 1469 (▼7) 26 Seattle Kraken (▼7) 1468 (▼19) 27 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1461 (▲2) 28 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1451 (▼20) 29 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1448 (▲3) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1438 (▲6) 31 New York Rangers (▼2) 1437 (▼21) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1379 (▼2)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 98% (▲6) 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1% (▼1) 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 1% (▼3) 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) <1% (▼2) 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 8 New York Rangers (▼3) —
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres 66% (▲6) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 31% (▲1) 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 1% (▼5) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) <1% 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% (▼1) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) —
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 95% (▲12) 2 Dallas Stars 5% (▼12) 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) — 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2) — 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2) — 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2) —
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 76% (▲40) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 12% (▼18) 3 Edmonton Oilers 9% (▼11) 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% (▼7) 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1) <1% (▼4) 8 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) —
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 82% 3 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 71% (▲4) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 60% (▼9) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 20% (▲9) 6 Washington Capitals 6% 7 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) >99% (▲2) 3 Montreal Canadiens 86% (▼1) 4 Boston Bruins 75% (▲9) 5 Detroit Red Wings 57% (▼5) 6 Ottawa Senators 43% (▼7) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche ✓ 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) >99% 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) >99% 4 Utah Mammoth 95% (▲15) 5 Nashville Predators 58% (▲40) 6 Winnipeg Jets 5% (▼4) 7 St. Louis Blues 3% (▲1) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks 99% (▲9) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 83% (▼4) 3 Edmonton Oilers 76% (▼4) 4 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 39% (▲4) 5 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 24% (▼30) 6 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 18% (▼26) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 92% (▲10) 2 Dallas Stars 5% (▼11) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 2% 4 Buffalo Sabres 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 17% (▼1) 2 Buffalo Sabres 16% (▲3) 3 Dallas Stars (▼1) 10% (▼3) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 9% (▼1) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 9% (▲2) 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 4% 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 4% 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 4% (▼1) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 3% 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 3% (▼1) 9 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 3% 9 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1) 3% 13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 2% 13 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 2% 13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5) 2% (▲1) 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 2% (▼1) 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 1% (▲1) 21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼3) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3) <1% (▼1) 21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 21 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1%