Another overtime playoff game!  Boston and Washington went to overtime again, as they have in all 3 games of their series!  This time, it went into double overtime, with Boston winning it after a miscommunication between Washington goalie Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Justin Schultz gave the Bruins’ Craig Smith an easy goal.  Boston leads that series 2-1, and are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win the series with a 68.5% chance.

In the second game of the night, Carolina defeated Nashville 3-0.  The game was much closer than the score indicated, as Carolina moved ahead 2-0 with a last minute empty-net goal, then scored again before time was out.  Nashville faces a tough battle heading home, as we’re now giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.

There was yet another game that was much closer than the score showed, with Winnipeg beating Edmonton 4-1.  Edmonton was down 2-1 with a couple minutes left, and were putting huge pressure on Winnipeg, but after they pulled their goalie, Winnipeg scored a couple empty netters.  That was the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Winnipeg a 54.7% chance of winning the series.

In the night’s final game, Colorado defeated St. Louis 6-3.  Although Colorado dominated, the score was 4-3 when St. Louis pulled their goalie, and Colorado quickly scored a couple empty netters to put the game away.  Nathan MacKinnon got a hat trick in the Colorado victory.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives top-ranked Colorado a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

There are four games on the slate again tonight.  First up, Florida visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 and needing a road victory to keep themselves competitive.  Pittsburgh is in New York to face the Islanders.  That series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a slight edge in the series.  The highlight of the night will be Montreal visiting Toronto for the first game of their series.  It will be a tough series for Montreal, but their winning tradition and Toronto’s non-winning tradition will make it interesting.  Still, we’re giving Toronto a 75.3% chance of winning the series.  And in the last game, Vegas travels to Minnesota.  Their series is tied 1-1, and it’s pretty much a coin flip who’s going to win it, as we’re giving Vegas a slight 52.7% / 47.3% edge.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston now has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, up from 49.7%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning (▼18.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.5)
  • In 6 games: 12.0% (▼5.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.5% (▼0.2)
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning (▲18.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 27.3% (▲6.6)
  • In 5 games: 26.3% (▲12.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 0 at Carolina 3

• Carolina leads series 2-0
• Carolina now has a 89.2% chance of winning the series, up from 78.9%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning (▲10.3)
  • In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 31.0% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 15.1% (▼1.9)
  • In 7 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
• Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning (▼10.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.3)
  • In 6 games: 4.1% (▼4.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1

• Winnipeg leads series 1-0
• Winnipeg now has a 54.7% chance of winning, up from 33.7%

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.9)
  • In 5 games: 10.9% (▼9.9)
  • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.0)
  • In 7 games: 19.0% (▲2.9)
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
  • In 7 games: 11.7% (▲1.7)
  • In 6 games: 17.5% (▲5.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.0% (▲6.5)
  • In 4 games: 11.4% (▲7.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 93.1% chance of winning, up from 85.8%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning (▲7.3)
  • In 4 games: 38.4% (▲11.4)
  • In 5 games: 32.3% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.8% (▼2.9)
  • In 7 games: 8.6% (▼3.8)
• St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning (▼7.3)
  • In 7 games: 4.4% (▼2.0)
  • In 6 games: 2.5% (▼3.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

• Series tied 0-0
• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 32.4%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.7%
• Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
  • In 6 games: 4.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.0%
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.6%
  • In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.1%
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.2%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 27.3%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 38.4%
  • In 5 games: 32.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.8%
  • In 7 games: 8.6%
• St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.4%
  • In 6 games: 2.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 19.0%
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.5%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Well, the regular season has finally come to an end.  This week, there have been two meaningless games, both between Vancouver and Calgary, neither of which made the playoffs.  The Canucks won the first game at home, then the next day, Calgary won in Calgary.  Neither game was very exciting or interesting, but the season is done.  With the split, Calgary lost a rating point and Vancouver gained one, but neither team’s overall position in the rankings changed.

