The playoff picture is almost all settled now, with just one spot remaining. In the past week, Nashville, Boston, and St. Louis all nailed down the last spots in their respective divisions. The only spot left is the fourth spot in the Northern Division. Montreal just doesn’t seem to want to get that spot. Although we’re giving them a 98% chance, up from 96% last week, and they only need a win or overtime loss to clinch, they’ve lost their last three games. Their last two games of the season are against Edmonton, currently ranked 9th, so those won’t be easy. We’re giving Calgary a 2% chance of getting the last playoff spot, who need to win both their final two games against Vancouver. And Vancouver isn’t out of it yet; they’ve still got 7 games to play, and they have to win all of them to have a chance, so we’re giving them less than a 1% chance of doing that.
Colorado remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, still the only team at or above the 1600 rating point mark — they’re exactly 1600, down one point from last week. Although they are in 2nd place in the West Division, we’ve got them as the favourites to win the Stanley Cup at 15%. And, they still have a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season!
Vegas, still ranked number two, is currently leading that West Division. They are up by 4 points in the standings, with two games remaining, although Colorado still has 3 games remaining. We’re giving Vegas a 76% chance of winning the division, a 74% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Pittsburgh moved up a spot to be ranked 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They have clinched first place in the East Division, and have finished their regular season schedule. Who they play in the first round of the playoffs still hasn’t been decided, as Boston and the New York Islanders are still battling it out for 3rd in the division. Boston has 71 points with 2 games remaining, and the Islanders sit at 70 with only 1 game left. We have calculated that Pittsburgh has a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Carolina switched spots with Pittsburgh in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. With one game remaining, they have clinched first spot in the Central Division and will face Nashville in the first round of the playoffs. We’re giving them an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They still have a 6% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Toronto jumped 3 spots to return to the top 5. In a week for the traditionalist, they played Montreal 3 times, winning twice and losing in overtime in the other game. They have clinched first place in the Northern Division, the first time they’ve finished first in their division since the 1999-2000 season when they won the Northeast Division. We’re giving them an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The season is dragging to a conclusion. Seven teams have already finished their regular season schedule, but Vancouver still has 7 games to play! The season is scheduled to end on May 19th, with Vancouver playing 3 games against Calgary to finish off the season! COVID has made for an interesting schedule.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1600, ▼1)
Record: 36-13-4, 2nd in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- May 3: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
- May 5: Lost 3-2 @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
- May 7: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
- May 8: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
Next week:
- May 10: @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1577)
- May 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
- May 13: vs. Los Angeles Kings (23rd, 1452)
- End of regular season schedule
2. Vegas Golden Knights (1577, ▼3)
Record: 39-13-2, 1st in West Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 73% (▲31)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%
Last week: 3-1-0
- May 3: Lost 6-5 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1566)
- May 5: Won in OT 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1566)
- May 7: Won in OT 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1501)
- May 8: Won 4-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1501)
Next week:
- May 10: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1600)
- May 12: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1446)
- End of regular season schedule
3. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1575, ▲5)
Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: —
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- May 3: Lost 7-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1473)
- May 4: Won 7-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1473)
- May 6: Won 8-4 vs. Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1408)
- May 8: Won 1-0 vs. Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1408)
Next week:
- End of regular season schedule
4. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1573, ▼5)
Record: 36-11-8, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼34)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- May 3: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
- May 4: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
- May 6: Lost in OT 2-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1446)
- May 8: Lost 3-1 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)
Next week:
- May 10: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)
- End of regular season schedule
5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲3 (1569, ▲9)
Record: 35-13-6, 1st in North Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: ✔
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-1
- May 3: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)
- May 6: Won 5-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)
- May 8: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1465)
Next week:
- May 12: @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1468)
- May 14: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1489)
- End of regular season schedule
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1600 (▼1) 2 Vegas Golden Knights 1577 (▼3) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1575 (▲5) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1573 (▼5) 5 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 1569 (▲9) 6 (tie) Boston Bruins 1566 (▼1) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1566 (▼2) 8 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1565 (▲1) 9 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1561 (▲5) 10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 1546 (▲5) 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1546 (▼12) 12 New York Islanders 1521 (▼15) 13 New York Rangers 1515 (▼9) 14 St. Louis Blues 1501 (▼1) 15 Nashville Predators 1498 16 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1495 (▼1) 17 Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 1489 (▼9) 18 Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) 1473 (▲17) 19 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1471 (▼1) 20 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1468 (▲17) 21 Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 1465 (▼16) 22 Arizona Coyotes (▼3) 1464 (▼10) 23 Los Angeles Kings 1452 (▲6) 24 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1447 (▲1) 25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1446 (▲4) 25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1446 (▲5) 27 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1443 (▲9) 28 Vancouver Canucks (▼3) 1439 (▼5) 29 Columbus Blue Jackets 1430 30 Anaheim Ducks 1415 (▲6) 31 Buffalo Sabres 1408 (▲2)
Chances of Winning Division
Central Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes ✔ (▲13) 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) — 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) — 2 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2) — 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) — 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) — (▼3) 2 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) — 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning — (▼10)
East Division
1 Pittsburgh Penguins ✔ (▲33) 2 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) — (▼7) 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3) — 2 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2) — (▼4) 2 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) — 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) — 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) — 2 (tie) Washington Capitals — (▼23)
West Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 76% (▲8) 2 Colorado Avalanche 24% (▼7) 3 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) — 3 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) — 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) — 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild — (▼1) 3 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) — 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) —
North Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs ✔ (▲3) 2 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) — 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers — (▼3) 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) — 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) — 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) — 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) —
Making the Playoffs
Central Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes ✔ 1 (tie) Florida Panthers ✔ 1 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3) ✔ (▲17) 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning ✔ 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) — 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) — 5 (tie) Dallas Stars — (▼17) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) —
East Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins ✔ 1 (tie) New York Islanders ✔ 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins ✔ 1 (tie) Washington Capitals ✔ 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres — 5 (tie) New York Rangers — 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils — 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers —
West Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche ✔ 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild ✔ 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) ✔ (▲3) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights ✔ 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) — 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes — (▼3) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) — 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) —
North Division
1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) ✔ 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs ✔ 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) ✔ 4 Montreal Canadiens 98% (▲2) 5 Calgary Flames 2% (▼1) 6 Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1) 7 Ottawa Senators —
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Vegas Golden Knights 73% (▲31) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 21% (▲5) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 6% (▼34)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 15% (▲1) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 11% (▼1) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 11% (▲2) 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 11% 5 Pittsburgh Penguins 9% (▲1) 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 7% 6 (tie) Washington Capitals 7% 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2) 6% (▼1) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 6% 10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 5% (▲1) 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4) 5% (▼2) 12 New York Islanders 2% (▼1) 13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 1% 13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% 13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1% 13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1% (▼1) 17 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6) — 19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2) — 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6) — 19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) — 19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6) — 19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) — 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲6) — 19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2) — 19 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2) — 19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲6) — 19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲6) — 19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲6) — 19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2) —