Shane's Computer Solution Repository

It was a week of surprises!  Boston moved back to the top of the rankings, but Tampa Bay dropped sharply this week, moving down 3 spots to 4th, and losing 14 rating points.  They are also no longer favoured to win their division, with Carolina, who moved into 5th place overall in the rankings, who win the Central Division in 35% of our simulations, compared to 31% for Tampa Bay.  Toronto is now favoured to win the Stanley Cup, with a 10% probability of that happening!  They are also now expected to win the President’s Trophy, which they do in 23% of our simulations.

The top 3 movers this week were Carolina, San Jose, and Los Angeles.  Carolina went 3-0-1, including a win over Tampa Bay, and moved up 19 rating points and 3 positions in our rankings.  They have three games scheduled against the Lightning this week, so we’ll see if they can keep things up.  San Jose went 2-0-1, beating Anaheim and St. Louis, and losing to the Blues in OT, also moving them up 19 rating points.  With that performance, their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 17% to 29%, still a longshot, but a little more likely now.  Los Angeles went 3-0-0, beating Arizona twice and Minnesota once.  That moved them up 17 rating points, and increased their chances of making the playoffs from 22% to 40%.

On the down side, Calgary and Anaheim both dropped 23 points, and St. Louis dropped 20.  The Flames went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against Vancouver.  Next week, they have two games with the Leafs, so that will be difficult.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 64% to 42%.  The Ducks went 0-3-0, losing to San Jose once and Minnesota twice.  Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 32% down to 12%.  St. Louis went 1-2-0, with their only win coming against San Jose in overtime.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1561, ▼4)

Record: 11-3-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

• February 18: Lost 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1499)
• February 21: Won 7-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 25: @ New York Islanders (11th, 1517)
• February 26: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)
• February 28: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1560, ▲15)

Record: 9-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 16: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 20: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
• February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1498)
• February 26: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)
• February 27: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1560, ▲12)

Record: 14-3-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 17: Won 2-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 18: Won 7-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
• February 20: Won 5-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (16th, 1501)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 24: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
• February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1526)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1557, ▼17)

Record: 10-4-1, 4th in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-0

• February 15: Lost 6-4 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 18: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
• February 20: Lost 4-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 20: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

Next week:

• February 22: @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 24: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 25: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
• February 27: vs. Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1539, ▲19)

Record: 12-3-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▲12)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• February 15: Won 7-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (14th, 1505)
• February 17: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
• February 19: Won 5-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)
• February 20: Won 4-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 20: Postponed vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 24: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 25: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
• February 27: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)         1561 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    1560 (▲15)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   1560 (▲12)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   1557 (▼17)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   1539 (▲19)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)   1537 (▼8)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  1537 (▼15)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)       1526 (▲12)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)      1521 (▲7)
10        Washington Capitals (▲3)  1519 (▲10)
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)    1517 (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       1517 (▼20)
13        Winnipeg Jets (▲4)        1511 (▲10)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1505 (▼11)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)          1505
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)    1501 (▼8)
17       New Jersey Devils (▲1)     1499 (▲2)
18        Minnesota Wild (▲3)       1498 (▲9)
19        Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)  1497 (▲7)
20        Arizona Coyotes (▼1)      1491 (▼2)
21        Los Angeles Kings (▲4)    1487 (▲17)
22        New York Rangers (▲1)     1483 (▲3)
23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼7)        1481 (▼23)
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)    1481
25        San Jose Sharks (▲4)      1469 (▲19)
26        Vancouver Canucks         1467 (▲1)
27        Nashville Predators (▲1)  1464 (▲4)
28        Anaheim Ducks (▼4)        1456 (▼23)
29        Buffalo Sabres (▼2)       1452 (▼9)
30        Ottawa Senators           1411 (▼4)
31        Detroit Red Wings         1403 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   35% (▲16)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   31% (▼21)
 3       Florida Panthers           21% (▲7)
 4       Dallas Stars               6%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    3%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets      3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings          <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators        <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              50% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        17% (▼5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   10% (▲4)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    8% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   6% (▲1)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼2)     5% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)    39% (▲18)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  29% (▼15)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       13% (▼8)
 4       Minnesota Wild             8% (▲3)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     4% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       3%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)       3% (▲2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        63% (▲12)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         13% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       12% (▲2)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    9% (▼9)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)   89% (▲12)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)   87% (▼7)
 3       Florida Panthers           79% (▲9)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)          49%
 5       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)    41% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 40% (▼14)
 7       Nashville Predators        13% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings          1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins              91% (▼1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers        71% (▼8)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)   59% (▲11)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)    55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)   48% (▲6)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▼1)     42% (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲1)      22% (▲3)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)        12% (▼9)

