McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 28, 2021

There were two possible elimination games last night, and both went to overtime. One team stayed alive, and one team finished off their series.

In the first game of the night, Montreal and Toronto went to overtime after Jake Muzzin scored twice in the 3rd period for Toronto to tie the game up at 3-3 after regulation. Joel Armia scored twice quickly for Montreal to start the game, and they took a 3-0 lead in the second period, but Toronto came back to send it to overtime. The game was over quickly, though, as Nick Suzuki scored 59 seconds into overtime to keep Montreal alive. The teams head to Montreal on Saturday (another Toronto-Montreal Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game!), with Toronto leading the series 3-2. As Quebec is starting to ease COVID restrictions, 2500 fans will be allowed in the Bell Centre, the first North Division game to allow fans.

The late game also went into overtime. Nashville, playing at home down 3-2 in the series, lead the game 3-1 in the second period, but Carolina came back and tied it with a Dougie Hamilton goal with 6:01 left in the 3rd. Neither team could score in the rest of regulation time, but Carolina finished it 1:16 into overtime as Sebastian Aho scored his second goal of the game. This victory won the series for Carolina, who will face Tampa Bay in the West Division final.

There is just one game tonight, as Minnesota travels to Vegas for the first Game 7 of this year’s playoffs. We’re giving Vegas a 58.0% chance of winning it. The winner will face the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team Colorado in the West Division final.

The NHL announced yesterday that the Division finals will start tomorrow, with the New York Islanders visiting Boston. We will update our chances of winning the Stanley Cup after the conclusion of all first-round series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)

Toronto leads series 3-2
Toronto now has a 85.0% chance of winning the series, down from 95.5%

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning (▼10.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼70.0)
- In 6 games: 57.0% (▲39.9)
- In 7 games: 28.0% (▲19.6)
Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning (▲10.5)
- In 7 games: 15.0% (▲10.5)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Carolina wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Today’s Games

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

Series tied 3-3
Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 58.0%
Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 42.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 85%, Montreal 15%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 57.0%
- In 7 games: 28.0%
Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 15.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 27, 2021

There were three potential elimination games last night. In the end, only two teams were eliminated, and the other series is going to Game 7.

In the first game, the New York Islanders defeated Pittsburgh 5-3, and so the Islanders won the series 4 games to 2. Pittsburgh had finished first in the East Division, and had won 8 of the 10 regular season meetings between these two, but anything can happen in the playoffs! Down 3-2 in the second period, New York scored 3 goals in 2 minutes and 59 seconds to take the lead. Pittsburgh wasn’t able to come back after that. The Islanders will face Boston in the East Division finals.

In the next game, Tampa Bay easily handled Florida 4-0, giving them a 4-2 series win. The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Carolina / Nashville series in the Central Division final.

In the late game, Minnesota shut out Vegas 3-0 to even the series at 3 games apiece. The game was scoreless until the 3rd period, when Minnesota scored 3 unanswered goals. The turning point came halfway through the period when, with Minnesota up 1-0, Vegas scored to tie it, but the goal was called back because of goaltender interference. Vegas challenged, but the call was upheld, and Vegas was given a delay of game penalty for the failed challenge. Then, Minnesota scored on the ensuing powerplay, and Vegas never came back. Game 7 of the series goes tomorrow night in Vegas.

Two games tonight, both potentially final games of the series. Montreal visits Toronto, with Toronto holding a 3-1 series lead and a 95.5% chance of winning the series, 70.0% finishing it tonight. In the nightcap, Carolina travels to Nashville, with Carolina up 3-2 in the series. We’re giving the Hurricanes an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning tonight’s game.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

New York Islanders win series 4-2

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3

Series tied 3-3
Vegas now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.5%

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

New simulation results:

Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
- In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.5)
- In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.5)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

Toronto leads series 3-1
Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

Carolina leads series 3-2
Carolina has an 82.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0%
- In 7 games: 29.2%
Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 58.0%
Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 42.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 8.4%
Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 26, 2021

It was a quieter night in the NHL playoffs last night, with only two games on tap. In the North Division, in the back end of a back-to-back pair of games, Toronto defeated hometown Montreal, 4-0. Standouts for Toronto included former Canadien Alex Galchenyuk, who had two nice assists and an empty net goal, and Jack Campbell, who recorded his first career playoff shutout. Toronto now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them a 95.5% chance of winning the series, and a 70.0% chance of winning it in 5 games.

