Week 7 of the CFL regular season saw Winnipeg expand its dominance, Ottawa expand its ineptitude, and Saskatchewan dropping like a rock.

On Thursday night, 1-4 Montreal travelled to Ottawa to face the winless RedBlacks.  In a topsy-turvy game, Montreal beat Ottawa 40-33.  Ottawa led 8-0 after the first quarter, Montreal led 18-14 at the half, Ottawa led after 3 quarters 26-25, but Montreal took the lead with 15 4th quarter points and took the victory when Ottawa dropped a pass in the endzone on their final drive.  Quarterback Trevor Harris led Montreal, completing 25 of 31 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Dominique Davis scored three touchdowns on the ground.

In the second game of the Thursday night doubleheader, struggling Hamilton visited up-and-coming British Columbia.  In a low scoring game, BC defeated Hamilton 17-12.  BC QB Nathan Rourke completed 22 of 30 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Lucky Whitehead caught 8 of those passes for 111 yards and a touchdown.  Neither team scored in the fourth quarter.

Friday night’s game saw undefeated Winnipeg face last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In an unsurprising result, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 24-10.  However, Edmonton quarterback Taylor Cornelius was the outstanding QB, completing 25 of his 42 passes for 270 yards but one interception, while Winnipeg QB, possibly the best quarterback in the CFL this year, only went 7 for 16 for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.  Cornelius’ game wasn’t helped by the fact that he was sacked five times.  Winnipeg receiver Dalton Schoen led all receivers with 146 receiving yards on just four receptions, one of which was an 81 yard touchdown.

The final game of the weekend was on Sunday, pushed back a day because 10 Rider players tested positive for COVID, including starting quarterback Cody Fajardo and backup QB Mason Fine.  As a result, third-stringer Jacob Dolegala got the call.  Although the Riders hoped to avenge last week’s loss to the Argos, it was not to be, as Toronto defeated Saskatchewan 31-21.  Toronto running back Andrew Harris rushed for 143 yards, giving him over 10,000 yards for his career, and quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 30 for 38 for 336 yards and two touchdowns.  Argo receiver Kurleigh Gittens Jr. caught 8 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown.  In his debut, Rider QB Dolegala was disappointing, going 13 for 28 for 131 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.  He did show signs of brilliance at times, but not enough.  The Rider highlight of the game was a missed 61 yard field goal attempt by the Argos, which Mario Alford returned 112 yards for a touchdown!

Week 7 Results

Montreal 40  at Ottawa 33
Hamilton 12  at British Columbia 17
Winnipeg 24  at Edmonton 10
Toronto 31  at Saskatchewan 21

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  Winnipeg continues to sit at the top with a league-best 7-0 record, and the top rating of 1618.  Calgary is next, far back with 1556 rating points, with Saskatchewan still in third, but at 1526, a drop of 28 points from two weeks ago.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team, fourth ranked overall, just 2 rating points behind Saskatchewan.  With Montreal’s win over Ottawa and Hamilton’s loss to BC, Montreal and Hamilton swapped 6th and 7th places in our rankings.  Ottawa’s rating has dropped to 1392, making them by far the lowest ranked team (Edmonton is 8th at 1447), and they now sit 8 points below the “stink line.”

Grey Cup Predictions

Undefeated Winnipeg remains the team to beat, with the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team giving them a 35% chance of winning the Grey Cup, up 3 percentage points from last week.  Toronto has the second best chance of winning, with a 19% chance.  Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 8 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (44%) at Hamilton (55%)
Friday: British Columbia (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (51%) at Calgary (48%)
Sunday: Ottawa (26%) at Toronto (73%)

In a rare weekend of football, two Eastern Division teams won games, giving them 4 in the first 6 weeks of the season.

In the Thursday Night Football game, Edmonton surprised Montreal 32-31.  Montreal led 31-12 late in the 3rd quarter, but three pass interference calls against Montreal defensive back Wesley Sutton turned the tide, and Edmonton came away with the win.  The first pass interference call against Sutton came in the endzone, resulting in a 20 yard penalty and Edmonton ended up with a touchdown but no convert.  The second was a 38 yard penalty, again leading up to an Elks touchdown, this time with the convert.  The third penalty was for 50 yards, once again leading to an Edmonton TD.  So, one player, 108 yards in penalties, resulting in 20 points!  That third one gave Edmonton the 32-31 lead, and they held it for the victory.