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    87% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)  81% (▼9)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)       65% (▼14)
 4       Minnesota Wild             51% (▲9)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)     40% (▲18)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)       34% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▲1)       29% (▲12)
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)         12% (▼20)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs        98% (▲3)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       83% (▲13)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)         81% (▲14)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)    75% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames             42% (▼22)
 6       Vancouver Canucks          18% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators            3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   23% (▲10)
 2       Boston Bruins              14% (▼2)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)   13% (▲7)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   11% (▼12)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)    9% (▲5)
 6       Florida Panthers (▲1)      7% (▲3)
 7       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)  5% (▼7)
 8       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)       2% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)    2% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)         2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          1%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)        1%
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    1%
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)     1%
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)   1%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)       1% (▼3)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)   1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)   10% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins              9%
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)    9% (▲3)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)   8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)   6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)  6% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)   5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)      4%
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)       4% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)   4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)         4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)          3%
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5)    3% (▼1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)    3%
16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)       2%
16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 2% (▼1)
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲6)     2% (▲1)
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)        2%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)     2%
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)   2%
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼10)       1% (▼2)
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks         1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers           1%
22 (tie) Nashville Predators        1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)       1% (▲1)
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks          1%
28 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼6)         <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
28 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)     <1%
28 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)       <1%

Once again this week, Tampa Bay and Boston remain the top two teams in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they’ve flipped places again this week, with Tampa Bay now on top. Tampa Bay went 3-1-0, and Boston went 2-1-0, although one of Boston’s wins was in overtime against the 23rd ranked Rangers.

Vegas went 3-1-0 to move back into the top 5, at number 3. Toronto remained the 4th ranked team, going 2-1-0, but with three games against 30th ranked Ottawa next week, I expect to see their rating move up a bit. Rounding out the top 5, tied in 5th, are Colorado, who lost their only game last week (two games were postponed), and Philadelphia, who had all four of their games postponed.

Big movers last week include Edmonton (3-0-0), who gained 22 rating points and moved up 9 spots to 11th, the Islanders (2-0-1), who gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 9th, and Columbus (2-0-1), who also gained 15 rating points and moved up 5 spots to 10th.

On the downside, Nashville had the worst week, going 1-3-0 with their only win coming against the worst-ranked Detroit, but they did play top-ranked Tampa Bay twice, so maybe their week wasn’t as bad as it looked. Other big droppers were the Rangers (0-2-1, with one game postponed), who lost 14 rating points and dropped 4 spots to 23rd, and San Jose (1-2-0), who lost 13 rating points and dropped 1 spot to 29th.

Finally, we’re giving Tampa Bay the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, where our simulations show them having an 11% chance of winning it all, closely followed by Boston at 9%. Perhaps most surprisingly, Toronto, who haven’t won a cup since 1967, have an 8% chance, tied with Vegas.