These ratings do not include any of the playoff games that have taken place before the end of the regular season.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals (1572)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes (1565)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from 3 days ago.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575
 4       Washington Capitals           1572
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1565
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1560
 7       Boston Bruins                 1557
 8       Florida Panthers              1553
 9       Minnesota Wild                1550
10       Edmonton Oilers               1548
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1539
12       New York Islanders            1523
13       St. Louis Blues               1517
14       New York Rangers              1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479
19       Calgary Flames                1476 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks             1448 (▲1)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1446
25       Los Angeles Kings             1444
26       Detroit Red Wings             1443
27       New Jersey Devils             1441
28       San Jose Sharks               1440
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           10%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           9%
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          9%
 6       Washington Capitals           8%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5%
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           2%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

 

There were 3 more close games last night, although none went to overtime.  Pittsburgh beat the Islanders 2-1 to even their series at 1 game apiece.  The series now moves to New York for the next two games, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a 59% chance of winning the series.  Tampa Bay beat Florida 3-1, but it was closer than a 2-goal game, as Tampa Bay scored their 3rd goal with 1:25 left.  The series now moves to Tampa Bay, and with a 2-0 lead in the series, we’re giving the Lightning an 84% chance of winning the series.  In the late game, Vegas beat Minnesota 3-1 behind a standout performance by Golden Knights’ goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Again, it was 1 one-goal game until Vegas scored with 53 seconds left.  That series is now even and moves to Minnesota for the next two games, and we’re giving Vegas a 53% chance of winning it.

This afternoon, the regular season finally comes to an end, with Vancouver travelling to Calgary.  They played yesterday, with Vancouver winning in a snoozer 4-2.  But, once this game is done, the North Division can start their playoffs, and tonight Winnipeg travels to Edmonton to start their series.

There are four playoff games on tap tonight.  Washington visits Boston — that series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Washington the slightest of edges with a 50.4% chance of victory!  Nashville travels to Carolina, and Nashville needs to win to even the series.  We’re currently giving Carolina a 79% chance of winning the series.  In the aforementioned North Division matchup, we’re giving Edmonton a 66% chance of winning the series.  The final game of the night sees St. Louis visiting Colorado.  Colorado, who are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings,  leads the series 1-0, and we’re giving them an 86% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, up from 44.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning (▲14.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8% (▲7.1)
  • In 6 games: 20.4% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.1% (▲2.3)
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▼14.6)
  • In 7 games: 13.2% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.6)
  • In 5 games: 10.5% (▼3.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay now has a 83.6% chance of winning the series, up from 64.9%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning (▼18.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 5.0% (▼6.7)
  • In 7 games: 11.4% (▼4.5)
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning (▲18.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.4% (▼3.5)
  • In 6 games: 18.2% (▼1.4)
  • In 5 games: 21.6% (▲4.0)
  • In 4 games: 35.4% (▲19.5)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 52.7% chance of winning the series, up from 37.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning (▲14.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.2% (▲3.3)
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning (▼14.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.5% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲0.5)
  • In 5 games: 13.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington at Boston

• Series tied 1-1
• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Carolina leads series 1-0
• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg at Edmonton

• Series tied 0-0
• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.0%
  • In 6 games: 8.5%
  • In 5 games: 3.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.0%
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.6%
  • In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.1%
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.2%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.7%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 86%, St. Louis 14%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 27.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 12.4%
• St. Louis has a 14.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.4%
  • In 6 games: 5.6%
  • In 5 games: 2.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Yet another overtime game last night!  There are clearly many closely-matched series in the first round of the playoffs this year.  Last night, it was Boston defeating Washington.  Both of their games have gone into overtime, and the series is now tied at 1.

The other two games, both featuring first-place teams against fourth-place teams, were strong victories for the top teams.  Carolina beat Nashville 5-2, putting them up 1-0 in the series, and Colorado beat St. Louis 4-1, also giving them a 1-0 series lead.

Tonight’s games all feature games where the lower-placed teams lead their series against higher-placed teams.  The Islanders play in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay plays in Florida, and Minnesota plays in Vegas.  Pittsburgh, Florida, and Vegas all need a win, otherwise they’ll be down 2-0 heading on the road for the next 2 games.

