Ah, Saturday night, Hockey Night in Canada, Toronto vs. Montreal.  Always a good game!  And tonight was no exception.  Down 3-2 in the series but playing at home before spectators for the first time this season, the Canadiens came out playing hard.  After two periods, the game was still scoreless, but then Montreal scored two power-play goals early in the period to take the lead.  But, facing the prospect of heading to a Game 7, Toronto scored two of their own with less than 5 minutes to play.  The score remained knotted at 2 and headed to overtime.  Toronto put the pressure on Montreal, outshooting them 15-2, but it was Jesperi Kotkaniemi scoring for Montreal at 15:15 of the overtime period.  The teams now head to Toronto on Monday for Game 7.  We still have Toronto as the favourite, with a 65.0% chance of winning the series, which would be their first playoff series win in 17 years.

In the other game, the 2nd round of the playoffs opened with the New York Islanders visiting Boston for the first game of the East Division finals.  Boston outplayed New York, and outshot them 40-22, but the game was tied at 2 after the second period.  But, Boston scored early in the third, and again on David Pastrnak’s 3rd goal of the game 14:10 into the 3rd to make it 4-2.  Boston also scored an empty-netter to finish the scoring for the night.  We’re favouring Boston to win this series, and after this first game victory, we’ve calculated their chances at 75.6%.

There are two games tonight, both opening their series.  In the early game, Tampa Bay visits Carolina to start the Central Division Final.  We’re giving Carolina a narrow 56.4% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, Colorado hosts Vegas to kick off the West Division final.  We expect Colorado, the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, to win this series, with them winning 67.3% of the time in our simulations.

I likely won’t be generating these Playoff Reports for the next few days, as I’ll be out of town and away from the computer.  Look for the next report on Wednesday or Thursday!

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Series tied 3-3
• Toronto now has 65.0% chance of winning the series, down from 85.0%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 65.0% chance of winning (▼20.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼57.0)
  • In 7 games: 65.0% (▲37.0)
• Montreal has a 35.0% chance of winning (▲20.0)
  • In 7 games: 35.0% (▲20.0)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division Final

New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5

• Boston leads series 1-0
• Boston now has a 75.6% chance of winning the series, up from 62.3%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 75.6% chance of winning (▲13.3)
  • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
  • In 5 games: 25.2% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.1)
  • In 7 games: 15.2% (▼1.0)
• New York Islanders has a 24.4% chance of winning (▼13.3)
  • In 7 games: 10.1% (▼0.7)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay at Carolina

• Series tied 0-0
• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Vegas at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Toronto 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 65.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 65.0%
• Montreal has a 35.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.9%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 75.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.2%
  • In 6 games: 16.9%
  • In 7 games: 15.2%
• New York Islanders has a 24.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 4.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 67%, Vegas 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 21.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Vegas has a 32.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.6%
  • In 5 games: 7.2%
  • In 4 games: 4.1%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. TBD

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.  They will be recalculated once the first round is completed.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%