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1574, ▲11)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 8: Won 4-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 9: Won 6-1 @ Nashville Predators (28th, 1460)
• February 11: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 13: Won 6-1 @ Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Florida Panthers (11th, 1514)
• February 18: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)
• February 20: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1505)

2. Boston Bruins ▼1 (1565, ▼2)

Record: 10-2-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 92% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 10: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 12: Won 1-0 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 13: Lost 4-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1518)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 21: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (5th, 1545)

3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲3 (1552, ▲9)

Record: 10-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 9: Won 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 11: Lost 1-0 vs. Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1479)
• February 13: Won 3-1 @ San Jose Sharks (29th, 1450)
• February 14: Won 1-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 16: vs. Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)
• February 20: @ Colorado Avalanche (5th, 1545)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1548, ▲3)

Record: 11-3-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 8: Won 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1466)
• February 10: Won 4-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)
• February 13: Lost 2-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 17: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 18: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1415)
• February 20: @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1509)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼2 (1545, ▼7)

Record: 7-4-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 0-1-0

• February 9: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 11: Postponed vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1493)
• February 14: Lost 1-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

Next week:

• February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)
• February 20: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, 1552)

5 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 0-0-0

• February 9: Postponed @ Washington Capitals (13th, 1509)
• February 11: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 13: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (18th, 1497)
• February 14: Postponed @ New York Rangers (23th, 1480)

Next week:

• February 18: vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1480)
• February 21: @ Boston Bruins (2nd, 1565)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1574 (▲11)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1565 (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1552 (▲9)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           1548 (▲3)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1545 (▼7)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545
 7       St. Louis Blues               1537 (▲7)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes           1520 (▲2)
 9       New York Islanders (▲5)       1518 (▲15)
10       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1516 (▲15)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1514 (▲22)
11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲6)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1509 (▼6)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      1509 (▼7)
15       Dallas Stars (▼5)             1505 (▼10)
16       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1504 (▲7)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1501 (▼12)
18       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1493 (▼7)
20       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1490 (▲8)
21       Minnesota Wild                1489
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1481 (▼7)
23       New York Rangers (▼4)         1480 (▼14)
24       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1479 (▲5)
25       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲6)
26       Vancouver Canucks             1466 (▼4)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1461
28       Nashville Predators (▼4)      1460 (▼17)
29       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1450 (▼13)
30       Ottawa Senators               1415 (▼8)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           19%
 3       Florida Panthers              14% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  6% (▼7)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▲1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       3% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 7 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 49% (▲1)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22%
 3       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils             6%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      6% (▼4)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲2)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2%
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1% (▼3)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          44% (▲8)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            21% (▼8)
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          21% (▲4)
 4       Minnesota Wild                5% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          3% (▼3)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           51% (▲6)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            18% (▼7)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 11% (▼7)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          10% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           9% (▲2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1%
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           94% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           77% (▲5)
 3       Florida Panthers              70% (▲5)
 4       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    54% (▲15)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             49% (▼13)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       39%
 7       Nashville Predators           14% (▼15)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             2% (▼2)

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 92% (▲2)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           79%
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       56% (▲13)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      48% (▼9)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        43%
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      42% (▲10)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           21% (▼1)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         19% (▼15)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲6)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       77% (▼5)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           42% (▼1)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          40% (▼5)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 32% (▲2)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        22% (▲3)
 8       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          17% (▼10)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▲2)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▼5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          70% (▲21)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            67% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           64% (▲5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3% (▼4)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           23% (▲7)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            16%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           13%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12% (▲2)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           5% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       4% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         4%
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
10       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       3% (▼3)
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲9)    1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲9)          1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1%
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       1%
11 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲9)      1% (▲1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▲2)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6%
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲6)          4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             3% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          2%
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           2%
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        2%
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      2% (▲1)
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼8)       1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
22 (tie) New York Rangers (▼8)         1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
29 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
29 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
29 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          <1% (▼1)

 

This week’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings are out a little later than usual, but here they are!

Boston had a strong week (3-0-0 against the Capitals and Flyers) to move into first in the rankings.  Tampa Bay also went 3-0-0, but because they played against weaker teams, their rating didn’t increase as much as Boston’s, so they’ve dropped into 2nd place.  The Leafs cracked the top 5 for the first time this year, possibly for the first time since I’ve done the ratings.  Other big movers included Winnipeg (12th, 2-0-1, up 12 points), Arizona (16th, 2-1-0, up 14 points), and the Rangers (19th, 2-0-0, up 15 points).

Boston and Tampa Bay are still the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We give both teams a 9% chance of winning.  Ottawa and Detroit are the longshots, at only a 7% and 4% chance of even making the playoffs.