The other game of the night was more exciting, with Nashville and Carolina going to overtime for the third game in a row. The last two games both went to double overtime, but this one was over quick, 1:44 into the first overtime period, when Jordan Staal batted the puck out of the air on a rebound from Juuse Saros and bounced it past the netminder. Carolina now takes a 3-2 lead on the road to Nashville, hoping to close out the series Thursday night. We’re giving Carolina an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning it in Game 6.

Tonight’s games could all eliminate a team from the playoffs. The New York Islanders are at home to Pittsburgh with a 3-2 series lead. We’re giving the Islanders a 70.2% chance of winning the series, and a 52.0% chance of winning in 6. The second game has Florida visiting Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay leading that series 3-2. Tampa Bay is favoured by the gang at McDonald NHL Power Ratings, with a 74.5% chance of winning the series and a 56.0% chance of finishing it tonight. And in the final game of the evening, Vegas travels to Minnesota, up 3 games to 2. Vegas is hoping to finish the series on the road, with a 48.9% chance of winning tonight and a 78.5% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 4 at Montreal 0

Toronto leads series 3-1
Toronto now has a 95.5% chance of winning the series, up from 83.9%

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning (▲11.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0% (▲29.4)
- In 6 games: 17.1% (▼8.7)
- In 7 games: 8.4% (▼9.2)
Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning (▼11.6)
- In 7 games: 4.5% (▼4.9)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼6.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)

Carolina leads series 3-2
Carolina now has an 82.2% chance of winning the series, up from 62.3%

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning (▲19.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0% (▲20.0)
- In 7 games: 29.2% (▼0.1)
Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning (▼19.9)
- In 7 games: 17.8% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼19.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

New York Islanders lead series 3-2
New York Islanders have a 70.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

Vegas leads series 3-2
Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0%
- In 7 games: 29.2%
Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5%
Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 56.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 29.8%
NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 52.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 8.4%
Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 25, 2021

5 games. 2 overtime games. 5 overtime periods. 3 teams facing elimination. 1 team eliminated. It was quite a day yesterday!

In the first game of the day, it took 2 overtime periods for the New York Islanders to beat Pittsburgh, 3-2. Although Pittsburgh dominated the game, it was the Islanders coming out on top, and they head to Long Island with a 3-2 series lead. We now give New York a 70% chance of winning that series.

In the second game, Toronto defeated Montreal 2-1. Once again, Carey Price was amazing in net for Montreal, but he can’t do everything by himself. Toronto now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving Toronto an 84% chance of winning the series.

In the next game, Florida, facing elimination, started rookie Spencer Knight in net. 19-year-old Knight had only played in 4 games in the NHL, but played brilliantly, stopping 38 of 39 Tampa Bay shots, and led Florida to a 4-1 victory. Tampa Bay leads the series 3-2, and with the next game being played in Tampa Bay, we’re giving them a 75% chance of winning the series.

Game 4 was the second North Division game of the night. After going to overtime just the day before, these two teams went to triple overtime this time! In the longest game in franchise history, Winnipeg won 4-3 to sweep the series. They move on to face the winner of the Toronto / Montreal series.

In the final game of the night, Minnesota visited Vegas. Facing elimination being down 3-1, the Wild held a 3-1 lead after the first period. The second period was all Vegas, though, as Minnesota only managed 1 shot in the period! But, Vegas only narrowed the gap to 3-2. Neither team scored again until the last minute of the game, when Minnesota scored an empty net goal to put the game away. Vegas now has a 3-2 series lead, and we’re giving them a 79% chance of winning the series.

