McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 14

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1646 (7) 12-1, 1st West
2 Calgary 1561 (10) 8-4, T-2nd West
3 British Columbia 1529 (13) 8-3, T-2nd West
4 (1) Toronto 1525 (11) 7-5, 1st East
5 (1) Saskatchewan 1508 (7) 6-7, 4th West
6 Montreal 1486 (13) 5-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1450 3-9, T-3rd East
8 Ottawa 1411 (11) 3-9, T-3rd East
9 Edmonton 1409 (9) 3-10, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1646 44% (2)
2 Toronto 1525 20% (2)
3 (1) Calgary 1561 11% (1)
T-4 (2) Montreal 1486 8% (1)
T-4 (1) British Columbia 1529 8% (3)
6 (1) Saskatchewan 1508 7% (1)
T-7 (1) Hamilton 1450 1%
T-7 Ottawa 1411 1% (1)
9 Edmonton 1409 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-1,
1st in West
1646 >99% 96% 99% 67% 44%
Toronto
7-5,
1st in East
1525 99% 99% 81% 91% 53% 20%
Calgary
8-4,
T-2nd in West
1561 >99% 49% <1% 54% 19% 11%
Montreal
5-7,
2nd in East
1486 84% 79% 19% 54% 24% 8%
British Columbia
8-3,
T-2nd in West
1529 >99% 51% 3% 47% 15% 8%
Saskatchewan
6-7,
4th in West
1508 86% 1% 40% 16% 7%
Hamilton
3-9,
T-3rd in East
1450 17% 11% <1% 9% 3% 1%
Ottawa
3-9,
T-3rd in East
1411 13% 11% <1% 7% 2% 1%
Edmonton
3-10,
5th in West
1409 1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)

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