Ah, the NHL season is about to start! The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.
Remember, teams have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, and players are older (none of the players this year are younger than last year — go figure!). As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out. Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.
Last year, Colorado was our top-ranked team almost the entire year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, they ended up winning the Stanley Cup! But, there’s 32 teams, and anything can happen. Now, having said that, our favourite to win the Stanley Cup this year is … Colorado! They are both our top-ranked team, and one of the three teams that we think have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup. The other two teams are Carolina and Toronto. Yes, Toronto! We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year…. Hah — that’s what I said last year, and look what happened (they lost in the first round of the playoffs to defending champion and eventual runner-up Tampa Bay)! Anyways, Colorado, Carolina, and Toronto all have a 6% chance of winning the Cup this year. Those same three teams are also favourites to win the President’s Trophy as the team with the best record in the regular season, all with a 7% chance.
Looking at just the Canadian teams, of course Toronto is the most likely to bring the Cup home at 6%, but they’re closely followed by Calgary (5%) and Edmonton (4%). Overall, we’ve calculated that there’s a 24.3% chance of a Canadian team winning it, which is slightly better than the percentage of Canadian teams in the NHL (7 of 32 teams, or 21.9%).
Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1551 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 1549 3 Carolina Hurricanes 1547 4 Calgary Flames 1543 5 (tie) Florida Panthers 1541 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues 1541 7 Minnesota Wild 1538 8 New York Rangers 1532 9 Edmonton Oilers 1531 10 (tie) Boston Bruins 1530 10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 1530 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 1520 13 Los Angeles Kings 1517 14 Washington Capitals 1515 15 Vancouver Canucks 1513 16 Vegas Golden Knights 1508 17 Nashville Predators 1506 18 Dallas Stars 1505 19 New York Islanders 1504 20 Winnipeg Jets 1503 21 Buffalo Sabres 1484 22 Ottawa Senators 1476 23 Columbus Blue Jackets 1475 24 Detroit Red Wings 1466 25 San Jose Sharks 1465 26 Anaheim Ducks 1460 27 Seattle Kraken 1454 28 Arizona Coyotes 1450 29 Chicago Blackhawks 1447 30 New Jersey Devils 1446 31 Philadelphia Flyers 1442 32 Montreal Canadiens 1441
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 25% 2 New York Rangers 19% 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 16% 4 Washington Capitals 14% 5 New York Islanders 12% 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 7% 7 New Jersey Devils 4% 8 Philadelphia Flyers 3%
Atlantic Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 24% 2 Florida Panthers 21% 3 (tie) Boston Bruins 17% 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 17% 5 Buffalo Sabres 7% 6 Ottawa Senators 6% 7 Detroit Red Wings 5% 8 Montreal Canadiens 3%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 24% 2 St. Louis Blues 20% 3 Minnesota Wild 19% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars 10% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators 10% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 10% 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 3% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 3%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 24% 2 Edmonton Oilers 19% 3 Los Angeles Kings 15% 4 Vancouver Canucks 14% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 13% 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 5% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 5% 8 Seattle Kraken 4%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 71% 2 New York Rangers 65% 3 Pittsburgh Penguins 60% 4 Washington Capitals 58% 5 New York Islanders 52% 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 38% 7 New Jersey Devils 26% 8 Philadelphia Flyers 25%
Atlantic Division
1 Toronto Maple Leafs 72% 2 Florida Panthers 69% 3 (tie) Boston Bruins 63% 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 63% 5 Buffalo Sabres 41% 6 Ottawa Senators 39% 7 Detroit Red Wings 34% 8 Montreal Canadiens 24%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 71% 2 St. Louis Blues 67% 3 Minnesota Wild 66% 4 (tie) Dallas Stars 51% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators 51% 6 Winnipeg Jets 50% 7 Arizona Coyotes 27% 8 Chicago Blackhawks 25%
Pacific Division
1 Calgary Flames 69% 2 Edmonton Oilers 64% 3 Los Angeles Kings 57% 4 Vancouver Canucks 56% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 53% 6 San Jose Sharks 33% 7 Anaheim Ducks 31% 8 Seattle Kraken 29%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 7% 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 7% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 7% 4 (tie) Calgary Flames 6% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers 6% 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild 6% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 6% 8 (tie) Boston Bruins 5% 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 5% 8 (tie) New York Rangers 5% 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 5% 12 Pittsburgh Penguins 4% 13 (tie) Dallas Stars 3% 13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 3% 13 (tie) New York Islanders 3% 13 (tie) Nashville Predators 3% 13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 3% 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 3% 13 (tie) Washington Capitals 3% 20 Winnipeg Jets 2% 21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 1% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 1% 21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 1% 21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators 1% 21 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 21 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1% 30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 30 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 30 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 6% 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche 6% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 6% 4 (tie) Calgary Flames 5% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers 5% 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild 5% 4 (tie) New York Rangers 5% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues 5% 9 (tie) Boston Bruins 4% 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 4% 9 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 4% 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 4% 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 4% 14 (tie) Dallas Stars 3% 14 (tie) New York Islanders 3% 14 (tie) Nashville Predators 3% 14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks 3% 14 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 3% 14 (tie) Washington Capitals 3% 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 3% 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 2% 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 2% 21 (tie) Ottawa Senators 2% 24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes 1% 24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1% 24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1% 24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 1% 24 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1% 24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers 1% 24 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 24 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1%