There are only two games tonight. In the first, Toronto and Montreal face off for the second night in a row. And the late game features Nashville at Carolina, with that series tied 2-2. The home team has won every game in that series, with both games in Nashville going to double overtime. We’re giving Carolina a 62% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2
New York Islanders now have a 70.2% chance of winning the series, up from 38.3%

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning (▼31.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼32.3)
- In 7 games: 29.8% (▲0.4)
NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning (▲31.9)
- In 7 games: 18.3% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 52.0% (▲32.2)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 2 at Montreal 1

Toronto leads series 2-1
Toronto now has a 83.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.8%

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning (▲16.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 40.6% (▲17.9)
- In 6 games: 25.8% (▲2.4)
- In 7 games: 17.6% (▼4.0)
Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning (▼16.1)
- In 7 games: 9.4% (▼1.9)
- In 6 games: 6.7% (▼6.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
Tampa Bay now has a 74.5% chance of winning the series, down from 86.5%

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning (▲12.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5% (▲12.0)
Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning (▼12.0)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲8.7)
- In 6 games: 56.0% (▲26.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼47.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2

Vegas leads series 3-2
Vegas now has a 78.5% chance of winning the series, down from 92.1%

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
- In 6 games: 48.9% (▲30.8)
- In 7 games: 29.6% (▲18.7)
Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
- In 7 games: 21.5% (▲13.6)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

Toronto leads series 2-1
Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

Series tied 2-2
Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 33.0%
- In 7 games: 29.3%
Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.0%
- In 6 games: 19.7%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 25.5%
Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 56.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 29.8%
NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 52.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 48.9%
- In 7 games: 29.6%
Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 21.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 84%, Montreal 16%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 40.6%
- In 6 games: 25.8%
- In 7 games: 17.6%
Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 6.7%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 24, 2021

To make up for the previous day when there were no overtime games, two games went to overtime last night. One of those games went to double overtime. Plus, two series completed! Clearly, a day filled with 2s.

In the first game of the day yesterday, Nashville defeated Carolina 4 to 3 in double overtime. That’s the second game in a row that these teams went to double overtime, with Nashville winning both of them. The series is now tied 2-2, but we’re giving Carolina a 62.3% chance of winning the series, with the teams heading back to Carolina for game 5 tomorrow.

In the second game, Colorado easily handled St. Louis 5-2, sweeping the series in 4 games. Colorado will keep their spot in the top of the McDonald NHL Power Rankings next time we update them after the first round series have all completed. They’ll face the winner of the Vegas / Minnesota series.

In the next game, Boston won a hard-fought contest over Washington, 3-1. Boston never trailed in the game, but it was quite exciting. Boston wins this series 4 games to 1, and will face the winner of the Islanders / Pittsburgh series.

In the final game of the night, Winnipeg upset Edmonton 5-4 in overtime. Edmonton clearly dominated the game, leading 4-1 halfway through the third period, but Winnipeg scored 3 times in 3 minutes and 3 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime. The last 2 of those goals came just 16 seconds apart. In overtime, Edmonton had immense pressure on Winnipeg, but Connor Hellebuyck kept his cool and gave Winnipeg a chance, and Nikolaj Ehlers scored to win it for Winnipeg. The Jets now have a 3-0 series lead, and look for a sweep at home in Game 4.

There are 5 games on the slate tonight. The Islanders are in Pittsburgh, with that series tied 2-2. Toronto travels to Montreal to take on the Canadiens, with that series tied 1-1. Tampa Bay is in Florida, looking to finish off that series which they lead 3-1. Edmonton is in Winnipeg for the 2nd of back-to-back games, looking to avoid a Jets sweep. And in the last game of the night, Minnesota visits Vegas, with Vegas holding a 3-1 lead in that series.

Happy Victoria Day!