On the downside, big droppers were Washington (9th, 0-3-0, down 24 points), Vancouver (26th, 0-4-0, down 23 points), and Los Angeles (27th, 0-3-0, down 19 points).

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1567, ▲17)

Record: 8-1-2, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-3 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 3: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)
• February 5: Won 2-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1545)

Next week:

• February 10: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 12: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)
• February 13: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1503)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1563, ▲13)

Record: 7-1-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 1: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 3: Won 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)
• February 5: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• February 8: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 9: @ Nashville Predators (24th, 1477)
• February 11: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)
• February 13: @ Florida Panthers (13th, 1508)

3. Colorado Avalanche (1552, ▲6)

Record: 7-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 2: Won 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 4: Postponed vs. Minnesota Wild (21th, 1489)
• February 6: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)
• February 7: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (7th, 1530)

Next week:

• February 9: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 11: vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1500)
• February 14: @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1543)

4 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers ▼1 (1545, ▼1)

Record: 8-3-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• February 3: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 5: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1567)
• February 7: Won 7-4 @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)

Next week:

• February 9: @ Washington Capitals (9th, 1516)
• February 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 13: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1497)
• February 14: @ New York Rangers (19th, 1494)

4 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1545, ▲11)

Record: 9-2-1, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 4: Won 7-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 6: Won 5-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)

Next week:

• February 8: vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1470)
• February 10: @ Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)
• February 13: vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1515)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1567 (▲17)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1563 (▲13)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            1552 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1545 (▼1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1545 (▲11)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1543 (▲10)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1530 (▼14)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1518 (▲1)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1516 (▼24)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1515
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1515 (▲9)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1513 (▲12)
13       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1508 (▼6)
14       New York Islanders (▲2)       1503 (▲6)
15       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    1501 (▼9)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲7)          1500 (▲14)
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1497 (▼5)
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1497
19       New York Rangers (▲6)         1494 (▲15)
20       Edmonton Oilers               1492 (▼2)
21       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1489 (▼6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1488 (▲9)
23       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      1482 (▼13)
24       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1477 (▼10)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1474 (▲7)
26       Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1470 (▼23)
27       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1464 (▼19)
28       San Jose Sharks               1463 (▲2)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1461
30       Ottawa Senators               1423 (▼2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1405 (▲3)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           43% (▲14)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         15% (▼6)
 4       Dallas Stars                  13% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       4% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼4)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼3)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲1)            48% (▲22)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           22% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼2)      10% (▼17)
 4       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        6%
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       5% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         4% (▲2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     36% (▲10)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          17% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6% (▼2)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▲1)
 7       San Jose Sharks               2%
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲9)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            25% (▲2)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames                7% (▼4)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          4% (▼2)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           88% (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         65% (▼5)
 4       Dallas Stars                  62% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       39% (▲10)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         39% (▼11)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      29% (▼8)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins (▲2)            90% (▲13)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      79%
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      57% (▼21)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       43% (▲8)
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        43% (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         34% (▲12)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      32% (▼13)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           22%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     84% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          70% (▼9)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          45% (▲11)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           43% (▼7)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▲7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲4)
 8       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        19% (▼19)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▲7)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            85% (▲8)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 78% (▲13)
 4       Calgary Flames                59%
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          49% (▲1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        29% (▼26)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            16% (▲8)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           16% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▲4)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     10% (▲3)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      6%
 6 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲5)       6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼2)         4% (▼3)
10 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             3% (▼2)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          3% (▼5)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
13       Washington Capitals (▼11)     2% (▼7)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲10)         1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲10)      1% (▲1)
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 9% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     7% (▲2)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6%
 7       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      4%
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             4%
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       4%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼8)      3% (▼3)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲11)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          2%
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       2%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲11)        2% (▲1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼10)       1% (▼2)
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

 

I’ve been calculating the “McDonald Power Ratings” in both the CFL and NHL for the last three years, mostly just for myself and my son, but last year, I started posting the NHL ones to my blog.  Unfortunately, the season shut down early, so I stopped doing them, and after the long COVID lay-off, I didn’t think they would be very accurate for last year’s playoffs.  But, I’ve started them again this year, and here’s the first posting for the year!  I’ll be posting the new ratings every Monday.

