There’s just a little over two weeks until the regular season ends, and I’m disappointed to say that the race for the playoffs is a little boring. Right now, 10 teams have clinched spots, and another 5 teams are pretty much shoe-ins. The only interesting race is for the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division, where we’re giving Nashville an 87% chance of making it, versus 13% for Dallas.
In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay have all clinched spots. We expect Carolina will finish first in the division, giving them an 87% chance. Tampa Bay could still take over first (10%), but likely not Florida (3%). Three teams remain in contention for the last playoff spot, although we’re giving Chicago less than a 1% chance of making it.
In the East Division, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Washington have all made it to the playoffs, and we’re giving Boston a greater than 99% chance of moving on, although the Rangers mathematically could still make it in. The race for 1st place is a little more interesting, with Pittsburgh the favourites (67%), followed by Washington (23%), Washington (7%), and the Islanders (4%).
In the West Division, Colorado, Minnesota, and Vegas have clinched, and although there are 4 teams with chances of making the playoffs, we’re expecting it to be St. Louis (97%), with Arizona (3%), Los Angeles (<1%), and San Jose (<1%) having a very slim chance. Vegas has a 68% chance of winning the division, followed by Colorado (31%) and Minnesota (1%).
In the North Division, only Toronto has clinched a playoff spot, although Edmonton (>99%), Winnipeg (also >99%), and Montreal (96%) should also make it in. Still having a chance are Calgary (3%) and Vancouver (1%). And Toronto has all but won the division, as we’re giving them a 97% chance of doing just that, although we’re still giving Edmonton a 3% chance. And it is Toronto.
The race for the President’s Trophy is down to a three-way race, not that anyone really wants to win it, since the top team rarely seems to win the Stanley Cup. But anyways, it’s close between Vegas (42%) and Carolina (40%), with Colorado (16%) not ready to be counted out yet.
Our calculated probabilities of winning the Stanley Cup have Colorado the favourites, with a 14% chance, followed by Carolina (12%), Vegas (11%), Toronto (9%), and Pittsburgh (8%). But then again, Toronto.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1601, ▼8)
Record: 33-12-4, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▼25)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼3)
Last week: 2-2-0
- April 26: Lost 4-1 @ St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
- April 28: Lost 5-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
- April 30: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
- May 1: Won 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
Next week:
- May 3: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
- May 5: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
- May 7: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)
- May 8: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)
2. Vegas Golden Knights (1580, ▼3)
Record: 36-12-2, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 42% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%
Last week: 2-1-0
- April 28: Won 5-2 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1601)
- April 30: Lost 3-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)
- May 1: Won in OT 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)
Next week:
- May 3: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
- May 5: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
- May 7: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
- May 8: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1578, ▲7)
Record: 34-10-7, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 40% (▲25)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-1
- April 26: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
- April 27: Won 5-1 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
- April 29: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (28th, 1434)
- May 1: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1430)
Next week:
- May 3: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
- May 4: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
- May 6: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
- May 8: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)
4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1570, ▲1)
Record: 34-15-3, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%
Last week: 2-1-0
- April 27: Lost 3-1 vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1567)
- April 29: Won in OT 5-4 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)
- May 1: Won 3-0 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)
Next week:
- May 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
- May 4: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
- May 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
- May 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
5. Minnesota Wild ▼2 (1568, ▼14)
Record: 32-14-4, 3rd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)
Last week: 1-1-1
- April 28: Lost 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
- April 29: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
- May 1: Won in OT 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
Next week:
- May 3: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
- May 5: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
- May 7: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)
- May 8: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1601 (▼8) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 1580 (▼3) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1578 (▲7) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1570 (▲1) 5 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 1568 (▼14) 6 Boston Bruins (▲1) 1567 (▲17) 7 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1564 (▼4) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1560 (▲17) 9 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1558 (▲16) 10 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 1556 (▲11) 11 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1541 (▲7) 12 New York Islanders (▲1) 1536 (▲10) 13 New York Rangers (▼2) 1524 (▼12) 14 St. Louis Blues (▲4) 1502 (▲23) 15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1498 (▼2) 15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1498 (▼22) 17 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1496 (▼12) 18 Montreal Canadiens (▲3) 1481 (▲7) 19 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1474 (▼5) 20 Calgary Flames 1472 (▼3) 21 Philadelphia Flyers (▼4) 1456 (▼25) 22 Ottawa Senators (▲4) 1451 (▲15) 23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1446 (▼3) 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲6) 1446 (▲25) 25 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 1444 (▼24) 26 Chicago Blackhawks (▼3) 1442 (▼12) 27 San Jose Sharks 1441 (▲7) 28 Detroit Red Wings (▼3) 1434 (▼7) 29 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1430 (▲3) 30 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1409 (▲4) 31 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1406 (▼12)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 87% (▲12) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 10% (▼4) 3 Florida Panthers 3% (▼7) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) — 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) — 4 (tie) Dallas Stars — 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) — 4 (tie) Nashville Predators —
East Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 67% (▲32) 2 Washington Capitals (▼1) 23% (▼27) 3 Boston Bruins 7% (▼2) 4 New York Islanders 4% (▼2) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) — 5 (tie) New York Rangers — 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers —
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 68% (▲22) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 31% (▼17) 3 Minnesota Wild 1% (▼5) 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks — 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes — 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings — 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks — 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues —
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 97% (▲12) 2 Edmonton Oilers 3% (▼8) 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) — 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) — 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3) — 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) — 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets — (▼4)
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✔ 1 (tie) Florida Panthers ✔ 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning ✔ 4 Nashville Predators 83% (▲26) 5 Dallas Stars 17% (▼22) 6 Chicago Blackhawks <1% (▼5) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) — 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) —
East Division
1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) ✔ (▲2) 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins ✔ 1 (tie) Washington Capitals ✔ 4 Boston Bruins >99% (▲3) 5 New York Rangers <1% (▼5) 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) — 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) — 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) —
West Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✔ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild ✔ 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights ✔ 4 St. Louis Blues 97% (▲45) 5 Arizona Coyotes 3% (▼37) 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings <1% (▼7) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% (▼1) 8 Anaheim Ducks —
North Division
1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs ✔ 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) >99% 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) >99% 4 Montreal Canadiens 96% (▲31) 5 Calgary Flames (▲1) 3% (▼12) 6 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1% (▼20) 7 Ottawa Senators —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 42% (▲3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 40% (▲25) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 16% (▼25) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1% 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 14% (▼3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 12% (▲2) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 11% 4 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 9% (▲3) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 8% 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 7% (▲1) 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3) 7% (▲2) 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 7% (▼1) 10 Minnesota Wild (▼6) 6% (▼3) 11 Florida Panthers 4% 12 New York Islanders 3% 13 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 1% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues 1% 17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3) <1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼7) — 25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲4) — 25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4) — 25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼7) — 25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4) — 25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼7) — 25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7) —