What a week of high-stakes hockey! As we slide into the final stretch of the regular season, the separation between the contenders and the pretenders has never been clearer. We have a new team at the summit of the league, several divisions effectively locked up, and a frantic scramble for those final wild-card invitations.
The Top 5
- Buffalo (1, 1595): The Sabres have taken over the penthouse. With 13% Cup odds and a perfect week highlighted by a dominant win over Columbus, they are the team to beat heading into the postseason.
- Colorado (2, -1, 1592): Despite a slight slip in the rankings, the Avalanche remain a juggernaut. They’ve locked up everything there is to lock up, proving they are built for the grind.
- Carolina (3, +1, 1577): A massive week for the Hurricanes, including a 7-2 thrashing of Chicago, sees them climb into the top three. Their consistency is frightening.
- Tampa Bay (4, -1, 1576): A tough week with losses to Buffalo and Ottawa caused a minor dip, but the Lightning remain firmly entrenched as a heavyweight contender.
- Ottawa (5, +1, 1571): The Senators are officially the hottest ticket in town. A jump into the Top 5 comes on the back of a huge week where they sent a message to the rest of the Atlantic.
Biggest Risers
- Vegas (13, +4, 1509): The Golden Knights are finding their playoff gear at exactly the right time, surging four spots and seizing control of their division.
- Florida (25, +4, 1462): While the playoff dream has faded, the Panthers showed plenty of heart this week, climbing four spots in the rankings.
- Washington (8, +3, 1540): The Capitals are making a loud statement, moving up three spots and keeping their slim playoff hopes alive with a massive win over Pittsburgh.
- Los Angeles (21, +3, 1486): The Kings are charging hard, picking up 12 rating points and jumping three spots to solidify their position in the West.
Biggest Fallers
- Toronto (28, -6, 1456): A rough stretch for the Maple Leafs, who tumbled six spots in the rankings after a winless week.
- San Jose (26, -3, 1459): The Sharks continue to slide, dropping three spots as they struggle to find late-season momentum.
Division Dogfights
Atlantic
This was the week of the Sabre. Buffalo saw their division-winning odds skyrocket to 72% (a +49% swing), while Tampa Bay saw their chances fall to 22%.
Metropolitan
It is officially Carolina’s world. The Hurricanes have secured the top spot in the Metro, leaving the rest of the division to battle for positioning.
Central
Colorado has turned the Central into a victory lap, officially clinching the division and leaving no doubt about who owns the middle of the map.
Pacific
Things got wild out West. Vegas took a commanding lead in the division race, with their win odds jumping to 61% (+40%), while Edmonton (31%) and Anaheim (7%) both saw significant drops.
Playoff Picture
The Clinch Club
A huge round of applause for the teams that have officially punched their tickets!
- Colorado: A massive congratulations for clinching the President’s Trophy, the Central Division, and a Playoff Berth.
- Carolina: Congratulations on clinching the Metropolitan Division and a Playoff Berth.
The following have clinched playoff berths:
Eastern Conference
- Carolina
- Pittsburgh
- Boston
- Buffalo
- Montreal
- Ottawa
- Tampa Bay
Western Conference
- Colorado
- Dallas
- Minnesota
- Vegas
End of the Road
The following teams have been officially eliminated from playoff contention. While the season didn’t end with a trophy, we salute the effort.
Eastern Conference
- Florida
- New Jersey
- NY Islanders
- NY Rangers
- Toronto
Western Conference
- Calgary
- Chicago
- Seattle
- St. Louis
- Vancouver
Bubble Watch
The intensity is off the charts for these teams caught in the middle. Here are the biggest movers in the playoff probability race:
- Los Angeles (76% Playoff Odds): The Kings are the week’s biggest winners on the bubble, seeing a massive +31% swing in their postseason probability.
- Philadelphia (77% Playoff Odds): The Flyers are flying high after a +21% jump in their odds, making them a near-lock if they keep this pace.
- Washington (16% Playoff Odds): It’s a steep climb, but the Capitals kept the lights on with a +10% increase in their playoff chances.
And here’s the teams still fighting it out for those last playoff spots, along with our calculated odds of them making it.