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)

Series tied 2-2
Carolina now has a 62.3% chance of winning the series, down from 78.9%

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning (▼16.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
- In 6 games: 33.0% (▲8.2)
- In 7 games: 29.3% (▲10.3)
Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning (▲16.6)
- In 7 games: 18.0% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 19.7% (▲10.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 3 at Washington 1

Boston wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)

Winnipeg leads series 3-0
Winnipeg now has a 91.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning (▼15.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼7.7)
- In 7 games: 8.1% (▼7.3)
Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning (▲15.0)
- In 7 games: 4.9% (▼4.5)
- In 6 games: 13.5% (▼5.3)
- In 5 games: 18.5% (▼1.2)
- In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.9)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

Series tied 2-2
Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

Series tied 1-1
Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
Tampa Bay has an 86.5% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton at Winnipeg

Winnipeg leads series 3-0
Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

Vegas leads series 3-1
Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 33.0%
- In 7 games: 29.3%
Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.0%
- In 6 games: 19.7%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.5%
Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.8%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 32.3%
- In 7 games: 29.4%
NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 19.8%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0%
- In 6 games: 18.1%
- In 7 games: 10.9%
Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.9%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 22.7%
- In 6 games: 23.4%
- In 7 games: 21.6%
Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 13.4%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 8%, Winnipeg 92%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 8.1%
Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.9%
- In 6 games: 13.5%
- In 5 games: 18.5%
- In 4 games: 55.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 23, 2021

For the first time during this year’s playoffs, no game went into overtime yesterday. In fact, all four games were pretty lopsided.

In the early game, Tampa Bay defeated Florida 6-2. That gives Tampa Bay a 3-1 series lead, and we’re now giving Tampa Bay an 86.5% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the day, the New York Islanders surprised Pittsburgh 4-1. The series is tied 2-2, but we’ve still got Pittsburgh as the favourite, giving them a 61.7% chance of winning the series.

In the Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game, Toronto dominated Montreal, winning 5-1. That ties the series at 1-1, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Toronto a 67.8% chance of winning the series. To relive childhood memories of watching these two teams play, I was tempted to have a bath between the first and second periods, and go to bed at the 2nd intermission, but I’m a grown-up now and I can stay up to see the end of the game, but since the game wasn’t too exciting, I didn’t watch the end of it anyways.

In the final game of the night, Vegas shut out Minnesota 4-0. That gives Vegas a 3-1 series lead, and we’ve upped Vegas’ chances of winning the series to 92.1%.

There are two afternoon games today. In the first tilt, just after lunch, Carolina is in Nashville. Carolina has a 2-1 series lead, and we’re giving them a 78.9% chance of winning that series. That game is closely followed by Colorado in St. Louis. Colorado has a 3-0 lead in that series, and we’re giving them a 63.0% chance of a sweep, and a 98.4% chance overall of winning the series.

In the first of the evening games, Boston returns to Washington to try to close out that series. Boston has a 3-1 series lead, and we’re giving them an 86.6% chance of winning the series. The evening finishes off with Edmonton travelling to Winnipeg. Thanks to COVID, Edmonton will not have to face the famous Winnipeg White Out, but we’re still giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of winning their series.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
Tampa Bay now has an 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 68.0%

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning (▼18.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.3)
- In 7 games: 13.5% (▼6.3)
Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning (▲18.5)
- In 7 games: 9.8% (▼4.9)
- In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.7)
- In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4

Series tied 2-2
Pittsburgh now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning (▼16.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
- In 6 games: 32.3% (▲7.8)
- In 7 games: 29.4% (▲10.3)
NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning (▲16.9)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲6.4)
- In 6 games: 19.8% (▲10.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 1 at Toronto 5

Series tied 1-1
Toronto now has a 67.8% chance of winning the series, up from 54.9%

