Month: October 2022

After the third last weekend of the CFL season, unbelievably 8 teams are still in contention for playoff spots!  It should make for an exciting final two weeks!

There were two games on Friday.  The first game saw Montreal head to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks.  In a close game, Montreal beat Ottawa 34-30.  After a high-scoring first half, Ottawa led 24-17, but were held scoreless in the third quarter, while Montreal scored 17 second half points to win the game.  Ottawa had a chance to go ahead late in the game, but quarterback Nick Arbuckle fumbled the ball when he was sacked on the Montreal 39 yard line with 33 seconds left, and Montreal recovered the ball.

The nightcap featured Hamilton travelling to Calgary.  Needing a win to try to prevent a Saskatchewan crossover in the playoffs, Hamilton came through, beating Calgary 35-32.  It was Hamilton’s first win in Calgary since 2004.  In an exciting finish, Calgary took a 32-27 lead on a touchdown with 1:03 left in the game, and on their ensuing possession, Hamilton quickly moved the ball down the field and scored with 11 seconds left to earn the victory.

There were also two games on Saturday.  In the early game, 1st place in the East Toronto travelled to Edmonton to face the 5th place in the West Edmonton.  In a surprisingly close game, Toronto scored 16 4th quarter points to come back to beat Edmonton 28-23.  Toronto scored the winning touchdown with 32 seconds left in the game on a 25 yard run by running back A.J. Ouellette.  Toronto kicker Boris Bede was the star of the game for Toronto as he made all 5 of his field goal attempts, scoring 15 of the Argonauts’ 28 points.  On the Elks side, running back Kevin Brown carried the ball 19 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.

In the last game of the weekend, Winnipeg started their second-string quarterback as they faced British Columbia in Vancouver.  It was a meaningless game for Winnipeg, but very meaningful for BC as they fight with Calgary for 2nd place in the West division and a home playoff game.  In the end, British Columbia defeated Winnipeg 40-32.  In a game with lots of offense, BC scored two pick-6 interceptions to help them to the victory.  On the offensive side of the ball, James Butler rushed 14 times for 104 yards for the Lions, while for Winnipeg, quarterback Dru Brown passed for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns (5 if you count his two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns).  Special teams were exciting as well, with the Bombers’ Janarion Grant returning a punt 94 yards for a touchdown, and 245 total return yards (172 on 5 punt returns and 73 on 4 kickoff returns).  But, he was outdone by the Lions’ Terry Williams who totalled 341 return yards, with 155 on 3 missed field goal returns, one of which was for 90 yards, 152 on 5 kickoff returns, and 34 on 3 punt returns.

Looking at the playoff picture, in the West, Winnipeg has clinched first place, but British Columbia and Calgary are battling it out for second place and a home game in the West Semi-Final.  BC is currently in 2nd spot with an 11-5 record, but the Stampeders are close behind at 10-6.  BC faces bottom-ranked Edmonton next week and top-ranked Winnipeg in the last week, while Calgary has a home-and-home series with struggling Saskatchewan.  We’re giving BC a 90% chance of finishing second.

In the East, 5 teams are still in the hunt for playoff spots in the 4 team division!  Toronto leads with a 10-6 record, and we’re giving them an 80% chance of winning the division.  Montreal is next at 8-8, and they’re the only other team with a chance of winning the East, with a 20% chance.  Hamilton is currently in 3rd with a 6-10 record, but the West’s Saskatchewan still is holding out hope for a cross-over playoff position.  They are also 6-10, but they need to finish with a better record than the 3rd-place East team to cross over.  Finally, Ottawa, at 4-12, still has a chance for a playoff spot.  Hamilton and Ottawa have a home-and-home series to end the season, and Saskatchewan has the same with Calgary.  We’ve calculated that Hamilton has a 77% chance of getting that last spot, followed by Saskatchewan with an 18% chance, and Ottawa at 6% chance.

Week 19 Results

Montreal 34  at Ottawa 30
Hamilton 35  at Calgary 32
Toronto 28  at Edmonton 23
Winnipeg 32  at British Columbia 40

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much change in our rankings, only Hamilton and Saskatchewan changing spots for 6th and 7th.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, with Calgary the second best, despite trailing 4th-ranked British Columbia in the standings.  Toronto continues to be the top Eastern team, with a very respectable 1546 rating.  Ottawa and Edmonton are battling it out for the worst ranking, with Edmonton currently the worst team with 1401 rating points, but Ottawa is only one rating point ahead at 1402!

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 40% chance.  Their chances dropped 3% from last week based on their loss to BC this weekend, although they did start their second-string quarterback.  But, if 1st-stringer Zach Collaros goes down, they’ll need to rely on their backup.  Toronto is the favourite from the East, now with a 24% chance, up 1% from last week.  Grey Cup host Saskatchewan continues to see their hopes fade, with only a 3% chance of making the game, and a 1% chance of winning it.

Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 18% chance of 4th-place Saskatchewan crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 15% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 20 Game Predictions

Friday’s games

• Ottawa (31%) at Hamilton (68%)
• British Columbia (62%) at Edmonton (37%)

Saturday’s games

• Toronto (49%) at Montreal (50%)
• Calgary (53%) at Saskatchewan (46%)

Thanksgiving weekend!  While the rest of us were eating turkey, 8 of the CFL teams were playing football.  I guess Calgary was probably eating turkey, too, or maybe getting ready for the stretch run.  With unseasonably warm temperatures, it doesn’t quite feel like the regular season is nearing an end, but there’s just three weeks left!

