It was a week of surprises! Boston moved back to the top of the rankings, but Tampa Bay dropped sharply this week, moving down 3 spots to 4th, and losing 14 rating points. They are also no longer favoured to win their division, with Carolina, who moved into 5th place overall in the rankings, who win the Central Division in 35% of our simulations, compared to 31% for Tampa Bay. Toronto is now favoured to win the Stanley Cup, with a 10% probability of that happening! They are also now expected to win the President’s Trophy, which they do in 23% of our simulations.
The top 3 movers this week were Carolina, San Jose, and Los Angeles. Carolina went 3-0-1, including a win over Tampa Bay, and moved up 19 rating points and 3 positions in our rankings. They have three games scheduled against the Lightning this week, so we’ll see if they can keep things up. San Jose went 2-0-1, beating Anaheim and St. Louis, and losing to the Blues in OT, also moving them up 19 rating points. With that performance, their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 17% to 29%, still a longshot, but a little more likely now. Los Angeles went 3-0-0, beating Arizona twice and Minnesota once. That moved them up 17 rating points, and increased their chances of making the playoffs from 22% to 40%.
On the down side, Calgary and Anaheim both dropped 23 points, and St. Louis dropped 20. The Flames went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against Vancouver. Next week, they have two games with the Leafs, so that will be difficult. Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 64% to 42%. The Ducks went 0-3-0, losing to San Jose once and Minnesota twice. Their chances of making the playoffs dropped from 32% down to 12%. St. Louis went 1-2-0, with their only win coming against San Jose in overtime.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins ▲1 (1561, ▼4)
Record: 11-3-2, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%
Last week: 1-1-0
- February 18: Lost 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1499)
- February 21: Won 7-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (6th, 1537)
Next week:
- February 25: @ New York Islanders (11th, 1517)
- February 26: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)
- February 28: @ New York Rangers (22th, 1483)
2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1560, ▲15)
Record: 9-4-1, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 87% (▲10)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 16: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
- February 20: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
Next week:
- February 22: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1537)
- February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1498)
- February 26: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)
- February 27: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1491)
2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1560, ▲12)
Record: 14-3-2, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 23% (▲10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- February 15: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
- February 17: Won 2-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
- February 18: Won 7-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (30th, 1411)
- February 20: Won 5-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (16th, 1501)
Next week:
- February 22: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
- February 24: vs. Calgary Flames (23th, 1481)
- February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (8th, 1526)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1557, ▼17)
Record: 10-4-1, 4th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 87% (▼7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼12)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)
Last week: 0-2-0
- February 15: Lost 6-4 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
- February 18: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
- February 20: Lost 4-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
- February 20: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
Next week:
- February 22: @ Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
- February 24: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
- February 25: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (5th, 1539)
- February 27: vs. Dallas Stars (14th, 1505)
5. Carolina Hurricanes ▲3 (1539, ▲19)
Record: 12-3-1, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 89% (▲12)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- February 15: Won 7-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (14th, 1505)
- February 17: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
- February 19: Won 5-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)
- February 20: Won 4-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
- February 20: Postponed vs. Chicago Blackhawks (23th, 1481)
Next week:
- February 22: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
- February 24: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
- February 25: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1557)
- February 27: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1521)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1561 (▼4) 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 1560 (▲15) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 1560 (▲12) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 1557 (▼17) 5 Carolina Hurricanes (▲3) 1539 (▲19) 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) 1537 (▼8) 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1537 (▼15) 8 Edmonton Oilers (▲3) 1526 (▲12) 9 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1521 (▲7) 10 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1519 (▲10) 11 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 1517 (▼1) 11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4) 1517 (▼20) 13 Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1511 (▲10) 14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1505 (▼11) 14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 1505 16 Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 1501 (▼8) 17 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1499 (▲2) 18 Minnesota Wild (▲3) 1498 (▲9) 19 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1497 (▲7) 20 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1491 (▼2) 21 Los Angeles Kings (▲4) 1487 (▲17) 22 New York Rangers (▲1) 1483 (▲3) 23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼7) 1481 (▼23) 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1481 25 San Jose Sharks (▲4) 1469 (▲19) 26 Vancouver Canucks 1467 (▲1) 27 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1464 (▲4) 28 Anaheim Ducks (▼4) 1456 (▼23) 29 Buffalo Sabres (▼2) 1452 (▼9) 30 Ottawa Senators 1411 (▼4) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1403 (▼2)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 35% (▲16) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 31% (▼21) 3 Florida Panthers 21% (▲7) 4 Dallas Stars 6% 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 3% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 3% (▼2) 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 7 (tie) Nashville Predators <1%
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 50% (▲1) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 17% (▼5) 3 Washington Capitals (▲1) 10% (▲4) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 8% (▼1) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 6% (▲1) 6 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 5% (▼1) 7 New York Rangers (▲1) 2% (▲1) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1% (▼1)
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 39% (▲18) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 29% (▼15) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 13% (▼8) 4 Minnesota Wild 8% (▲3) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 4% (▲3) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 3% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 3% (▲2) 8 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1% (▼1)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 63% (▲12) 2 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 13% (▲2) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 12% (▲2) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 9% (▼9) 5 Calgary Flames 2% (▼7) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 89% (▲12) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 87% (▼7) 3 Florida Panthers 79% (▲9) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 49% 5 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 41% (▲2) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 40% (▼14) 7 Nashville Predators 13% (▼1) 8 Detroit Red Wings 1% (▼1)
East Division
1 Boston Bruins 91% (▼1) 2 Philadelphia Flyers 71% (▼8) 3 Washington Capitals (▲1) 59% (▲11) 4 New York Islanders (▼1) 55% (▼1) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 48% (▲6) 6 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 42% (▼1) 7 New York Rangers (▲1) 22% (▲3) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 12% (▼9)
West Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 87% (▲10) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 81% (▼9) 3 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 65% (▼14) 4 Minnesota Wild 51% (▲9) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲2) 40% (▲18) 6 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 34% (▼6) 7 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 29% (▲12) 8 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 12% (▼20)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 98% (▲3) 2 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 83% (▲13) 3 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 81% (▲14) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 75% (▼5) 5 Calgary Flames 42% (▼22) 6 Vancouver Canucks 18% (▼3) 7 Ottawa Senators 3%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 23% (▲10) 2 Boston Bruins 14% (▼2) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 13% (▲7) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 11% (▼12) 5 Colorado Avalanche (▲2) 9% (▲5) 6 Florida Panthers (▲1) 7% (▲3) 7 Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 5% (▼7) 8 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 3% (▼2) 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 2% (▲1) 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 2% (▼1) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 2% (▲1) 12 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 1% 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1% 12 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1% 12 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1% 12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% 12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5) 1% (▼3) 12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 10% (▲2) 2 (tie) Boston Bruins 9% 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 9% (▲3) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 8% (▼3) 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲3) 6% (▲2) 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 6% (▼2) 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 4% 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4) 4% (▼2) 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 4% (▲1) 13 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 3% 13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 3% 16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 2% 16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 2% (▼1) 16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲6) 2% (▲1) 16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 2% 16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 2% 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 2% 22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼10) 1% (▼2) 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1% 22 (tie) New York Rangers 1% 22 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7) 1% (▲1) 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 1% 28 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼6) <1% (▼1) 28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼6) <1% (▼1) 28 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 28 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1%