I’ve been calculating the “McDonald Power Ratings” in both the CFL and NHL for the last three years, mostly just for myself and my son, but last year, I started posting the NHL ones to my blog. Unfortunately, the season shut down early, so I stopped doing them, and after the long COVID lay-off, I didn’t think they would be very accurate for last year’s playoffs. But, I’ve started them again this year, and here’s the first posting for the year! I’ll be posting the new ratings every Monday.
As more games are being played, the calibration of our internal models is beginning to settle down, so we’re starting to see less big jumps in ratings. Boston, Tampa Bay, and Philadelphia continue to be the top three teams, although Colorado (3-0-1 this week) and St. Louis (3-0-0) both made big moves to round out the top five.
Other big movers this week included Washington (3-0-0, +11 rating points) and Toronto (2-0-1, +16 rating points), although the biggest mover was Vancouver (4-0-0, +27 rating points).
We’re currently predicting that Boston, Colorado, and Tampa Bay have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup (7% chance for each), and Tampa Bay has the best chance of winning the President’s Trophy (10%).
At the bottom end of the scale, Ottawa (ranked 2nd last) and Detroit (ranked last) have less than a 1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Ottawa had the biggest downward move, going 0-4-0 in the last week and dropping a whopping 23 rating points.
In the following rankings, the change indicated is the amount of change from the previous week.
The Top 5
1 (tie). Boston Bruins (1550, ▲5)
Record: 5-1-2, 3rd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 77% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- January 26: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
- January 28: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1495)
- January 30: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
Next week:
- February 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
- February 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
- February 5: @ Philadelphia Flyers (3rd, 1546)
- February 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1461)
1 (tie). Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1550, ▲6)
Record: 4-1-1, 5th in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 78% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 1-0-1
- January 28: Lost in OT 1-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (9th, 1517)
- January 30: Won 4-3 vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
Next week:
- February 1: vs. Nashville Predators (22th, 1487)
- February 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
- February 5: vs. Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1402)
3 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲4 (1546, ▲18)
Record: 6-3-1, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 77% (▲17)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- January 26: Won 7-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
- January 28: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1461)
- January 30: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
- January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
Next week:
- February 2: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
- February 4: vs. Minnesota Wild (18th, 1495)
- February 6: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
- February 7: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1544)
3 (tie). Philadelphia Flyers (1546, ▲11)
Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79% (▲17)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 26: Won 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
- January 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (16th, 1497)
- January 30: Won in OT 3-2 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
- January 31: Won in OT 4-3 vs. New York Islanders (16th, 1497)
Next week:
- February 3: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
- February 5: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1550)
- February 7: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1540)
5. St. Louis Blues (1544, ▲15)
Record: 6-2-1, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79% (▲16)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 26: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533)
- January 28: Game @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1533) postponed
- January 30: Won 6-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
- January 31: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1467)
Next week:
- February 2: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
- February 4: vs. Arizona Coyotes (23th, 1486)
- February 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
- February 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1546)
Overall Ratings
1 (tie) Boston Bruins 1550 (▲5) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1550 (▲6) 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 1546 (▲18) 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 1546 (▲11) 5 St. Louis Blues 1544 (▲15) 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1540 (▲11) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 1534 (▲16) 8 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1533 (▼1) 9 Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 1517 (▲6) 10 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1515 (▼4) 11 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1514 (▲7) 12 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1510 (▼2) 13 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1506 (▼3) 14 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1502 (▼5) 15 Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1501 (▼2) 16 (tie) New York Islanders 1497 (▼8) 16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1497 (▼7) 18 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 1495 (▼11) 18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1495 (▼3) 20 Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 1494 (▼10) 21 Vancouver Canucks (▲7) 1493 (▲27) 22 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1487 (▼8) 23 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1486 (▼2) 24 Los Angeles Kings 1483 (▲3) 25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1479 (▲2) 25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2) 1479 (▼7) 27 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1467 (▼12) 28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1461 (▼2) 28 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1461 (▼10) 30 Ottawa Senators 1425 (▼23) 31 Detroit Red Wings 1402 (▼7)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 29% (▲1) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 21% (▲5) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 19% (▲5) 4 Dallas Stars (▼2) 15% (▼5) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 8% (▼2) 6 Nashville Predators 5% (▼2) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 3% (▼1) 8 Detroit Red Wings <1% (▼1)
East Division
1 Washington Capitals (▲1) 27% (▲7) 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 26% (▲2) 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 26% (▲9) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 7% (▼3) 5 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 6% (▼6) 6 New York Islanders (▼1) 4% (▼7) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 2% (▼1) 7 (tie) New York Rangers 2% (▼2)
West Division
1 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 28% (▲10) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 26% (▼4) 3 Colorado Avalanche 25% (▲10) 4 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 8% (▼7) 5 Los Angeles Kings 5% (▼1) 6 Arizona Coyotes (▲1) 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 2% (▼4) 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks 2% (▼3)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 36% (▲12) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 23% (▼4) 3 Winnipeg Jets 14% (▼3) 4 Calgary Flames (▼1) 11% (▼6) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 9% (▲6) 6 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 6% (▼4) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼1) <1% (▼3)
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 78% (▲2) 2 Florida Panthers (▲1) 70% (▲10) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 69% (▲10) 4 Dallas Stars (▼2) 63% (▼3) 5 Columbus Blue Jackets 50% (▼4) 6 Nashville Predators 37% (▼6) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 29% (▼5) 8 Detroit Red Wings 4% (▼5)
East Division
1 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 79% (▲17) 2 Washington Capitals 78% (▲13) 3 Boston Bruins (▼2) 77% (▲6) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 45% (▼3) 5 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 41% (▼12) 6 New York Islanders (▼1) 35% (▼14) 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 22% (▼1) 7 (tie) New York Rangers 22% (▼6)
West Division
1 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 79% (▲16) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 77% (▲17) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 75% (▼1) 4 Minnesota Wild 50% (▼7) 5 Los Angeles Kings 38% (▲1) 6 Arizona Coyotes 34% (▼2) 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 23% (▼13) 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 23% (▼11)
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 86% (▲10) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 77% (▼1) 3 Winnipeg Jets 65% (▼2) 4 Calgary Flames 59% (▼7) 5 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 55% (▲25) 6 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 48% (▼7) 7 Ottawa Senators 9% (▼18)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 10% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 9% (▲3) 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5) 9% (▲4) 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1) 8% (▲1) 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5) 8% (▲4) 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5) 8% (▲4) 7 (tie) Florida Panthers 7% (▲2) 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5) 7% (▼2) 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 6% (▲2) 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5) 6% (▲3) 11 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼6) 5% (▼1) 11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼8) 5% (▼2) 13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4) 2% (▼2) 13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 2% (▼2) 16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 1% 16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4) 1% 16 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1% (▼2) 16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4) 1% 16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1% (▼2) 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 7% (▲1) 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 7% (▲2) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 7% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 6% (▲1) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals 6% (▲1) 8 Vegas Golden Knights (▼6) 5% (▼1) 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 4% 9 (tie) Dallas Stars 4% 9 (tie) Florida Panthers 4% 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 4% 13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 3% 13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲14) 3% (▲2) 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 3% (▼1) 17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4) 2% 17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4) 2% 17 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲4) 2% 17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 2% (▼1) 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼4) 1% (▼1) 25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1% 25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4) 1% (▼1) 25 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4) 1% (▼1) 25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1% 30 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 30 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3) <1% (▼1)