Friday night’s game was a battle of the two top-ranked McDonald CFL Power Ratings teams, as undefeated Calgary headed to Winnipeg to face the undefeated defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Calgary 26-19.  In the final minute, trailing 26-19, Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell passed to receiver Kamar Jorden in the end zone.  Jorden appeared to make an incredible catch, but as he hit the ground, the ball bounced out of his hands and Winnipeg DB Demerio Houston made a shoestring interception to shut down Calgary’s final drive.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros completed 27 of his 38 passes for 315 yards, with Greg Ellingson catching 11 of those passes for 152 yards.  For the Stampeders, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 110 yards on only 12 carries.

There were two games on Saturday, with the first being Touchdown Atlantic, with Saskatchewan and Toronto facing each other in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, home of the Acadia University Axemen.  In an upset, Toronto beat Saskatchewan 30-24.  With the Riders leading 24-22 and trying to move the ball downfield to run out the clock, quarterback Cody Fajardo threw an interception that Argo linebacker Wynton McManis ran back for a 49 yard pick-six.  Toronto followed it up with a two point convert to lead 30-24, and as Saskatchewan was making their final drive, Fajardo threw another interception and the Argonauts came away with the victory.

The last game of the weekend saw the Ottawa RedBlacks visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a battle of two 0-4 teams, tied for the last playoff spot in the East.  Yes, really.  In a game that I had absolutely no interest in watching, Hamilton defeated Ottawa 25-23.  Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns, one of which gave the Ti-Cats the lead with 34 seconds left.  Ottawa had a final chance to win it with a 54 yard field goal as time ran out, but the kick came up short and Hamilton had their first victory of the season.

Week 6 Results

Edmonton 32  at Montreal 31
Calgary 19  at Winnipeg 26
Saskatchewan 24  at Toronto 30
Ottawa 23  at Hamilton 25

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much changes in our power rankings.  Winnipeg, Calgary, and Saskatchewan remain at the top of the rankings.  With Toronto’s surprising win over Saskatchewan, the Argos swapped places with British Columbia, with the Lions dropping to 5th.  Hamilton’s win over Ottawa combined with Montreal’s unexpected loss to Edmonton resulted Hamilton and Montreal swapping places as well, with Hamilton now ranked 6th and Montreal 7th.  Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of our rankins with their 0-5 record.

Grey Cup Predictions

We made some tweaks to our mathematical model, and that resulted in larger than expected changes in Grey Cup winning probabilities.  Winnipeg remains the favourite with a 32% chance of winning, twice the probability of 2nd most-likely Toronto.  It must be nice to be an Eastern team, as your chances of making the Grey Cup are pretty good!  Calgary is 3rd most likely at 15%, followed by Saskatchewan at 13%.  Least likely to win remains Edmonton, now tied with Ottawa for last place with a 2% win probability.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 7 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (51%) at Ottawa (48%)
Thursday: Hamilton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Toronto (38%) at Saskatchewan (61%)

It was a quieter week in the CFL last week, as there were only three games played.  All five Western teams played, but only Ottawa played from the East.

Thursday night’s game featured the Battle of Alberta, as Calgary travelled north to visit Edmonton.  Being ever the gracious hosts, Edmonton was soundly defeated by Calgary, 49-6.  Calgary is now 4-0, while Edmonton falls to 1-4.  The game was interrupted by a huge rainstorm, but that didn’t slow Calgary down.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Calgary quarterback, completed 17 of 22 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Malik Henry caught 6 passes for 150 yards, one of those being an 89 yard touchdown.  On the ground, running back Ka’Deem Carey gained 104 yards on 12 carries, and on defense, Calgary had two interceptions, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a 63 yard touchdown.  Edmonton went through three quarterbacks, with two of them leaving the game due to injury.

Friday Night Football saw Ottawa heading to Regina to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  Saskatchewan defeated Ottawa 28-13, but the game was marred by an injury to Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the game after a low hit by Rider lineman Garrett Marino.  Although the hit didn’t seem intentional, Marino made it worse by celebrating the hit over top of the injured Masoli, then uttered a racial epithet directed at the RedBlack quarterback.  Masoli required surgery and is expected to miss 12 weeks, while Marino was suspended for a CFL-record 4 games.  To this commentator, the punishment doesn’t seem sufficient to fit the crime; more appropriate would be a season-long suspension.

Saturday saw the final game of the week, with top-ranked Winnipeg heading to British Columbia to face the up-and-coming Lions.  Although it was expected to be a test for the Bombers, it wasn’t, as Winnipeg won 43-22 over BC.  Bomber QB Zach Collaros went 23 for 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Dalton Schoen catching 8 of those for 117 yards and two touchdowns.  On defense, Winnipeg made three interceptions, one fumble recovery, and one sack, and on special teams, Janarion Grant returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.  On the BC side, quarterback Nathan Rourke passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions.