Eastern Conference (1 spot left)
- Philadelphia: 94 pts, 2 games remaining, 77%
- Washington: 93 pts, 1 game remaining, 16%
- Columbus: 92 pts, 1 game remaining, 7%
- Detroit: 91 pts, 2 games remaining, <1%
Western Conference (4 spots left)
- Utah: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, >99%
- Edmonton: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, >99%
- Anaheim: 90 pts, 2 games remaining, 92%
- Los Angeles: 87 pts, 3 games remaining, 76%
- Nashville: 86 pts, 2 games remaining, 31%
- Winnipeg: 82 pts, 3 games remaining, 1%
- San Jose: 82 pts, 3 games remaining, 1%
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Buffalo Sabres ▲2 (1595, ▲18)
Record: 49-23-8, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 6: Won 4-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1576)
- April 8: Won 5-3 @ New York Rangers (30th, 1445)
- April 9: Won 5-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (16th, 1504)
Next week:
- April 13: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1415)
- April 15: vs. Dallas Stars (7th, 1554)
2. Colorado Avalanche (1592, ▲8)
Record: 52-16-11, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 100% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-1
- April 7: Won 3-1 @ St. Louis Blues (14th, 1505)
- April 9: Won 3-1 vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
- April 11: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1509)
Next week:
- April 13: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1512)
- April 14: @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
- April 16: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1449)
3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1577, ▲11)
Record: 52-22-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- April 7: Won in OT 6-5 vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1529)
- April 9: Won 7-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1415)
- April 11: Won 4-1 @ Utah Mammoth (14th, 1505)
Next week:
- April 13: @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1501)
- April 14: @ New York Islanders (23rd, 1468)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1576, ▼13)
Record: 49-25-6, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼5)
Last week: 1-3-0
- April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (1st, 1595)
- April 7: Lost 6-2 @ Ottawa Senators (5th, 1571)
- April 9: Lost 2-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (6th, 1566)
- April 11: Won 2-1 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1529)
Next week:
- April 13: vs. Detroit Red Wings (20th, 1491)
- April 15: vs. New York Rangers (30th, 1445)
5. Ottawa Senators ▲1 (1571, ▲18)
Record: 43-27-11, 5th in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100% (▲30)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲4)
Last week: 3-0-1
- April 7: Won 6-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1576)
- April 9: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (25th, 1462)
- April 11: Won 3-0 @ New York Islanders (23rd, 1468)
- April 12: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)
Next week:
- April 15: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (28th, 1456)
Overall Ratings
1 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1595 (▲18) 2 Colorado Avalanche 1592 (▲8) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1577 (▲11) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 1576 (▼13) 5 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1571 (▲18) 6 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1566 7 Dallas Stars 1554 (▲10) 8 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1540 (▲24) 9 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1531 (▼9) 10 Boston Bruins 1529 (▲3) 11 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1526 (▼9) 12 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1512 (▲2) 13 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 1509 (▲7) 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1505 (▼8) 14 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼2) 1505 (▼10) 16 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1504 (▼2) 17 Winnipeg Jets 1502 (▲5) 18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1501 (▲11) 18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1501 (▲10) 20 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1491 (▼3) 21 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 1486 (▲11) 22 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1477 (▼5) 23 New York Islanders (▲1) 1468 (▼6) 24 Calgary Flames (▲2) 1464 (▼1) 25 Florida Panthers (▲4) 1462 (▲7) 26 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1459 (▼12) 27 Anaheim Ducks 1457 (▼4) 28 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6) 1456 (▼23) 29 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1449 (▼3) 30 New York Rangers (▼2) 1445 (▼11) 31 Chicago Blackhawks 1415 (▼19) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1358 (▼3)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes ✓ 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets — 2 (tie) New York Islanders — 2 (tie) New York Rangers — 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils — 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers — 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins — 2 (tie) Washington Capitals —
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 72% (▲60) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 22% (▼53) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 5% (▼8) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins — 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings — 4 (tie) Florida Panthers — 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators — 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs —
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche ✓ 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks — 2 (tie) Dallas Stars — 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild — 2 (tie) Nashville Predators — 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues — 2 (tie) Utah Mammoth — 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets —
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 61% (▲40) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 31% (▼17) 3 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 7% (▼22) 4 Los Angeles Kings 1% 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) — 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) — (▼1) 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) — 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) —
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✓ 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins ✓ 3 Philadelphia Flyers 77% (▲21) 4 Washington Capitals (▲2) 16% (▲10) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 7% (▼16) 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) — (▼27) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) — 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) —
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) ✓ (▲2) 1 (tie) Buffalo Sabres ✓ 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens ✓ 1 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4) ✓ (▲30) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning ✓ 6 Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼19) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers — 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs —
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✓ 1 (tie) Dallas Stars ✓ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild ✓ 4 Utah Mammoth >99% (▲2) 5 Nashville Predators 31% (▼5) 6 Winnipeg Jets 1% (▼4) 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) — 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) — (▼5)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) ✓ (▲5) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) >99% (▲2) 3 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 92% (▼3) 4 Los Angeles Kings 76% (▲40) 5 San Jose Sharks 1% (▼29) 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) — 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken — (▼1) 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche ✓ (▲1)
Colorado has clinched the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 18% (▲2) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 13% (▲3) 3 Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▲1) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 9% (▼5) 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 8% (▲1) 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4) 8% (▲4) 7 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 7% (▼1) 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 4% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 4% (▼2) 11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 3% 11 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼2) 3% (▼1) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 3% 14 Philadelphia Flyers 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 1% 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1% 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% 15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5) 1% (▲1) 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5) <1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5) <1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1% 23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3) — 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼3) — 23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) — 23 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) — 23 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) — 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼3) — 23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3) — 23 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3) — 23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) — 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3) —