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning (▲12.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 22.7% (▲7.7)
- In 6 games: 23.4% (▲4.2)
- In 7 games: 21.6% (▲0.9)
Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning (▼12.9)
- In 7 games: 11.3% (▲0.5)
- In 6 games: 13.4% (▼1.8)
- In 5 games: 7.5% (▼3.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.2)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0

Vegas leads series 3-1
Vegas now has a 92.1% chance of winning the series, up from 74.3%

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning (▲17.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0% (▲32.1)
- In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.5)
- In 7 games: 10.9% (▼8.9)
Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning (▼17.8)
- In 7 games: 7.9% (▼6.4)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

Carolina leads series 2-1
Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado at St. Louis

Colorado leads series 3-0
Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning the series

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston at Washington

Boston leads series 3-1
Boston has an 86.6% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton at Winnipeg

Winnipeg leads series 2-0
Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.8%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 9.2%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.5%
Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.8%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 32.3%
- In 7 games: 29.4%
NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 18.5%
- In 6 games: 19.8%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.9%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 63.0%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 6 games: 6.1%
- In 7 games: 3.0%
St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 1.6%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0%
- In 6 games: 18.1%
- In 7 games: 10.9%
Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.9%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 22.7%
- In 6 games: 23.4%
- In 7 games: 21.6%
Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 13.4%
- In 5 games: 7.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 7.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 18.8%
- In 5 games: 19.7%
- In 4 games: 29.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 22, 2021

Another day, two more overtime games! And neither of those two games involved Washington and Boston! I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that there are so many overtime games; the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model expects 22.5% of games to be tied at the end of regulation time. But this makes for very exciting playoff games.

After the first three games between Washington and Boston going to overtime, Boston won yesterday 4 to 1. They now lead the series 3 games to 1, and head back to Washington. Even with two games left in Washington and only one in Boston, a 3-1 lead is pretty powerful; we’re giving Boston an 86.6% chance of winning the series. We’ll see if the next game is as close as the first three.

In the second game of the day, and the only one not shown on Canadian TV, Nashville defeated Carolina 5-4 in double overtime! Carolina didn’t help themselves, giving Nashville 7 power-play opportunities, including a 5-on-3 and a power play in the 2nd overtime period. But, it was a close game, neither team going up by more than a goal through the entire game. Nashville needed the home win; even though Nashville is only down 2-1, we’re still giving Carolina a 78.9% chance of winning the series.

In the second overtime game of the day, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 1-0. After losing 9 of their last 12 games of the regular season, including a 7 game losing streak, and losing 7 of the 10 regular season games against Edmonton, the Jets have taken a 2-0 lead in this series. With the teams heading to Winnipeg for the next two games, we’re now giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of taking the series.

In the late game, Colorado overpowered St. Louis 5-1. Colorado is the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and they look to be too much for St. Louis. They lead the series 3-0, and we’re now giving them a 98.4% chance of winning the series, including a 63.0% chance of a sweep.

There are four more games on tap today. The big game, of course, is the Hockey Night In Canada game featuring Montreal in Toronto. Montreal won the first game of the series, but we’re still giving Toronto a 54.9% chance of taking the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 1 at Boston 4

Boston leads series 3-1
Boston now has an 86.6% chance of winning the series, up from 68.5%

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning (▼18.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.0)
- In 7 games: 13.4% (▼6.1)
Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning (▲18.1)
- In 7 games: 9.9% (▼5.0)
- In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.3)
- In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)

Carolina leads series 2-1
Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, down from 89.2%

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.4)
- In 5 games: 35.0% (▲4.0)
- In 6 games: 24.8% (▲9.7)
- In 7 games: 19.0% (▲8.3)
Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲5.1)
- In 6 games: 9.2% (▲5.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)

Winnipeg leads series 2-0
Winnipeg now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 54.7%

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼22.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.9)
- In 6 games: 7.7% (▼7.8)
- In 7 games: 15.4% (▼3.6)
Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲22.2)
- In 7 games: 9.4% (▼2.3)
- In 6 games: 18.8% (▲1.3)
- In 5 games: 19.7% (▲5.7)
- In 4 games: 29.1% (▲17.7)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1

