With the win, Tampa Bay, already the favourite, has increased their chances of winning the Stanley Cup. The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Tampa Bay a 75.5% chance of winning the Final, up from 61.9%. That means, in our 1,000,000 simulations, Tampa Bay won roughly ¾ of the time. But that also means that Montreal won ¼ of the time, so they can’t be counted out yet! Remember, they won their first round series against Toronto after being down 3 games to 1, when we calculated that Toronto had a 95% chance of winning the series.
Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.
Yesterday’s Game
Stanley Cup Final
Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
- Tampa Bay now has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 61.9%
Series schedule:
- Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
- Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
- Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
- Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
- Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
- In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
- In 5 games: 25.3% (▲6.3)
- In 6 games: 16.8% (▲1.2)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
- Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
- In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.3)
Wednesday’s Game
Stanley Cup Final
Montreal at Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
- Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup
Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals
Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 75%, Montreal 25%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Tampa Bay: 1581
- Montreal: 1544
Playoffs so far:
- Tampa Bay:
- First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
- Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
- Montreal:
- First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
- Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
- Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games
Series schedule:
- Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
- Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
- Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
- Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
- Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.3%
- In 6 games: 16.8%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
- Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%