Back in the regular season, there were NO games last night.  I think this was the first time since the season began.  There are two games remaining; Calgary is in Vancouver this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon they switch stadiums and Vancouver plays in Calgary.  That will wind up the regular season, and the playoffs in the North Division will start later tomorrow night, with Winnipeg facing Edmonton.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)

• Series tied 1-1
• Washington now has a 50.4% chance of winning the series, down from 70.5%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning (▼20.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)
  • In 5 games: 13.5% (▼9.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.2% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲4.0)
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning (▲20.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▲3.0)
  • In 6 games: 20.7% (▲8.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.2% (▲8.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 2 at Carolina 5

• Carolina leads series 1-0
• Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.0%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville2  at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▲11.9)
  • In 4 games: 21.1% (▲7.6)
  • In 5 games: 26.4% (▲5.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.5)
  • In 7 games: 14.4% (▼1.7)
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▼11.9)
  • In 7 games: 9.0% (▼0.9)
  • In 6 games: 8.5% (▼3.2)
  • In 5 games: 3.7% (▼3.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.6%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲9.3)
  • In 4 games: 27.0% (▲8.4)
  • In 5 games: 29.8% (▲4.4)
  • In 6 games: 16.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 7 games: 12.4% (▼2.7)
• St. Louis has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼9.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.3% (▼1.3)
  • In 6 games: 5.6% (▼2.9)
  • In 5 games: 2.2% (▼2.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.4)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Islanders lead series 1-0
• Islanders have a 55.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Minnesota leads series 1-0
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville2  at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.0%
  • In 6 games: 8.5%
  • In 5 games: 3.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6%
  • In 5 games: 17.6%
  • In 4 games: 16.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 7 games: 18.8%
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.6%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 5 games: 14.4%
  • In 4 games: 11.7%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.7%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 4 games: 14.5%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Well, I thought it was pretty exciting when the first game of the playoffs went into overtime.  And then, yesterday, the next two games did as well!  And the final game of the day saw Tampa Bay score with 1:14 left in the game to break a tie!  This bodes well for exciting playoff hockey!!!

And, yesterday, the lower-ranked teams all won the games.  So, as a result, we’ve calculated that each of the lower-ranked teams has a better chance of winning the series than the higher-ranked teams.  But, it’s still early in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to watch how that changes.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)

• Islanders lead series 1-0
• Islanders now have a 55.2% chance of winning the series, up from 34.1%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning (▼21.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
  • In 5 games: 10.7% (▼10.0)
  • In 6 games: 15.3% (▼1.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.8% (▲2.7)
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning (▲21.1)
  • In 7 games: 11.6% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.6% (▲5.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.8)
  • In 4 games: 11.7% (▲7.3)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)

• Minnesota leads series 1-0
• Minnesota now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
  • In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.2)
  • In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.3)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲0.9)
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
  • In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
  • In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.5)
  • In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
  • In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning (▼20.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.9)
  • In 5 games: 7.5% (▼8.9)
  • In 6 games: 11.7% (▼2.5)
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning (▲20.3)
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6% (▲4.3)
  • In 5 games: 17.6% (▲6.7)
  • In 4 games: 16.0% (▲9.3)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston at Washington

• Washington leads series 1-0
• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Series tied 0-0
• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville at Carolina
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5 %
  • In 5 games: 20.9 %
  • In 6 games: 16.6 %
  • In 7 games: 16.2 %
• Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8 %
  • In 6 games: 11.6 %
  • In 5 games: 7.3 %
  • In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6%
  • In 5 games: 17.6%
  • In 4 games: 16.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 7 games: 18.8%
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.6%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 5 games: 14.4%
  • In 4 games: 11.7%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 71%, Boston 29%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston at Washington
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 23.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 15.6%
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1%
  • In 5 games: 5.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 4 games: 14.5%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Although the regular season still isn’t done, the playoffs have started already, and all the playoff teams have finished their regular season games.  There are only two games left, both between Calgary and Vancouver.  I’ll be releasing one more regular season McDonald NHL Power Ratings summary after those games are done, but will continue with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports.

The big story this week was Colorado.  They won their last three games to claim the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season.  They’re also at the top of our McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  And, they’re our favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them a 21% chance of winning it all, much higher than second-favourite Pittsburgh at 10%.  But, that’s still only a bit better than a 1-in-5 chance; there’s 16 teams in the playoffs, and anything can happen!