As more games are being played, the calibration of our internal models is beginning to settle down, so we’re starting to see less big jumps in ratings.  Boston, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia continue to be the top three teams, although Colorado (3-0-1 this week) and St. Louis (3-0-0) both made big moves to round out the top five.

Other big movers this week included Washington (3-0-0, +11 rating points) and Toronto (2-0-1, +16 rating points), although the biggest mover was Vancouver (4-0-0, +27 rating points).

We’re currently predicting that Boston, Colorado, and Tampa Bay have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup (7% chance for each), and Tampa Bay has the best chance of winning the President’s Trophy (10%).

At the bottom end of the scale, Ottawa (ranked 2nd last) and Detroit (ranked last) have less than a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Ottawa had the biggest downward move, going 0-4-0 in the last week and dropping a whopping 23 rating points.

In the following rankings, the change indicated is the amount of change from the previous week.

The Top 5

1 (tie). Boston Bruins (1550, ▲5)

Record: 5-1-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• January 26: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 28: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
• January 30: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

Next week:

• February 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
• February 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 5: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
• February 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1461)

1 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1550, ▲6)

Record: 4-1-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 28: Lost in OT 1-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (9th, 1517)
• January 30: Won 4-3 vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
• February 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
• February 5: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)

3 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲4 (1546, ▲18)

Record: 6-3-1, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 77% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• January 26: Won 7-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 28: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
• January 30: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
• February 6: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
• February 7: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)

3 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers (1546, ▲11)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲17)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 26: Won 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
• January 30: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
• January 31: Won in OT 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• February 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 5: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
• February 7: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)

5. St. Louis Blues (1544, ▲15)

Record: 6-2-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲16)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 26: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533)
• January 28: Game @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533) postponed
• January 30: Won 6-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
• January 31: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)

Next week:

• February 2: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 4: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
• February 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
• February 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1550 (▲5)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1550 (▲6)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1546 (▲18)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1546 (▲11)
 5       St. Louis Blues               1544 (▲15)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1540 (▲11)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1534 (▲16)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1533 (▼1)
 9       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1517 (▲6)
10       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1515 (▼4)
11       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1514 (▲7)
12       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1510 (▼2)
13       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1506 (▼3)
14       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1502 (▼5)
15       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1501 (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders            1497 (▼8)
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1497 (▼7)
18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1495 (▼11)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1495 (▼3)
20       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          1494 (▼10)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1493 (▲27)
22       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1487 (▼8)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1486 (▼2)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1483 (▲3)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1479 (▲2)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         1479 (▼7)
27       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1467 (▼12)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▼2)
28 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1461 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1425 (▼23)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1402 (▼7)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           29% (▲1)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         21% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             15% (▼5)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         8% (▼2)
 6       Nashville Predators           5% (▼2)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼1)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      27% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      26% (▲9)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      7% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        6% (▼6)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       4% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              2% (▼2)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          28% (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     26% (▼4)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            25% (▲10)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           8% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▼1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            2% (▼4)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      36% (▲12)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       23% (▼4)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▼3)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           11% (▼6)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        9% (▲6)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1% (▼3)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           78% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         70% (▲10)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲10)
 4       Dallas Stars (▼2)             63% (▼3)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         50% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           37% (▼6)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            29% (▼5)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▼5)

East Division

 1       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      79% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           78% (▲13)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼2)            77% (▲6)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      45% (▼3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        41% (▼12)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       35% (▼14)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           22% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              22% (▼6)

West Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          79% (▲16)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       77% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     75% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild                50% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             38% (▲1)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               34% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            23% (▼13)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          23% (▼11)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      86% (▲10)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       77% (▼1)
 3       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▼2)
 4       Calgary Flames                59% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        55% (▲25)
 6       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          48% (▼7)
 7       Ottawa Senators               9% (▼18)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           10%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      9% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            8% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      8% (▲4)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          8% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              7% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     7% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       6% (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼6)             5% (▼1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼8)       5% (▼2)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           2% (▼2)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            2% (▼2)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1%
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1%
16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1% (▼2)
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1% (▼2)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12)       1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           7%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           6% (▲1)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4%
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars                  4%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲14)       3% (▲2)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
17 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4)      2%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      2% (▼1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         1% (▼1)
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
30 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          <1% (▼1)

Philadelphia has continued their winning ways, increasing their rating by 18 points.  I’ve now got them at a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They’ve got two tough games coming up though: #1 Boston on Tuesday, and #2 Tampa Bay on Thursday.

Boston is still the favourite, with a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, down 1% from last week.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1595, ▼2)

Record: 43-14-12, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 79% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 3: Won 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
• March 5: Won in OT 2-1 @ Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
• March 7: Lost 5-3 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)

Next week:

• March 10: @ Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
• March 13: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)
• March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▲1)

Record: 43-20-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 3: Lost 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 5: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1446)
• March 7: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 8: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)

Next week:

• March 10: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1511)
• March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (4th, 1569)
• March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
• March 15: vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1580, ▼3)

Record: 41-19-8, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 2: Won 2-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (31st, 1348)
• March 4: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
• March 6: Lost 6-3 @ Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
• March 8: Won 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)

Next week:

• March 9: @ Los Angeles Kings (26th, 1447)
• March 11: vs. New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
• March 13: vs. Vancouver Canucks (23rd, 1485)
• March 15: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (7th, 1537)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲1 (1569, ▲18)

Record: 41-20-7, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 4: Won 5-2 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1539)
• March 5: Won 4-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (14th, 1509)
• March 7: Won 3-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1435)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1595)
• March 12: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1584)
• March 14: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1516)
• March 15: vs. Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1527)

5. St. Louis Blues ▼1 (1558, ▲6)

Record: 41-18-10, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 3: Won 3-1 @ New York Rangers (19th, 1504)
• March 6: Lost 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (20th, 1492)
• March 8: Won 2-0 @ Chicago Black Hawks (24th, 1459)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1506)
• March 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (26th, 1447)
• March 13: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1453)
• March 15: vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1424)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1595 (▼2)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▲1)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1580 (▼3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1569 (▲18)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1558 (▲6)
 6       Washington Capitals           1539
 7       Vegas Golden Knights          1537 (▲7)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          1527 (▲8)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1522 (▲2)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1516 (▲3)
11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             1513 (▼17)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲8)            1513 (▲13)
13       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1511 (▼17)
14 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1509 (▲4)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1509 (▲2)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1508 (▼5)
17       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1506 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▼3)           1505 (▼3)
19       New York Rangers (▼9)         1504 (▼17)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1492 (▲12)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1489 (▲3)
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       1489 (▼19)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1485 (▼8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1459 (▼3)
25       San Jose Sharks               1453 (▼7)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1447 (▲7)
26 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1447 (▲10)
28       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1446
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1435 (▼17)
30       Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲5)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1348 (▲10)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals           50% (▼12)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           45% (▲23)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 89% (▲8)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           11% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            53% (▼6)
 2       St. Louis Blues               46% (▲9)
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           <1%
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲11)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           4% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             4% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

Making the Playoffs

Eastern Conference

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99%
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           91% (▲2)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           71% (▼17)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      69% (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▼1)       59% (▼20)
 9       Columbus Blue Jackets         47% (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▲1)         41% (▲19)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         21% (▼14)
12 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)
12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
12 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%

Western Conference

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               >99%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars                  97% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          97% (▲7)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     97% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲1)           70% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           59% (▲10)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        56% (▼17)
 9       Nashville Predators (▼1)      53% (▼7)
10       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            42% (▲13)
11       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          25% (▼5)
12       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼5)
13 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
13 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲11)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            6% (▼4)
 4       St. Louis Blues               4% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      2% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            13%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▲1)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          9% (▲1)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             3% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
11 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    2%
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2%
11 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲9)            2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼5)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%