There was just one game tonight in the NHL playoffs: Game 7 of the Vegas / Minnesota series.  Vegas won the game, 6-2, behind Mattias Janmark’s hat trick, one of which was an empty-netter.  The game was tied 2-2 in the 2nd period, but Vegas pulled away with 2 more goals in the 2nd and 2 more in the 3rd to finish off the series.  Vegas will play McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked Colorado in the West Division final.

There are two games tomorrow night.  In the first game, Toronto travels to Montreal with a 3-2 series lead.  Montreal hopes that having a home crowd helps them, as this is the first North Division game to allow fans in the stands.  We’re giving Toronto a 57.0% chance of winning tomorrow, and an 85.0% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the night, the 2nd round of the playoffs open, with Boston hosting the New York Islanders in the first game of the East Division Final.  We’re favouring Boston in this series, as the gang at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has calculated that they’ve got a 62.3% chance of winning the series.

We haven’t yet published the current team rankings, nor the team chances of winning the Stanley Cup, as we’re waiting for the first round of the playoffs to finish before doing that.  But, we’ve updated our report to include the Playoff Matchups for the Division Finals.  Enjoy!

Yesterday’s Games

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

• Vegas wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

• Toronto leads series 3-2
• Toronto has an 85.0% chance of winning the series

East Division Final

New York Islanders at Boston

• Series tied 0-0
• Boston has a 62.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 85%, Montreal 15%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 57.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.0%
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.9%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Boston 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 62.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.2%
  • In 5 games: 19.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 37.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 13.2%
  • In 5 games: 8.7%
  • In 4 games: 5.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 67%, Vegas 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 21.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Vegas has a 32.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.6%
  • In 5 games: 7.2%
  • In 4 games: 4.1%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. TBD

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.  They will be recalculated once the first round is completed.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%