The last playoff spot was clinched by Montreal.  We had given them a 98% chance of making the playoffs last week, and after a less-than-stellar 0-0-2 week, they ended up being the lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs, currently ranked 21st — that could change depending on the results of those last two Calgary-Vancouver games.

There was only one change in our top 5 teams, as Washington won their only game of the week and moved up 4 spots to move into 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  That pushed Toronto out, dropping them to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 to finish their season.

The highest ranked teams that didn’t make the playoffs were the New York Rangers, who finished ranked 14th but finished well back in 5th place in the East Division, and Dallas, who finished ranked 16th and were 5th in the West Division, 4 points back of 15th-ranked Nashville.

And the worst team this year according to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings?  Buffalo, who finished with a league-worst 15-34-7 record for 37 points.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616, ▲16)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔ (▲79)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲6)

Last week: 3-0-0

• May 10: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1575)
• May 12: Won 6-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)
• May 13: Won 5-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575, ▼2)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼73)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 1-1-0

• May 10: Lost 2-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1616)
• May 12: Won 6-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1440)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1572, ▲7)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-0

• May 11: Won 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1557)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1565, ▼8)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 0-1-0

• May 10: Lost 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1506)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616 (▲16)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575 (▼2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1572 (▲7)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1565 (▼8)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1560 (▼9)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1557 (▼9)
 8       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1553 (▲7)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1550 (▼16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1548 (▼13)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1539 (▼7)
12       New York Islanders            1523 (▲2)
13       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1517 (▲16)
14       New York Rangers (▼1)         1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506 (▲8)
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494 (▲5)
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479 (▲6)
19       Calgary Flames                1477 (▲6)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469 (▲1)
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467 (▲2)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲5)        1447 (▲8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1446
25       Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1444 (▼8)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1443
27       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1441 (▼6)
28       San Jose Sharks (▼3)          1440 (▼6)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲76)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     — (▼76)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                — (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲79)

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (▲6)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     9% (▼2)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 9       Boston Bruins (▼1)            5% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

 

The playoffs have started!  Although the regular season hasn’t concluded, all of the playoff teams have finished their regular season games, with Edmonton losing 4-1 to Vancouver.  That lowered their rating, so as a result, their chances of winning their first-round series against Winnipeg and their chances of winning the Stanley Cup both dropped, and the chances of all other teams increased.  But, Colorado is still our favourite to win it all.

The first playoff game was exciting, with Washington winning it in overtime!

Yesterday’s Game

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)

• Washington leads series 1-0
• Washington now has a 70.5% chance of winning the series, up from 55.7%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston at Washington
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning (▲14.8)
  • In 4 games: 15.6% (▲6.5)
  • In 5 games: 23.0% (▲6.5)
  • In 6 games: 16.3% (▲1.9)
  • In 7 games: 15.6% (▼0.2)
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning ( ▼14.8)
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1% (▼3.1)
  • In 5 games: 5.7% (▼5.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼6.6)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Series tied 0-0
• Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Series tied 0-0
• Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Series tied 0-0
• Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5 %
  • In 5 games: 20.9 %
  • In 6 games: 16.6 %
  • In 7 games: 16.2 %
• Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8 %
  • In 6 games: 11.6 %
  • In 5 games: 7.3 %
  • In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 55%, Tampa Bay 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 8.9%
  • In 5 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.2%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 4 games: 6.7%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 66%, New York Islanders 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.8%
  • In 5 games: 20.7%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• NY Islanders has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.1%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.6%
  • In 4 games: 4.4%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 71%, Boston 29%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 23.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 15.6%
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1%
  • In 5 games: 5.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.7%
  • In 5 games: 17.5%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.0%
• Minnesota has a 41.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.5%
  • In 5 games: 10.0%
  • In 4 games: 5.9%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Edmonton: 8-2-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Although the NHL regular season hasn’t concluded yet, all the playoff teams have been determined and the first-round matchups and the first playoff game will be played today.  Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result.  Note that Edmonton in the North Division still has one game to play, so we’ll likely see some changes in those predictions, but these are our final predictions for the other three divisions.

Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 21.1% chance of winning it all, more than twice as much a chance as second-ranked Pittsburgh (9.6%).