The big game coming up this weekend is the Touchdown Atlantic game, with Saskatchewan and Toronto travelling to Wolfville, Nova Scotia, to play the first CFL game ever in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Results

Calgary 49  at Edmonton 6
Ottawa 13  at Saskatchewan 28
Winnipeg 43  at British Columbia 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There were no changes to the rankings this week, although Toronto, being idle, closed the gap on BC following the Lions’ loss to Winnipeg.  Sadly, only three teams are rated above the 1500 average ranking, and all three of those teams are in the West.  The league seems quite unbalanced, with the top 4 teams all coming from the West, and all Eastern teams being ranked below average.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the Grey Cup favourite, now with a 33% chance of winning the Cup, up 4% from last week.  Calgary follows with a 19% chance.  British Columbia were the only team to change in their chances, dropping 5 percentage points down to 3%, a result of playing in that tough Western Division.  Montreal has the most chance of winning it from the East, with an 11% probability.

Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 6 Game Predictions

Thursday: Edmonton (37%) at Montreal (62%)
Friday: Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (57%) at Toronto (42%)
Saturday: Ottawa (35%) at Hamilton (64%)

Yet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results.  The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend.  And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).

The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital.  It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31.  BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble.  He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score!  The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns.  Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.

Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off.  In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25.  Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game.  Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game.  Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.

Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan.  Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20.  Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in.  But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown.  But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!

And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22.  As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory.  The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.

Week 4 Results

British Columbia 34  at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29  at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20  at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23  at Toronto 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings.  The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team.  All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all.  That’s up 4% points from last week.  They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions.  The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend!  It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 5 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)

It’s only been Week 3, but it looks like the McDonald CFL Power Ratings are getting pretty accurate, working out the uncertainty that we introduce before the season starts.  As we’ve said a number of times, after about 4 games, we feel that the ratings are quite accurate, but they are looking pretty good already.

Week 3 started off with Saskatchewan heading off to Montreal to face the Alouettes.  This game was all Montreal, as they scored a touchdown on the opening kickoff return, and never looked back, as they came away with a 37-13 victory.  The star of the game was the Montreal defense, as they had three interceptions, a touchdown and eight (eight!!!) sacks.  Saskatchewan replaced their quarterback Cody Fajardo with his backup Mason Fine in the fourth quarter.  Montreal kicker David Côté was 5-for-5 on his field goal attempts.

On Friday, Hamilton visited the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  Winnipeg remain undefeated with a 3-0 record after winning the game 26-12.  Bomber quarterback Zach Collaros completed 21 of his 32 passes for 302 yards, and receiver Nic Demski caught 6 of those passes for 96 yards before leaving the game early in the third quarter with an injury.  The win was Winnipeg’s 11th straight home win.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the first, it was the battle of Alberta, as the undefeated Calgary Stampeders hosted the winless Edmonton Elks.  In a surprisingly close game, Calgary beat Edmonton 30-23.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Stampeder quarterback, led the offense passing 21-for-28 for 321 yards, and running back Ka’Deem Carey ran for 91 yards.

In the final game of the weekend, British Columbia were ungracious hosts to the Toronto Argonauts, thumping them 44-3.  Quarterback Nathan Rourke had a historic game, passing for 436 yards, the most ever by a Canadian quarterback in a single game.  He completed 39 of his 45 pass attempts to seven different receivers, with Dominque Rhymes catching eight of those for 143 yards and two touchdowns.  Aside from the impressive passing display, running back David Mackie carried the ball 16 times for 90 yards.

Week 3 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Montreal 37
Hamilton 12  at Winnipeg 26
Edmonton 23  at Calgary 30Toronto 3  at British Columbia 44

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, but Calgary and Saskatchewan swapped places after Saskatchewan lost their first game of the year and Calgary remains undefeated.  Toronto is the top-ranked team from the East, currently in fourth, and are the only Eastern team with a rating higher than the baseline of 1500.  Ottawa remains at the bottom after being idle this week, but Edmonton is quickly racing for the bottom, just 3 rating points ahead of Ottawa.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with a big jump of probability from 21% to 25% after this week’s win.  Saskatchewan saw a big drop in their chances, dropping from 19% down to 11%.  Calgary is the second favourite, at 20%.  The Eastern teams aren’t looking very good, with Montreal the most likely to win the Grey Cup with a 12% chance, despite having a below average McDonald CFL Power Rating.  In our simulations, Edmonton has an extremely slim chance of winning, less than 1%, which is unprecedented so early in the season.

Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, no change from last week’s report.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 4 Game Predictions

Thursday: British Columbia (52%) at Ottawa (48%)
Friday: Edmonton (35%) at Hamilton (65%)
Saturday: Montreal (36%) at Saskatchewan (64%)
Monday: Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (47%)

Another exciting week in the CFL, with 3 of the games being decided by a difference of one touchdown or less!

In the Thursday Night Football game, Toronto squeaked out a victory over Montreal, 20-19.  It was Toronto’s first game of the year, as they had a bye in Week 1.  Trailing 20-12 halfway through the 4th quarter, Montreal looked determined as they scored a touchdown to narrow the score, but failed on their two-point convert attempt which would have tied the game.  Regaining the ball with 2:44 left, Montreal started their final march from their own 34 yard line, and after a drive that included successful 3rd-and-long and 2nd-and-long conversions, they held the ball at the Toronto 13 yard line with 18 seconds left.  Als placekicker David Cote, who was so far 4-for-4 on field goal attempts, lined up for a 21-yard field goal that would give Montreal the lead.  But, he missed the chip shot, Montreal had to settle for a rouge (often the most exciting play in Canadian football, but sadly not in this case), and Toronto ran out the clock for the 20-19 victory.

Friday night’s game saw two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg play bottom-ranked Ottawa in Canada’s capital.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg won 19-12.  RedBlack quarterback Jeremiah Masoli completed 27 of his 38 passes for 331 yards, but couldn’t score a touchdown.  Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros had a pedestrian performance, going 15 for 22 for 228 yards, but did throw a pair of touchdowns in the victory.

In an exciting game to start Saturday’s doubleheader, Calgary trailed most of the game but came back in the end, defeating Hamilton 33-30 in overtime.  Trailing 24-3 at the half, Calgary scored 3 second-half touchdowns and two field goals, including a tying 39-yarder as time ran out to tie the game.  On the first possession of the overtime, Calgary had to settle for a field goal, but when Hamilton had the ball, they were picked off to seal the thrilling victory for the Stampeders.  For the winners, quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell completed 28 of his 42 passes for 313 and 2 touchdowns, and was helped by Rene Paredes’ four field goals.  On the losing side, Hamilton’s QB Dane Evans went 36 for 51 for 425 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.

In Saturday’s nightcap, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton to face the lowly Elks.  In what seems to be a trend for the Riders, they had trouble getting the ball into the endzone, but came through in the end for a 26-16 victory.  The Rider defense looked strong, but their offense needs to start scoring more touchdowns!  The offensive star of the game was Saskatchewan running back Jamal Morrow, who rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown.  QB Cody Fajardo went 20 for 26 for 247 yards.  For the Elks, Nick Arbuckle passed for 315 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, and receiver Kenny Lawler pulled in 12 passes for 149 yards.

Week 2 Results

Montreal 19  at Toronto 20
Winnipeg 19 at Ottawa 12
Calgary 33 at Hamilton 30 (OT)
Saskatchewan 26 at Edmonton 16

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The uncertainty that we’ve added at the beginning of the season is surprisingly being worked out faster than expected, as our predictions have gone 7 for 8 in the first two weeks, with the only one we missed being this week’s Calgary / Hamilton game that Calgary won in overtime, whereas we had given Hamilton a 53% chance of winning the game, Week 2’s closest game according to our crack statisticians and prognosticators.

Two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg continues to be the top-ranked team.  Saskatchewan shows up number 2 in our rankings, just slightly ahead of Calgary.  Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, as they are the only Eastern team with a victory so far this year!  British Columbia moved past Montreal in the standings, by virtue of not playing while the Alouettes did and lost.  Edmonton and Ottawa are the lowest-ranked teams.

Grey Cup Predictions

There’s been only slight movement in our Grey Cup predictions.  Winnipeg is still the likeliest team to win it all, now at 21% probability, followed closely by Saskatchewan (19%) and Calgary (17%).  Despite being the third-ranked team in the East, Montreal is our top pick for an Eastern team to win the Grey Cup, at 11%.  Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning, up from 61% last week.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 3 Game Predictions

Thursday: Saskatchewan (53%) at Montreal (47%)
Friday: Hamilton (33%) at Winnipeg (67%)
Saturday: Edmonton (29%) at Calgary (71%)
Saturday: Toronto (48%) at British Columbia (52%)