Colorado leads series 3-0
Colorado now has a 98.4% chance of winning the series, up from 93.1%

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning (▲5.3)
- In 4 games: 63.0% (▲24.6)
- In 5 games: 26.3% (▼6.0)
- In 6 games: 6.1% (▼7.7)
- In 7 games: 3.0% (▼5.6)
St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning (▼5.3)
- In 7 games: 1.6% (▼2.8)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

Montreal leads series 1-0
Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

Vegas leads series 2-1
Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.8%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 9.2%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 26.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.5%
- In 7 games: 19.1%
NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.1%
- In 6 games: 9.3%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.4%
Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.9%
- In 6 games: 29.6%
- In 5 games: 47.1%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 63.0%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 6 games: 6.1%
- In 7 games: 3.0%
St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 1.6%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 23.6%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 11.4%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 15.0%
- In 6 games: 19.2%
- In 7 games: 20.7%
Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 5 games: 11.0%
- In 4 games: 8.2%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 7.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.4%
- In 6 games: 18.8%
- In 5 games: 19.7%
- In 4 games: 29.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 21, 2021

More overtime! In the first game of the day yesterday, Florida came back from a 2-goal deficit in the third to tie the game, then won it in overtime. Down 2-0 and playing on the road, Florida desperately needed the win, and they got it. Tampa Bay is still favoured to win the series, but only with a 68.0% chance now, down from 83.6%.

The second game of the day was probably the day’s best. In a good hard-nosed, physical game, Pittsburgh edged the Islanders 5-4. At one point in the 3rd period, each team had 5 players in the penalty box! It wasn’t a dirty game, just very physical — good playoff hockey! Pittsburgh takes a 2-1 series lead, and now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series.

Ah, Montreal and Toronto! What Canadian hockey fan (and we’re all hockey fans!) wouldn’t love to see a game between these two great rivals. And what a game! Montreal broke a 1-1 tie late in the third on a short-handed goal by Paul Byron, who scored from his knees after getting tripped on a breakaway, a beautiful goal! Carey Price was spectacular in the net. Toronto has a really good team (and pretty cheesy mustaches, yuck), but they haven’t been able to beat Montreal in the playoffs since May 2nd, 1967! Their second matchup comes Saturday night; good old Hockey Night In Canada, Saturday night, Montreal vs. Toronto!!! We’re still favouring Toronto to win the series (54.9%), but it should continue to be a great series.

In the nightcap, Vegas scored 5 unanswered goals to beat Minnesota 5-2. I’d say it was a yawner, but that’s only because I was tired and went to bed before the game was over. We’re now giving Vegas a 74.3% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s games, Washington visits Boston, down 2-1. The previous three games in the series have all gone to overtime, so we’re expecting another close game! Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, so Washington really needs this road win. Carolina travels to Nashville, up 2-0. Nashville really needs to turn things around — we’re giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series. Winnipeg plays in Edmonton, with a 1-0 lead in that series. We’re seeing this a close series, giving Winnipeg a slight edge at 54.7%. And in the late game, top-ranked Colorado plays in St. Louis. Colorado has a 2-0 lead in the series, and the McDonald NHL Power Rating team gives them a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
Tampa Bay now has a 68.0% chance of winning the series, down from 83.6%

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning (▲15.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3% (▲7.3)
- In 7 games: 19.8% (▲8.4)
Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning (▼15.6)
- In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.3)
- In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
- In 5 games: 26.4% (▲4.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼35.4)

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
Pittsburgh now has a 78.6% chance of winning, up from 59.4%

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲19.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0% (▲17.2)
- In 6 games: 24.5% (▲4.1)
- In 7 games: 19.1% (▼2.0)
NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼19.2)
- In 7 games: 12.1% (▼1.1)
- In 6 games: 9.3% (▼7.7)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 2 at Toronto 1