The closest playoff matchup is Florida vs. Tampa Bay, where we’re giving Florida a 55% chance of winning it.  The most lop-sided matchup is Colorado vs. St. Louis, and we’re giving Colorado a 77% chance of winning that one.  But still, that means that St. Louis has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting the President’s Trophy winner, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility!

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5 %
  • In 5 games: 20.9 %
  • In 6 games: 16.6 %
  • In 7 games: 16.2 %
• Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8 %
  • In 6 games: 11.6 %
  • In 5 games: 7.3 %
  • In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 55%, Tampa Bay 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 9th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 8.9%
  • In 5 games: 16.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.2%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 4 games: 6.7%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 66%, New York Islanders 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.8%
  • In 5 games: 20.7%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• NY Islanders has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.1%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.6%
  • In 4 games: 4.4%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Chances of winning: Washington 56%, Boston 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.5%
  • In 6 games: 14.4%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Boston has a 44.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 4 games: 6.6%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.7%
  • In 5 games: 17.5%
  • In 6 games: 15.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.0%
• Minnesota has a 41.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
  • In 6 games: 14.5%
  • In 5 games: 10.0%
  • In 4 games: 5.9%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1559, 7th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

• Edmonton: 8-2-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 68.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 14.0%
  • In 5 games: 21.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.9%
  • In 7 games: 16.0%
• Winnipeg has a 31.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.2%
  • In 5 games: 6.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.7%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.1%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           9.1%
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           8.9%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          8.8%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Edmonton Oilers               7.4%
 8       Florida Panthers              6.3%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.2%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.0%
12       New York Islanders            2.3%
13       St. Louis Blues               1.7%
14       Nashville Predators           1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.2%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.6%

 

The playoff picture is almost all settled now, with just one spot remaining.  In the past week, Nashville, Boston, and St. Louis all nailed down the last spots in their respective divisions.  The only spot left is the fourth spot in the Northern Division.  Montreal just doesn’t seem to want to get that spot.  Although we’re giving them a 98% chance, up from 96% last week, and they only need a win or overtime loss to clinch, they’ve lost their last three games.  Their last two games of the season are against Edmonton, currently ranked 9th, so those won’t be easy.  We’re giving Calgary a 2% chance of getting the last playoff spot, who need to win both their final two games against Vancouver.  And Vancouver isn’t out of it yet; they’ve still got 7 games to play, and they have to win all of them to have a chance, so we’re giving them less than a 1% chance of doing that.

Colorado remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, still the only team at or above the 1600 rating point mark — they’re exactly 1600, down one point from last week.  Although they are in 2nd place in the West Division, we’ve got them as the favourites to win the Stanley Cup at 15%.  And, they still have a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season!

Vegas, still ranked number two, is currently leading that West Division.  They are up by 4 points in the standings, with two games remaining, although Colorado still has 3 games remaining.  We’re giving Vegas a 76% chance of winning the division, a 74% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Pittsburgh moved up a spot to be ranked 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They have clinched first place in the East Division, and have finished their regular season schedule.  Who they play in the first round of the playoffs still hasn’t been decided, as Boston and the New York Islanders are still battling it out for 3rd in the division.  Boston has 71 points with 2 games remaining, and the Islanders sit at 70 with only 1 game left.  We have calculated that Pittsburgh has a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Carolina switched spots with Pittsburgh in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  With one game remaining, they have clinched first spot in the Central Division and will face Nashville in the first round of the playoffs.  We’re giving them an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They still have a 6% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Toronto jumped 3 spots to return to the top 5.  In a week for the traditionalist, they played Montreal 3 times, winning twice and losing in overtime in the other game.  They have clinched first place in the Northern Division, the first time they’ve finished first in their division since the 1999-2000 season when they won the Northeast Division.  We’re giving them an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The season is dragging to a conclusion.  Seven teams have already finished their regular season schedule, but Vancouver still has 7 games to play!  The season is scheduled to end on May 19th, with Vancouver playing 3 games against Calgary to finish off the season!  COVID has made for an interesting schedule.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1600, ▼1)

Record: 36-13-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• May 3: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
• May 5: Lost 3-2 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
• May 7: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
• May 8: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)

Next week:

• May 10: @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1577)
• May 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
• May 13: vs. Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
• End of regular season schedule

2. Vegas Golden Knights (1577, ▼3)

Record: 39-13-2, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 73% (▲31)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%

Last week: 3-1-0

• May 3: Lost 6-5 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1566)
• May 5: Won in OT 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1566)
• May 7: Won in OT 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1501)
• May 8: Won 4-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1501)

Next week:

• May 10: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1600)
• May 12: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
• End of regular season schedule

3. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1575, ▲5)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• May 3: Lost 7-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1473)
• May 4: Won 7-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1473)
• May 6: Won 8-4 vs. Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1408)
• May 8: Won 1-0 vs. Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1408)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

4. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1573, ▼5)

Record: 36-11-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼34)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• May 3: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
• May 4: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
• May 6: Lost in OT 2-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
• May 8: Lost 3-1 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)

Next week:

•  May 10: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)
• End of regular season schedule

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1569, ▲9)

Record: 35-13-6, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-1

• May 3: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)
• May 6: Won 5-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)
• May 8: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)

Next week:

• May 12: @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1468)
• May 14: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1489)
• End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1600 (▼1)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          1577 (▼3)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1575 (▲5)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1573 (▼5)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1569 (▲9)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1566 (▼1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1566 (▼2)
 8       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1565 (▲1)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1561 (▲5)
10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         1546 (▲5)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1546 (▼12)
12       New York Islanders            1521 (▼15)
13       New York Rangers              1515 (▼9)
14       St. Louis Blues               1501 (▼1)
15       Nashville Predators           1498
16       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1495 (▼1)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1489 (▼9)
18       Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1473 (▲17)
19       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1471 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1468 (▲17)
21       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1465 (▼16)
22       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1464 (▼10)
23       Los Angeles Kings             1452 (▲6)
24       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1447 (▲1)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1446 (▲4)
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1446 (▲5)
27       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1443 (▲9)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1439 (▼5)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415 (▲6)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408 (▲2)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔ (▲13)
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         — (▼3)
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           — (▼10)

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔ (▲33)
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            — (▼7)
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       — (▼4)
 2 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           — (▼23)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          76% (▲8)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            24% (▼7)
 3 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 3 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                — (▼1)
 3 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔ (▲3)
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               — (▼3)
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      ✔ (▲17)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  — (▼17)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          ✔ (▲3)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               — (▼3)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            ✔
 4       Montreal Canadiens            98% (▲2)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼1)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)
 7       Ottawa Senators               —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          73% (▲31)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       21% (▲5)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      6% (▼34)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            15% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      11% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     11%
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           9% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               7%
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals           7%
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6%
10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4)      5% (▼2)
12       New York Islanders            2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1%
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6)            —
19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          —
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6)           —
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       —
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6)    —
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             —
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲6)        —
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        —
19 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         —
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲6)        —
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲6)          —
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲6)      —
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2)          —

 

There’s just a little over two weeks until the regular season ends, and I’m disappointed to say that the race for the playoffs is a little boring.  Right now, 10 teams have clinched spots, and another 5 teams are pretty much shoe-ins.  The only interesting race is for the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division, where we’re giving Nashville an 87% chance of making it, versus 13% for Dallas.

In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay have all clinched spots.  We expect Carolina will finish first in the division, giving them an 87% chance.  Tampa Bay could still take over first (10%), but likely not Florida (3%). Three teams remain in contention for the last playoff spot, although we’re giving Chicago less than a 1% chance of making it.

In the East Division, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Washington have all made it to the playoffs, and we’re giving Boston a greater than 99% chance of moving on, although the Rangers mathematically could still make it in.  The race for 1st place is a little more interesting, with Pittsburgh the favourites (67%), followed by Washington (23%), Washington (7%), and the Islanders (4%).

In the West Division, Colorado, Minnesota, and Vegas have clinched, and although there are 4 teams with chances of making the playoffs, we’re expecting it to be St. Louis (97%), with Arizona (3%), Los Angeles (<1%), and San Jose (<1%) having a very slim chance.  Vegas has a 68% chance of winning the division, followed by Colorado (31%) and Minnesota (1%).