The weekend started with Friday Night Football, with Saskatchewan travelling to Hamilton.  This game was a must-win for both teams, as they are both battling for the last playoff spot in the East, with Saskatchewan hoping for the cross-over from the West division.  In an unimpressive outing for both teams, Hamilton beat Saskatchewan 18-14.  The outstanding offensive player of the game was Hamilton’s running back Wes Hills, who amassed 132 yards on 25 carries.  Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo completed 24 of 31 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, despite being sacked seven times!  He also led the Riders with 22 (yes, that’s right, only 22) yards rushing.  The win sees Hamilton’s chances of making the playoffs increase from 32% to 56%, while Saskatchewan’s decreased from 64% to 33%.

Saturday saw two games, with the first featuring British Columbia playing in Toronto.  In an exciting finish, Toronto defeated BC 23-20.  With just under 3 minutes to play, Toronto scored a touchdown to take the lead 23-20.  In response, BC marched down the field and, with about a minute and a half left, gave kicker Sean Whyte the opportunity to tie the game with a 41 yard field goal, but he hit the upright!  Toronto then ran out the clock to seal the victory.  Toronto quarterback McLead Bethel-Thompson passed for 352 yards and a touchdown, completing 27 of his 40 passing attempts.

In the nightcap, Edmonton faced a tough battle as they headed to Winnipeg to face the top team in the league.  In a completely expected result, Winnipeg trounced Edmonton 48-11.  With the win, Winnipeg clinched first place in the West, and Edmonton has now been eliminated from playoff contention.  Winnipeg scored touchdowns on their first four possessions of the game.  Three Winnipeg quarterbacks passed for touchdowns, with Zach Collaros throwing 3, Dur Brown throwing one for 65 yards, and Dakota Prukop getting the other for 24 yards.

The final game of the weekend took place on Thanksgiving Monday, with Ottawa playing in Montreal.  In a surprise, Ottawa beat Montreal 24-18.  For Ottawa, quarterback Nick Arbuckle completed 28 of his 32 passes for 229 yards; his Montreal counterpart Trevor Harris completed 30 of 38 of his own for 338 yards and a touchdown.  Ottawa running back Caleb Evans carried the ball 7 times, amassing a total of 11 yards, with his longest run being 3 yards, but he did score both of Ottawa’s touchdowns!

Week 18 Results

Saskatchewan 14  at Hamilton 18
British Columbia 20  at Toronto 23
Edmonton 11  at Winnipeg 48
Ottawa 24  at Montreal 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains at the top of the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, and they look exceptionally powerful heading into the last 3 weekends of the season, with a huge 69 rating point lead over 2nd-best Calgary.  Toronto is the top team in the East, passing British Columbia to take over 3rd spot in the rankings.  With Ottawa’s win and Edmonton’s loss, Edmonton is now seen as the weakest team in the league.  I should stop bashing the East, as 2 of the bottom 4 teams come from the West.

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the McDonald CFL Power Ratings favourite to win the Grey Cup, as we’re now giving them a 43% chance of winning it all.  They’ve clinched first place in the West, giving them a playoff bye and home field advantage in the West final.  Top choice from the East is Toronto, who we’re giving a 23% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  We’re giving them an 85% chance of winning the East.

Saskatchewan’s chances continue to plummet, as we’re now only giving them a 2% chance of winning it.  Too bad, as the game is being held in Regina this year.  With their loss to Hamilton this week, their only chance of making the playoffs now is with the crossover, meaning they’ll need to finish with a better record than the third place team in the East.  The chances of that happening dropped from 65% to 33%; they are also the only team that could get the crossover.

Overall, there’s a 65% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 33% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 32% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 19 Game Predictions

Friday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Friday: Hamilton (43%) at Calgary (56%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Edmonton (39%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (58%) at British Columbia (41%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Winnipeg defeat Saskatchewan, again, 31-13
Friday: Ottawa continues dismal season, losing 34-19 to British Columbia
Saturday: Edmonton continues dismal season, losing 25-18 to Montreal
Saturday: Toronto scores two rouges, but loses to Calgary 29-2

Week 17 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Winnipeg 31
Ottawa 19  at British Columbia 34
Montreal 25  at Edmonton 18
Toronto 2 at Calgary 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 65% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 6% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 18 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (47%) at Hamilton (52%)
Saturday: British Columbia (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Saturday: Edmonton (17%) at Winnipeg (82%)
Monday: Ottawa (28%) at Montreal (71%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeats Hamilton 23-16
Saturday: Toronto clinch playoff spot by thumping Ottawa 45-15
Saturday: Calgary gets revenge on BC for last week’s OT loss, winning 25-11

Week 16 Results

Hamilton 16  at Montreal 23
Toronto 45  at Ottawa 15
Calgary 25  at British Columbia 11

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 71% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up 7% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (down 1% from last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 17 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at British Columbia (73%)
Saturday: Montreal (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: Toronto (39%) at Calgary (60%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Edmonton squeak by Saskatchewan 26-24, first win at Mosaic Stadium since 2015
Saturday: Hamilton surprises Winnipeg 48-31
Saturday: British Columbia defeats Calgary 31-29 in overtime

Week 15 Results

Edmonton 26  at Saskatchewan 24
Winnipeg 31  at Hamilton 48
British Columbia 31  at Calgary 29 (OT)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 64% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 23% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 16 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Montreal (59%)
Saturday: Toronto (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (43%) at British Columbia (56%)

I haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)