There were two possible elimination games last night, and both went to overtime.  One team stayed alive, and one team finished off their series.

In the first game of the night, Montreal and Toronto went to overtime after Jake Muzzin scored twice in the 3rd period for Toronto to tie the game up at 3-3 after regulation.  Joel Armia scored twice quickly for Montreal to start the game, and they took a 3-0 lead in the second period, but Toronto came back to send it to overtime.  The game was over quickly, though, as Nick Suzuki scored 59 seconds into overtime to keep Montreal alive.  The teams head to Montreal on Saturday (another Toronto-Montreal Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game!), with Toronto leading the series 3-2.  As Quebec is starting to ease COVID restrictions, 2500 fans will be allowed in the Bell Centre, the first North Division game to allow fans.

The late game also went into overtime.  Nashville, playing at home down 3-2 in the series, lead the game 3-1 in the second period, but Carolina came back and tied it with a Dougie Hamilton goal with 6:01 left in the 3rd.  Neither team could score in the rest of regulation time, but Carolina finished it 1:16 into overtime as Sebastian Aho scored his second goal of the game.  This victory won the series for Carolina, who will face Tampa Bay in the West Division final.

There is just one game tonight, as Minnesota travels to Vegas for the first Game 7 of this year’s playoffs.  We’re giving Vegas a 58.0% chance of winning it.  The winner will face the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team Colorado in the West Division final.

The NHL announced yesterday that the Division finals will start tomorrow, with the New York Islanders visiting Boston.  We will update our chances of winning the Stanley Cup after the conclusion of all first-round series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)

• Toronto leads series 3-2
• Toronto now has a 85.0% chance of winning the series, down from 95.5%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼70.0)
  • In 6 games: 57.0% (▲39.9)
  • In 7 games: 28.0% (▲19.6)
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 7 games: 15.0% (▲10.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

• Carolina wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Today’s Games

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Series tied 3-3
• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 58.0%
• Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 42.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 85%, Montreal 15%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 57.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.0%
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%