Montreal leads series 1-0
Toronto now has a 54.9% chance of winning, down from 75.3%

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning (▼20.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼17.4)
- In 5 games: 15.0% (▼9.7)
- In 6 games: 19.2% (▲1.5)
- In 7 games: 20.7% (▲5.3)
Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning (▲20.4)
- In 7 games: 10.8% (▲2.7)
- In 6 games: 15.2% (▲6.2)
- In 5 games: 11.0% (▲5.9)
- In 4 games: 8.2% (▲5.6)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2

Vegas leads series 2-1
Vegas now has a 74.3% chance of winning, up from 52.7%

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning (▲21.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9% (▲16.5)
- In 6 games: 23.6% (▲5.6)
- In 7 games: 19.8% (▼0.4)
Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning (▼21.6)
- In 7 games: 14.3% (▼0.2)
- In 6 games: 11.4% (▼8.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington at Boston

Boston leads series 2-1
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

Carolina leads series 2-0
Carolina has an 89.2% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg at Edmonton

Winnipeg leads series 1-0
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado at St. Louis

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.4%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 10.7%
Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.3%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.7%
- In 6 games: 26.9%
- In 5 games: 26.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 35.0%
- In 6 games: 24.5%
- In 7 games: 19.1%
NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.1%
- In 6 games: 9.3%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 7 games: 19.5%
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 27.3%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 38.4%
- In 5 games: 32.3%
- In 6 games: 13.8%
- In 7 games: 8.6%
St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.4%
- In 6 games: 2.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 23.6%
- In 7 games: 19.8%
Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 11.4%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 15.0%
- In 6 games: 19.2%
- In 7 games: 20.7%
Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 5 games: 11.0%
- In 4 games: 8.2%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 5 games: 14.0%
- In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 20, 2021

Another overtime playoff game! Boston and Washington went to overtime again, as they have in all 3 games of their series! This time, it went into double overtime, with Boston winning it after a miscommunication between Washington goalie Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Justin Schultz gave the Bruins’ Craig Smith an easy goal. Boston leads that series 2-1, and are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win the series with a 68.5% chance.

In the second game of the night, Carolina defeated Nashville 3-0. The game was much closer than the score indicated, as Carolina moved ahead 2-0 with a last minute empty-net goal, then scored again before time was out. Nashville faces a tough battle heading home, as we’re now giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.

There was yet another game that was much closer than the score showed, with Winnipeg beating Edmonton 4-1. Edmonton was down 2-1 with a couple minutes left, and were putting huge pressure on Winnipeg, but after they pulled their goalie, Winnipeg scored a couple empty netters. That was the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Winnipeg a 54.7% chance of winning the series.

In the night’s final game, Colorado defeated St. Louis 6-3. Although Colorado dominated, the score was 4-3 when St. Louis pulled their goalie, and Colorado quickly scored a couple empty netters to put the game away. Nathan MacKinnon got a hat trick in the Colorado victory. The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives top-ranked Colorado a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

There are four games on the slate again tonight. First up, Florida visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 and needing a road victory to keep themselves competitive. Pittsburgh is in New York to face the Islanders. That series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a slight edge in the series. The highlight of the night will be Montreal visiting Toronto for the first game of their series. It will be a tough series for Montreal, but their winning tradition and Toronto’s non-winning tradition will make it interesting. Still, we’re giving Toronto a 75.3% chance of winning the series. And in the last game, Vegas travels to Minnesota. Their series is tied 1-1, and it’s pretty much a coin flip who’s going to win it, as we’re giving Vegas a slight 52.7% / 47.3% edge.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)

Boston leads series 2-1
Boston now has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, up from 49.7%

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning (▼18.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.5)
- In 6 games: 12.0% (▼5.1)
- In 7 games: 19.5% (▼0.2)
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning (▲18.8)
- In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
- In 6 games: 27.3% (▲6.6)
- In 5 games: 26.3% (▲12.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 0 at Carolina 3