In the North Division, only Toronto has clinched a playoff spot, although Edmonton (>99%), Winnipeg (also >99%), and Montreal (96%) should also make it in.  Still having a chance are Calgary (3%) and Vancouver (1%).  And Toronto has all but won the division, as we’re giving them a 97% chance of doing just that, although we’re still giving Edmonton a 3% chance.  And it is Toronto.

The race for the President’s Trophy is down to a three-way race, not that anyone really wants to win it, since the top team rarely seems to win the Stanley Cup.  But anyways, it’s close between Vegas (42%) and Carolina (40%), with Colorado (16%) not ready to be counted out yet.

Our calculated probabilities of winning the Stanley Cup have Colorado the favourites, with a 14% chance, followed by Carolina (12%), Vegas (11%), Toronto (9%), and Pittsburgh (8%).  But then again, Toronto.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1601, ▼8)

Record: 33-12-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▼25)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 26: Lost 4-1 @ St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• April 28: Lost 5-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• April 30: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 1: Won 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)

Next week:

• May 3: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 5: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 7: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)
• May 8: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)

2. Vegas Golden Knights (1580, ▼3)

Record: 36-12-2, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 42% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 28: Won 5-2 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1601)
• April 30: Lost 3-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)
• May 1: Won in OT 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)

Next week:

• May 3: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
• May 5: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
• May 7: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• May 8: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1578, ▲7)

Record: 34-10-7, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 40% (▲25)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 26: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
• April 27: Won 5-1 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
• April 29: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (28th, 1434)
• May 1: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1430)

Next week:

• May 3: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 4: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 6: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 8: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1570, ▲1)

Record: 34-15-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 27: Lost 3-1 vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1567)
• April 29: Won in OT 5-4 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)
• May 1: Won 3-0 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)

Next week:

• May 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
• May 4: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
• May 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• May 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)

5. Minnesota Wild ▼2 (1568, ▼14)

Record: 32-14-4, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)

Last week: 1-1-1

• April 28: Lost 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• April 29: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• May 1: Won in OT 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)

Next week:

• May 3: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• May 5: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• May 7: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)
• May 8: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1601 (▼8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          1580 (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1578 (▲7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1570 (▲1)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1568 (▼14)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1567 (▲17)
 7       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1564 (▼4)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1560 (▲17)
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1558 (▲16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1556 (▲11)
11       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1541 (▲7)
12       New York Islanders (▲1)       1536 (▲10)
13       New York Rangers (▼2)         1524 (▼12)
14       St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1502 (▲23)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1498 (▼2)
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1498 (▼22)
17       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1496 (▼12)
18       Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1481 (▲7)
19       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1474 (▼5)
20       Calgary Flames                1472 (▼3)
21       Philadelphia Flyers (▼4)      1456 (▼25)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲4)          1451 (▲15)
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1446 (▼3)
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲6)        1446 (▲25)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1444 (▼24)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼3)       1442 (▼12)
27       San Jose Sharks               1441 (▲7)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1434 (▼7)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1430 (▲3)
30       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1409 (▲4)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1406 (▼12)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           87% (▲12)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           10% (▼4)
 3       Florida Panthers              3% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    —
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        —
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      67% (▲32)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      23% (▼27)
 3       Boston Bruins                 7% (▼2)
 4       New York Islanders            4% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     68% (▲22)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       31% (▼17)
 3       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           97% (▲12)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               3% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           —
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       —
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          —
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 — (▼4)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 4       Nashville Predators           83% (▲26)
 5       Dallas Stars                  17% (▼22)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        —

East Division

 1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 4       Boston Bruins                >99% (▲3)
 5       New York Rangers              <1% (▼5)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 4       St. Louis Blues               97% (▲45)
 5       Arizona Coyotes               3% (▼37)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1% (▼7)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 —

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          >99%
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            >99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            96% (▲31)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲1)           3% (▼12)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼20)
 7       Ottawa Senators               —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     42% (▲3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      40% (▲25)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       16% (▼25)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      12% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     11%
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           8%
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼1)
10       Minnesota Wild (▼6)           6% (▼3)
11       Florida Panthers              4%
12       New York Islanders            3%
13       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1%
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3)             <1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼7)            —
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲4)           —
25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4)    —
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼7)        —
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        —
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼7)          —
25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7)      —