There were three potential elimination games last night. In the end, only two teams were eliminated, and the other series is going to Game 7.
In the first game, the New York Islanders defeated Pittsburgh 5-3, and so the Islanders won the series 4 games to 2. Pittsburgh had finished first in the East Division, and had won 8 of the 10 regular season meetings between these two, but anything can happen in the playoffs! Down 3-2 in the second period, New York scored 3 goals in 2 minutes and 59 seconds to take the lead. Pittsburgh wasn’t able to come back after that. The Islanders will face Boston in the East Division finals.
In the next game, Tampa Bay easily handled Florida 4-0, giving them a 4-2 series win. The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Carolina / Nashville series in the Central Division final.
In the late game, Minnesota shut out Vegas 3-0 to even the series at 3 games apiece. The game was scoreless until the 3rd period, when Minnesota scored 3 unanswered goals. The turning point came halfway through the period when, with Minnesota up 1-0, Vegas scored to tie it, but the goal was called back because of goaltender interference. Vegas challenged, but the call was upheld, and Vegas was given a delay of game penalty for the failed challenge. Then, Minnesota scored on the ensuing powerplay, and Vegas never came back. Game 7 of the series goes tomorrow night in Vegas.
Two games tonight, both potentially final games of the series. Montreal visits Toronto, with Toronto holding a 3-1 series lead and a 95.5% chance of winning the series, 70.0% finishing it tonight. In the nightcap, Carolina travels to Nashville, with Carolina up 3-2 in the series. We’re giving the Hurricanes an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning tonight’s game.
Yesterday’s Games
East Division, 1 vs. 4
Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5
- New York Islanders win series 4-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5
Central Division, 2 vs. 3
Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4
- Tampa Bay wins series 4-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4
West Division, 2 vs. 3
Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
- Series tied 3-3
- Vegas now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.5%
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas
New simulation results:
- Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
- In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
- Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.5)
- In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.5)
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
North Division, 1 vs. 4
Montreal at Toronto
- Toronto leads series 3-1
- Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning the series
Central Division, 1 vs. 4
Carolina at Nashville
- Carolina leads series 3-2
- Carolina has an 82.2% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina leads series 3-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
- May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
- May 27: Carolina at Nashville
- May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 53.0%
- In 7 games: 29.2%
- Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 17.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders win series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Series tied 3-3
Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
- May 28: Minnesota at Vegas
Simulation results:
- Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 58.0%
- Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 42.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Toronto leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
- May 27: Montreal at Toronto
- May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
- May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 70.0%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 8.4%
- Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 4.5%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
- May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 21.4% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 9.6% 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 9.2% 4 Carolina Hurricanes 9.0% 5 Vegas Golden Knights 9.0% 6 Washington Capitals 8.0% 7 Florida Panthers 6.5% 8 Edmonton Oilers 6.1% 9 Boston Bruins 5.4% 10 Minnesota Wild 4.3% 11 Tampa Bay Lightning 4.1% 12 New York Islanders 2.2% 13 Nashville Predators 1.7% 14 St. Louis Blues 1.6% 15 Winnipeg Jets 1.3% 16 Montreal Canadiens 0.7%