Carolina leads series 2-0
Carolina now has a 89.2% chance of winning the series, up from 78.9%

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
- In 5 games: 31.0% (▲4.6)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▼1.9)
- In 7 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.3)
- In 6 games: 4.1% (▼4.4)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1

Winnipeg leads series 1-0
Winnipeg now has a 54.7% chance of winning, up from 33.7%

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

New simulation results:

Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.9)
- In 5 games: 10.9% (▼9.9)
- In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.0)
- In 7 games: 19.0% (▲2.9)
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 11.7% (▲1.7)
- In 6 games: 17.5% (▲5.6)
- In 5 games: 14.0% (▲6.5)
- In 4 games: 11.4% (▲7.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6

Colorado leads series 2-0
Colorado now has a 93.1% chance of winning, up from 85.8%

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning (▲7.3)
- In 4 games: 38.4% (▲11.4)
- In 5 games: 32.3% (▲2.5)
- In 6 games: 13.8% (▼2.9)
- In 7 games: 8.6% (▼3.8)
St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning (▼7.3)
- In 7 games: 4.4% (▼2.0)
- In 6 games: 2.5% (▼3.1)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

Series tied 1-1
Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

Series tied 0-0
Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

Series tied 1-1
Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 5-2-3
Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
May 21: Carolina at Nashville
May 23: Carolina at Nashville
May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.4%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 10.7%
Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.1%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1553, 8th overall
Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Florida: 5 regulation wins
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 8-2-0
Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 5.0%
- In 7 games: 11.4%
Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.4%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 21.6%
- In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 20.4%
- In 7 games: 21.1%
NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.2%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 5 games: 10.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Washington: 1572, 4th overall
Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Washington: 7-2-1
Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
May 21: Washington at Boston
May 23: Boston at Washington
May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 12.0%
- In 7 games: 19.5%
Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.9%
- In 6 games: 27.3%
- In 5 games: 26.3%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Colorado: 5 regulation wins
St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 8-2-0
St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 38.4%
- In 5 games: 32.3%
- In 6 games: 13.8%
- In 7 games: 8.6%
St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.4%
- In 6 games: 2.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Vegas: 7-3-0
Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 18.0%
- In 7 games: 20.2%
Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 14.5%
- In 6 games: 19.5%
- In 5 games: 13.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-1-2
Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 20: Montreal at Toronto
May 22: Montreal at Toronto
May 24: Toronto at Montreal
May 25: Toronto at Montreal
May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.4%
- In 5 games: 24.7%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.1%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 5.1%
- In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-3-0
Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.9%
- In 6 games: 15.5%
- In 7 games: 19.0%
Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.7%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 5 games: 14.0%
- In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – May 19, 2021 (end of regular season)

Well, the regular season has finally come to an end. This week, there have been two meaningless games, both between Vancouver and Calgary, neither of which made the playoffs. The Canucks won the first game at home, then the next day, Calgary won in Calgary. Neither game was very exciting or interesting, but the season is done. With the split, Calgary lost a rating point and Vancouver gained one, but neither team’s overall position in the rankings changed.

These ratings do not include any of the playoff games that have taken place before the end of the regular season.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔
Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals (1572)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes (1565)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

Making the playoffs: ✔
Winning the President’s Trophy: —
Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

End of regular season schedule

Next week:

End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from 3 days ago.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575
 4       Washington Capitals           1572
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1565
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1560
 7       Boston Bruins                 1557
 8       Florida Panthers              1553
 9       Minnesota Wild                1550
10       Edmonton Oilers               1548
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1539
12       New York Islanders            1523
13       St. Louis Blues               1517
14       New York Rangers              1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479
19       Calgary Flames                1476 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks             1448 (▲1)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1446
25       Los Angeles Kings             1444
26       Detroit Red Wings             1443
27       New Jersey Devils             1441
28       San Jose Sharks               1440
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           10%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           9%
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          9%
 6       Washington Capitals           8%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5%
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           2%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —